Frazis Capital Podcast

00:00 Why this AI cycle feels fundamentally different.03:00 The shift from chatbots to fully autonomous AI agents.07:00 Productivity explodes as software and workflows are built in minutes.11:00 Security risks of AI with full computer access.15:00 AI swarms and large-scale agent coordination emerge.19:00 Hardware, compute, and memory demand return.23:00 Software development accelerates ~100x.27:00 Legacy SaaS and CRM models face disruption.31:00 Market implications and underestimated software risk.35:00 Healthcare, infrastructure, and AI beneficiaries.39:00 Final thoughts on why this moment matters.

00:00 Mike joins from Thailand and reflects on Southeast Asia’s scale, energy and contrasts.02:00 This AI cycle feels fundamentally different after years of incremental updates.04:00 Productivity leaps as AI moves from copy-paste to orchestrating code and workflows.06:30 Recent breakthroughs suggest AI may already be entering a self-improving phase.09:00 Feedback loops from current usage will materially strengthen next-generation models.11:00 FRA Capital is cancelling major SaaS subscriptions and rebuilding tools internally.13:30 Hands-on AI usage is directly influencing investment positioning and sector views.15:30 The shift reinforces semiconductors and compute while pressuring legacy software.17:30 The buy-versus-build decision is swinging sharply toward in-house AI systems.19:30 Wegovy’s PBS listing signals obesity being treated as a serious medical condition.21:00 AI’s role in healthcare diagnostics continues to expand rapidly.22:30 Wrap-up on why the AI capex and compute cycle likely extends further.

0:00 – Intro0:45 – The AI takeoff moment: why early 2026 feels different2:20 – From ChatGPT to agents: the real step-change in capability4:30 – Senior developers don’t write code anymore: time compression explained6:40 – Agent swarms: why one AI is no longer the point8:30 – What’s still broken and why the gaps are closing fast10:10 – Building a diary + memoir app in days, not months12:40 – AI-powered journaling, email prompts & memory extraction14:40 – Investment meetings solved: auto-generating the next 6 questions16:30 – Vibe coding in real time18:20 – Wealth Wise: automating databases people charge fortunes for20:10 – Replacing expert networks: GLG, Tegus & mass-market disruption22:30 – $100k software projects becoming weeks-long builds24:30 – Phase 1 vs Phase 2 AI: new winners, new losers26:40 – Compute demand explodes: why GPUs, power & energy still win28:40 – Software pressure: seats, subscriptions & enterprise risk30:40 – The terminal replaces the IDE: dev tools under threat32:40 – Marketing becomes the bottleneck: attention software33:20 – Closing thoughts: massive opportunity, few people paying attention

0:00 – Intro0:42 – Nvidia earnings: strong growth but odd details2:10 – Circular Nvidia deals: inventories, AR and “not-real” revenue4:40 – Retail mania: quantum computing, nuclear & Aussie drone stocks7:05 – When the music stops: 60–80% drawdowns in retail favourites9:05 – NeoClouds explained: ex-Bitcoin miners turned AI GPU landlords12:05 – Hyperscalers, Nvidia vs AMD and why GPU economics may crack14:00 – Gemini 3 vs ChatGPT & other models – real edge or hype?16:40 – How AI tools are changing developer workflows and markets18:20 – Frazis’ quant models, 73.5%/82% returns & trading the rips21:10 – CTA flows, max-long to max-short and a trillion in fast money23:40 – Discretionary stocks smashed: Chipotle, Six Flags, Nike & the consumer25:40 – Current positioning: cash levels, biotech pain & healthcare winners27:55 – Hunting the next leg higher: healthcare and niche AI stocks (Astera Labs, Credo, Nvidia)30:10 – Hims & Hers: stalled growth, GLP-1 price war & DTC disruption (Novo, Lilly)32:20 – Aussie small caps: DroneShield, Zip, Technology One & WiseTech34:05 – Software “strangle”: Salesforce, Atlassian, Wix and Figma vs Gemini35:40 – AlphaSense, Tegus, and why most “AI everywhere” UX is terrible36:45 – Australia macro rant: NDIS, housing, government stimulus & the AUD38:00 – Closing thoughts & watching for $100B+ of forced selling

Why markets look “fine” but small caps are quietly crashingThe brutal 50 - 60% wipeouts in quantum, nuclear & neo-cloud stocksHow 2025 became a one-way market dominated by AI & semiconductorsAI CapEx, rate expectations, and why headlines are driving everythingOpenAI vs Google Gemini vs Claude, who’s actually winning the AI race?The uncomfortable truth about Nvidia demand and “financed revenue”Neo-clouds explained: why leasing GPUs may signal weakness, not strengthThe looming AI oversupply risk nobody wants to talk aboutWhy hyperscalers (Microsoft, Amazon) always win in compute cyclesHow our risk models cut exposure before major drawdownsShorting as a defensive tools, reducing risk without timing the marketWhy US biotech quietly became one of the best-performing sectorsGLP-1 drugs, oral weight-loss meds & the next healthcare rotationSoftware stocks at cycle lows, where 2–3x upside could emergeWhy fintech and payments keep disappointing investors“Compounder” crashes: Nike, Lululemon & the end of premium multiplesAussie tech pain: Xero, WiseTech & massive valuation resetsDefence, drones & insider selling, what signals really matterWhat would actually trigger the next broad market sell-offOur 2026 setup: where risk is rising and where opportunity is forming

0:00 – Intro: Mike & Ellianna catch up after Melbourne investor meetings0:45 – Market update: Retail investors driving a red-hot rally2:15 – Quants, institutions, and semiconductors hitting profit targets3:40 – Why Frazis Capital is rotating into healthcare4:30 – Spotlight on Grail: $10B spent chasing a pan-cancer blood test6:10 – The Pathfinder 2 trial and physician skepticism7:40 – FDA approval, adoption challenges, and cash burn9:00 – Clarity Pharmaceuticals: $203M raise and bold head-to-head trial10:40 – Lessons from biotech cycles: Intellia’s 100% rebound12:10 – Quant signals, timing, and managing risk in volatile markets13:40 – Retail euphoria vs. institutional lag — what comes next?15:10 – AI investment boom: data centers, semis, and software plays17:00 – Byrna’s results & the “AI in everything” trend18:20 – When hype meets fundamentals: the AMD-OpenAI deal20:00 – Scaling out, profit-taking, and managing portfolio exposure22:10 – Wrap-up and next week’s preview

00:00 – Intro & welcome to Chris Burns, CEO of Amplia02:00 – Why pancreatic cancer is so deadly & hard to diagnose06:30 – Current treatment options: Gem/Abraxane vs FOLFIRINOX11:20 – Side effects & challenges with chemotherapy15:00 – Why pancreatic cancer is difficult to treat (fibrosis & mutations)19:00 – Amplia’s approach: FAK inhibitors and how they work23:00 – History of FAK inhibitors & Amplia’s drug development story27:00 – ACCENT trial design and early results (response rate, PFS)32:00 – Complete responses & long-term responders (12–18+ months)36:00 – Next steps: Simplicity trial with FOLFIRINOX38:30 – Path to registrational trial & FDA fast track41:00 – Combination opportunities: KRAS inhibitors & ADCs43:00 – Commercial strategy, pricing, partnerships44:30 – Wrap-up & final thoughts

Syntara’s highly anticipated Phase 2 results in myelofibrosis—what the data tells us, why the market sold off, and what might come next in terms of funding or partnership.

Learn more at: www.fraziscapitalpartners.comNvidia’s Q1 PerformanceImpact of the H20 Chip Ban on ChinaMary Meeker: Big Tech CapEx TrendsAutonomous Driving in San Francisco: Waymo vs. UberLidar vs. Vision Debate and Safety ImplicationsLidar Startup Failures and Industry FalloutSpaceX Starship Test Flight & 2026 Mars Launch WindowHumanoid Robots and Potential Economic ImpactAI Attention Economy & ChatGPT vs. Google SearchDeveloper Growth in Google’s EcosystemAWS CapEx Dynamics & Nvidia as Key Beneficiary

HIMS, NU, MELI, AMD & Aussie Biotech

Anteris CEO explains why their new biomimetic heart valve can take serious market share in a $10 billion market. It's currently implanted in over 100 patients, and surgeons are delighted with the results. The market is sleeping on this one...

Mike and Ellianna discuss

#87 - Google earnings, and was that a low in semis and biotech? Mike and Ellianna discuss

Mike and Ellianna discuss the latest market moves.Sections00:00 - US Tariffs and Market Reactions06:35 - Managing Risk12:41 - Opportunities in Tech and Healthcare21:18 - Reddit23:54 - Market Dynamics and Short Selling28:54 - Clarity's Market Position and Future Prospects33:43 - Biotech Sector Valuation and Mispricing35:55 - Interest Rates and Economic Implications39:50 - Future Investment Strategies and Growth Opportunities

00:00 Welcome Back and Market Overview03:05 Navigating the Macro Environment05:59 Company Developments and Fast Track Designations09:11 Short Selling and Market Sentiment12:08 Innovations in PSMA Targeting Agents15:03 Financing Strategies and Market Positioning17:46 Clinical Trials and Sensitivity Improvements21:14 Regulatory Pathways and Market Entry24:00 Future Prospects and Market Dynamics35:30 Market Opportunities and Product Expansion35:59 Advancements in Diagnostics and Treatment39:03 Dose Optimization and Clinical Trials43:59 Patient Responses and Safety Profiles47:02 Future Directions and Phase Three Trials50:59 Navigating the Biotech Landscape52:47 Competitor Analysis and Market Positioning57:57 Innovations in Cancer Treatment

00:00 - Introduction to Radiopharmaceuticals and PSMA03:00 - Current State of PSMA in Prostate Cancer Treatment06:04 - Comparative Analysis: US vs Australia in Radiopharmaceuticals09:02 - Imaging Techniques and Their Impact on Diagnosis12:14 - The Patient Journey: From Diagnosis to Treatment14:56 - Challenges in Sensitivity and Specificity of Imaging17:57 - Post-Treatment Monitoring and Biochemical Recurrence21:09 - Innovations in Radiopharmaceuticals and Future Directions23:57 - Market Dynamics and Regulatory Challenges26:56 - Conclusion and Future of Prostate Cancer Imaging36:05 - Advancements in Targeted Therapies for Prostate Cancer41:12 - The Future of Combination Therapy42:52 - Imaging Innovations in Cancer Detection44:45 - Challenges in Treatment Approval and Reimbursement51:46 - The Role of Multiple Targets in Cancer Therapy54:40 - Exploring New Agents and Their Applications01:00:14 - The Need for Improved Reimbursement Pathways

Equity sell off - the real deal? Strategy update from Michael Frazis

00:0 True Customer Love and Explosive Growth02:05 - Portfolio update04:09 - Hims: A Case Study in True Customer Love and Explosive Growth07:18 - Defining True Customer Love11:33 - The Future of Hims and Market Dynamics in GLP-1sClarity's Fast-Tracked Approval and Market Response27:06 - Short Selling in CU629:59 - If you want to be valued like a US biotech company, you have to be capitalized like one32:10 - Clarity's FDA trial timeline36:33 - Updates from Nubank and MercadoLibre 40:54 - Customer Love and Explosive Growth44:45 - Identifying Explosive Growth Opportunities52:02 - Influence of Tech Leaders on Market Trends59:30 - Long-Term Perspectives on Semiconductor Growth

#82: Ellianna joins to talk DeepSeek, winners and losers, and 2024 in review

Timestamps 00:00 - The Rise of DeepSeek: A Game Changer in AI 02:52 - Impact on Valuations and Capital Expenditure 05:55 - Investment Strategies in 2025 08:52 - Focus on Australian Biotech and Healthcare Takeaways DeepSeek's AI system is a major disruptor in the market. The release of model weights challenges existing AI business models. Investors are reconsidering large investments in foundational models. Apple and AWS may benefit from the efficiency of DeepSeek's model. Semiconductor investments are highly cyclical and risky. Startups may struggle to secure funding in a downturn. Australian biotech presents interesting investment opportunities. Clarity Pharmaceuticals is a notable player in the biotech space. The Australian market is underperforming compared to Wall Street. Government hiring is impacting the private sector's performance. titles DeepSeek, AI, investment, market impact, semiconductor, Australian biotech, valuations, data centers, technology, healthcare

#80: Aliens, Syntara and the NDIS with Arjun Balaji

Paul Anderson, CEO of Orthocell, discusses the company's collagen-based medical devices aimed at regenerative medicine. He covers their products for bone regeneration, nerve repair, and tendon repair, highlighting their clinical success and market potential. The conversation also covers the company's strategic partnerships, regulatory approvals, and future plans for expansion, particularly in the U.S. market. Paul emphasizes the company's commitment to manufacturing in Australia. Takeaways - Orthocell specializes in regenerative medicine with a focus on collagen-based products. - The company has developed three main products for bone, nerve, and tendon repair. - Their bone regeneration product is approved in multiple jurisdictions, including the U.S. and Europe. - The nerve repair product aims to improve surgical outcomes by reducing scar tissue. - Clinical trials have shown an 85% success rate in nerve repair surgeries. - The market for their products is estimated to be worth $3.5 billion globally. - Orthocell plans to enter the U.S. market with a 510(k) submission by the end of 2024. - The company has raised $17 million to support its U.S. expansion efforts. - Their manufacturing process is based in Australia, emphasizing local production. - The leadership team includes experienced professionals with strong industry connections. Chapters 00:14 - Overview of Orthocell and Its Products 03:51 - Bone Regeneration Product and Market Potential 06:28 - Nerve Repair Product: Innovation and Benefits 13:44 - Clinical Outcomes and Patient Impact 19:02 - Market Competition and Future Directions 24:13 - Entering the US Market 25:32 - Regulatory Pathways and Approvals 27:14 - Marketing Strategies and Clinical Data 29:50 - Product Differentiation and Competitive Edge 32:05 - Market Sizing and Revenue Potential 34:59 - Pricing Strategy and Economic Benefits 38:18 - Sales Distribution and Partnerships 39:32 - Financial Position and Board Strength 42:41 -Future Milestones and Expectations Keywords Orthocell, regenerative medicine, collagen, nerve repair, medical devices, clinical trials, market strategy, healthcare innovation, product launch, financial growth

Michael Frazis interviews Marc Voigt, CEO of Imutep, discussing the challenges of lung cancer, the evolution of immunotherapy, and the innovative approaches Imutep is taking in cancer treatment. They explore clinical trial data, commercial opportunities, and advancements in autoimmune disease research, while also addressing the financial health and future directions of Immutep. 00:00 Introduction to Lung Cancer and Its Challenges 02:32 Understanding Treatment Options for Lung Cancer 05:22 The Evolution of Immunotherapy 08:00 Imutep's Innovative Approach to Cancer Treatment 10:39 Clinical Trials and Promising Data 13:47 Collaboration with Merck and Future Prospects 25:48 Clinical Trials and Efficacy Analysis 28:03 Commercial Opportunities in Oncology 31:15 Acquisition Trends in Biotech 31:38 Advancements in Head and Neck Cancer Treatment 37:32 Exploring Autoimmune Disease Treatments 45:26 Financial Strategies and Investment Priorities Keywords lung cancer, immunotherapy, clinical trials, cancer treatment, autoimmune diseases, Imutep, Keytruda, cancer research, market opportunities, healthcare innovation

Michael Frazis and Arjun Balaji discuss the current state of the markets, the shifts in healthcare and the performance of small-cap tech stocks. They analyze the challenges faced by major pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer and Moderna, particularly in light of political changes and scrutiny. The discussion also delves into the role of advertising in the pharmaceutical industry, the impact of AI tools on research and investment strategies, and the potential of proprietary and synthetic data in AI development. The conversation concludes with thoughts on the future of search engines and the unique data advantages held by companies like Tesla.

00:00 Introduction and Background 02:02 Political Landscape and Global Trends 05:58 Australia's secret One Child policy 09:59 COVID-19 Policies and Public Trust 13:49 Biotech Regulation and the FDA 18:08 Emerging Trends in Biotech 26:01AI in Drug Discovery and Development 30:03 AI's Role in Drug Development 34:49 Challenges in Drug Trials and Regulation 40:00 The Debate on Drug Marketing and Advertising 45:01 The Future of AI and Big Tech Regulation 55:00 Big Tech's Regulatory Landscape 59:04 Market Dynamics and Investment Strategies

#75: Big tech roundout with Meta and why the shtcos are rallying

Amazon, Microsoft and Google report! (and an election)

#73: Strategy Update - cars, semis, smartphones and algorithms

#72: Hashan de Silva joins us to cover CurvebeamAI, Syntara, a new approach to Alzheimer's and his new fund

#71: Double or Nothing - Misha's new fund, the crash (and recovery), driverless cars, and UK turmoil

Dr Alan Taylor discusses Clarity Pharmaceuticals in depth.

It must be a uniquely modern horror to see a drone flying towards you with a grenade strapped, and it must be all the worse to know your last moments are being filmed. Drones are now ubiquitous across the battlefields of Ukraine, Gaza, and shipping lanes in the Middle East. Costing relative pittances, cheap drones loaded with explosives can destroy military hardware worth millions, or in the case of ships, billions of dollars. They can combine in swarms to overwhelm even the most advanced defence systems, and mask deadlier missiles and weaponry.  This new asymmetry has changed the battlefield, so it was timely to sit down with Oleg Vornik, CEO of Droneshield, to discuss how their technology can detect and disable these deadly low-cost swarms.  There are handheld versions sold to soldiers and spies, larger systems for tanks and ships, and larger systems still with a broader range of senses for airfields, bases, and civilian sites like prisons and airports. Drones can be shot down with guns, caught in a net by other drones, or destroyed by high-tech lasers and microwaves. Droneshield specializes in defending against cheap drones that are causing so much havoc by jamming their communications and forcing them down.  With the world seemingly in flames it’s not surprising that Droneshield’s growth has been explosive. Revenues jumped from $17m in 2023, to $55 million in 2024, and could reach over $90 million in 2025.  The opportunity is substantial, perhaps less than 1% penetrated globally, as most military units around the world are entirely undefended. Detection and monitoring is playing an increasing part of Droneshield's business, as their software can track and monitor drones across an entire battlefield.  The civilian opportunity is perhaps even greater.  Drone sightings closed Gatwick airport for three days in December 2018, and the perpetrators were never discovered. Prisons, powerplants, architectural sites like Sydney Opera House are exposed.  I personally know people who have seen drones flying over their homes, and are concerned these could be theives testing whether anyone is in, or God forbid, photographing children.  There's a good chance within a few years that anti-drone technology is as ubiquitous as drones themselves are today, and Droneshield is particularly well positioned given its ability to defend against commercially available models that can be bought in-store in all major cities and ordered online from Amazon and Alibaba to almost anywhere in the world.  Oleg shared some fascinating anecdotes around their use in the military, prisons, and when Droneshield's technology defended political leaders from attack. I'm sure you'll find this conversation as interesting as I did! Michael  Timestamps0:03 – Oleg introduces DroneShield1:02 – How it works2:10 – Autonomous drones and AI on the modern battlefield – how Droneshield fits in11:02 – Droneshield’s products22:16 – Additional use cases for DroneShield products23:37 – The different ways to destroy a drone30:49 – Future of drone warfare and Droneshield’s product pipeline37:55 – Partnering with US and Australian defence agencies43:36 – The civilian opportunity, prisons, airfields, stadiums49:00 – Manufacturing of DroneShield products50:46 – Financial overview and the investment case

Dodging the bloodbath in midcap tech

Clarity Pharmaceuticals Success: Clarity Pharmaceuticals reported a significant response in a patient with metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer. The patient received two cycles of copper 67 Biss. PSMA, and after six months from the second dose, there was no evidence of PSA, indicating a potential cure. This is noteworthy because the patient had undergone extensive prior treatments, including chemotherapy and androgen deprivation therapy. Trial Progress and Market Potential: Clarity Pharmaceuticals has been releasing data as each cohort progresses in their trial, currently in the fourth cohort of phase one. The market potential for effective prostate cancer treatment is significant, estimated at over $6 billion. The company's stock is trading at around $650 million, with considerable interest from both investors and pharmaceutical companies due to the promising trial results. Director Confidence and Financials: Directors have shown confidence in the company by purchasing stock with cash, signaling belief in the company's prospects. Clarity Pharmaceuticals has a substantial cash reserve of $150 million AUD, providing a strong financial position for future trials and developments. Curve Beam AI Progress: Curve Beam AI reported progress with six device sales and orders for five more devices in one month, indicating a potential annual run rate of 60. The company is working on expanding its device's approved usage beyond foot and ankle to include hip and knee, which could significantly increase its market potential. Financial Challenges and Future Prospects: Curve Beam AI faces financial constraints with approximately $11.8 million in cash, expecting to last until September 2023. The company's success relies on increasing its installed base to maximize revenue from software updates and future developments. Trans Medics' Strong Performance: Trans Medics reported a 133% increase in revenue compared to the previous year, with $12 million in net income for the quarter. The company's profitability amidst significant revenue growth highlights the effectiveness of its platform and pricing power. Market Trends and Risk Management: Market trends show a divergence between companies with strong performance like Trans Medics and those with weaker results like AMD. Applying quantitative risk management strategies can reduce drawdowns and optimize returns, as demonstrated by Trans Medics' performance. Comparison with AMD: AMD reported declines in gaming and embedded segment revenue, highlighting the importance of sticking with market leaders like Nvidia. Nvidia's consistent growth and profitability contrast with AMD's weaker financial performance, emphasizing the benefits of choosing market leaders. Conclusion: The podcast concludes with reflections on the updates from Clarity Pharmaceuticals, Curve Beam AI, Trans Medics, and AMD, highlighting the importance of strategic investment decisions and risk management strategies in navigating the market.

Episode #66: A crack in the semi facade? Angus Walker joins us

Interesting perspectives from Microsoft

Semis, Tesla and interest rates, what we're looking at right now

The three revolutions of 2023 and where they will go in 2024. And our top ASX pick...

Medtech, liquidity, and talking computers

Bond yields hit cycle highs, medtech takes a GLP-pounding, Nvidia and Microsoft do some cool science, and all roads in semiconductors lead to TSMC.

Double or Nothing #16: Qantas scandal, an aggressive move in capital markets, a new IPO, and dodgy Government energy data.

Ozempic, AI in the sex industry, drug discovery, Stefan Zweig

Double or Nothing #14: Michael Frazis and Misha Saul talk markets

State of the Market: the winners and losers in big tech cost outs

Michael Frazis and Misha Saul talk Silicon Valley bank and Submarines

Double or Nothing Episode #12: ChatGPT, Cortes and the Aztecs.

Michael Frazis gives an update on markets and technology.

Misha Saul and Michael Frazis talk markets

Double or Nothing #10: Crowdstrike, inflation, 2023

0:12 – Latest (deflationary) inflation data  6:42 – Investing strategies  10:30 – Tesla’s journey and the switch to self-driving capabilities  12:56 – David Walsh’s presentation at Sohn Conference on professional gambling  14:46 – Grindr IPO  21:36 – Recap of Blackbird’s Sunrise startup conference and thoughts on private markets  31:44 – Lessons learned from market downturns  38:25 – Cyclicality of the semiconductor industry  39:31 – Life science industry outlook