Gordon Kerr's Credit Compass: Navigating European Credit Markets

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores how geopolitical shocks and inflation are reshaping the European credit outlook, delaying recovery and raising stagflation risks. Gordon also examines the growing influence of Big Tech in credit markets as firms like Alphabet issue massive debt to fund artificial intelligence (AI), creating both opportunities and tensions for investors.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines what weaker surveys, tighter lending conditions, and cautious issuance mean for credit markets and central bank policy. Gordon also discusses how rising inflation expectations, softer consumer sentiment, and delayed business investment are shaping Europe’s uncertain growth outlook.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines why markets are focused on Britain, Italy, and France—as higher yields and limited fiscal flexibility raise new questions for European credit. Gordon also looks at the UK’s artificial intelligence (AI)-driven growth story, Germany’s fragile recovery, and what the energy shock continues to mean for issuers, spreads, and investor sentiment.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines how the IMF views the Strait of Hormuz disruption as reshaping Europe’s macro-credit outlook through slower growth, energy sensitivity, and renewed inflation risk. Gordon also explores Hungary’s political shift, the ECB’s banking reform proposals, and what easing volatility, but higher yields, mean for European credit markets.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses how European credit markets are navigating a complex mix of energy shocks, policy intervention, and rising refinancing risk. Gordon unpacks what Brent backwardation is signalling, how governments are responding, and why dispersion across credit is set to widen.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores the European Central Bank’s (ECB) increasingly hawkish tone, the tug-of-war between inflation and growth expectations, and what recent data signals for rates. Gordon also assesses a potential UK consumer boost from auto loan compensation and improving housing activity. All-in higher yields are creating more attractive entry points for credit investors despite ongoing volatility.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses how energy prices and geopolitical tensions are impacting European economies and credit markets. Gordon provides a sharp look at the rising energy prices rippling through inflation, policy, and credit markets—and why this shock may play out differently from 2022.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines how rising energy prices and geopolitical tensions are reshaping expectations for European monetary policy and credit markets. He also explores EU capital markets integration, central bank signals, and what softer UK data means for spreads and issuance.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines how the recent conflict involving Iran has influenced energy markets and what that means for Europe’s economic and credit outlook. We discuss Europe’s exposure to oil and natural gas prices, the mixed signals coming from German economic data, and how credit markets have responded to rising uncertainty.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, unpacks the impact of the recent conflict in Iran, a UK nonbank lending scare, rising artificial intelligence (AI) disruption fears in software, and what widening spreads really signal. Beneath the headlines, the story may not be systemic stress—but growing dispersion.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines early signs of stabilisation in the European economy, including improving German growth data and renewed policy momentum. We also assess the European Central Bank’s (ECB) expanded liquidity framework and the recent return of investor flows to European markets.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines bank lending views via several recent surveys. Gordon also investigates recent large European bank results and whether their views differ.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines France’s budget outcome, shifting growth dynamics across the euro area, record-setting issuance, and what tight valuations mean for credit investors. The message is constructive—but with limited room for error as markets price in good news.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, reviews the World Economic Forum (WEF) Davos 2026 conference. Gordon also explores the recent trade deal with India and some recent data that hints at positive economic signs for Europe seeping through the cracks.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines a number of new developments in Europe. Gordon explores recent trade tensions and geopolitical risks that remain in the fore, but notes that low defaults, easing rate expectations, and improving sentiment continue to support a positive European story.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines early signals from UK and European consumer data. Gordon also explores Europe’s progress on the long-awaited Mercosur trade agreement and its strategic importance, as well as how European Union defence spending is beginning to translate into real economic activity.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, reviews Europe’s start to the year. As the region faces a year of development, a stable start to the data presents a positive backdrop, which Gordon outlines in his recent article in the Business Post (link: https://www.businesspost.ie/analysis-opinion/gordon-kerr-why-ai-defence-and-trade-hold-the-key-to-europes-growth-in-2026/).

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, reviews Europe’s standout year in credit markets—from record issuance to tight spreads—and explores the forces behind the strength. Gordon then outlines a ChatGPT synthesis of 60 industry outlooks to reveal the emerging consensus for 2026 and potential tail risks.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses two structural shifts facing Europe as 2026 approaches: Bulgaria’s entry into the euro area and the early stages of the Dutch pension transition. One adds institutional depth; the other may reshape flows, duration demand, and asset-allocation trends across the continent.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines rising fiscal and financial stability concerns across the UK and Europe, from the UK’s “buy now, pay later” budget to France’s tightening fiscal path. Gordon also discusses Bank of England and ECB [European Central Bank] research about the shifting risks in the private credit and insurance sectors.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores Europe’s latest insolvency reform, Italy’s “golden power” dispute, and expectations for the UK’s upcoming budget. Together, they illustrate how regulation, politics, and fiscal credibility continue to shape Europe’s evolving credit landscape—offering both progress and persistent friction.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores the powerful intersection of AI and energy—how data-centre expansion is reshaping electricity demand, the grid bottlenecks slowing Europe’s transition, and what that means for credit markets. He also discusses the UK economy, where policy uncertainty tests investor confidence ahead of the Budget.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, outlines the way AI is changing the economics of labour, productivity, and credit—fast. Gordon examines how that’s feeding into hiring freezes, pay restraint, and a surge in European private credit flows, and how that is impacting credit markets.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses the recent growth data, the surprising country standouts, and what is behind the momentum. Gordon also explores how investment themes could help to support the nascent growth in the region.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, unpacks the signals behind the continent’s fragile recovery: what central banks are really saying, how European lenders are managing risk, and why cautious optimism may finally be warranted. Gordon explores what these crosscurrents mean for growth, credit, and investor sentiment across Europe and the UK.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, dives into the interplay between energy markets and European corporate credit. We explore how unusually low oil costs and a contango futures curve are signalling more than just margin relief. Gordon then unpacks recent earnings surprises in Europe, with a focus on forward guidance and changing expectations.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores some insight from the society of professional economists annual event. He further comments on developments from the Eurogroup ECOFIN meetings and covers some perspective on recent market volatility.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores the views of chief economists across the globe. In particular, their views on the direction and potential for Europe. Gordon also reviews the developing situation in France and its impact on markets.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, reviews recent business surveys from McKinsey and Lloyds. Their views provide some insight into the prospect for growth and employment in the months ahead. Further, Gordon adds some colour to the UK’s prospects out of the recent Labour Party conference.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, reviews recent developments of the US-UK relationship following as a state visit from the US that brought new investment commitments. Further, Gordon highlights the region’s uneven path to recovery and the risks the China-US trade war is presenting to Europe. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, investigates the potential impact of the plans outlined in the State of the European Union address by Ursula von der Leyen. The UK continues to struggle along, but a US visit could offer some reprieve as growth outlooks for European economies are revised upwards. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, outlines the challenges facing the governments of France and the UK. France grapples with political turmoil and the UK delays its budget, yet bond markets remain resilient with issuance staying strong. Further, Gordon outlines the challenges facing Europe’s automakers from electric vehicle (EV) competition and fragile supply chains. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, outlines the challenges facing Europe’s largest economies as they are tested by their budgetary plans. Further, Gordon provides some highlights of the bright signs of change starting to emerge in the eurozone. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, outlines how the new EU-US tariff agreement is affecting European auto manufacturers, as revealed through their Q2 earnings and updated guidance. Further, Gordon provides some insight into the UK auto finance market, UK directors’ views, and European bank stability. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, outlines the European Union’s new trade deal with the US. Gordon analyses the impact this deal may have and what is still missing, as well as highlights an example of the types of divergent data signals we are likely to see in the months ahead as economies adjust to the new norms. Further, Gordon highlights the latest regulatory proposal for the securitisation market. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, highlights the growing fiscal pressures for the UK and France alongside Germany’s bold investment-led growth push. Gordon outlines what these divergent strategies mean for credit markets, with a closer look at shifting survey expectations on expected defaults. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, highlights the impact of the heatwave on Europe. Gordon also discusses his look forward as outlined in his recent publication, The Forward Look—European and UK Credit Views: Q3 2025. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, highlights the shifting global trade order, with the European Union balancing a fine line between the US and China. Gordon discusses the challenges in Germany, the benefits this could bring to Europe, and bond investor scrutiny of European governments. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, outlines a number of tailwinds supporting European credit investment. The accelerating flow of capital into European private credit is set to continue. Gordon outlines these private credit developments as well as improvements in trade positions and regulatory changes. Further, Gordon highlights some of the outlooks for the second half from several investment firms. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, outlines the improving sentiment in Europe among consumers and corporate management. Gordon also comments on the increased spending plans by NATO countries and their impact on European economies. In addition, he highlights the heightened uncertainty and the market’s apparent indifference to potential risks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, highlights the impact of escalating conflict and its effect on European energy prices. Gordon outlines what this means for inflation and growth as well as the impact of the UK’s spending review. Further, Gordon comments on banking consolidation in Europe as more cross-border deals are emerging. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, highlights the outlook for defaults in Europe, according to a Deutsche Bank study. Gordon also covers recent data in the UK and what that may mean for rates. Further, Gordon recorded this episode in Spain while attending the Global ABS securitisation conference, where a positive tone is developing for the asset class in Europe. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, highlights a fresh challenge to global investors in a small section of the US administration’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” that could have far-reaching implications outside the US. Gordon also outlines some potential upcoming changes to securitisation regulations and explores the conclusions from a World Economic Forum survey of economists. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist can’t escape trade discussion. Gordon explores the early negotiations between Europe and the US. He also outlines the shifting sentiment in Europe, UK growth expectations, and regulatory changes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores yet another trade deal, this time between the UK and the European Union. Gordon delves into central bank debates as policies approach neutral and the hawks and doves split. This leads to a discussion of market valuation and taking stock of where we go from here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores the UK’s new trade deals with India and the US. Gordon further delves into the prospects for European trade negotiations as the US turns its attention to the bloc. He also examines the Bank of England’s rate cut, the reaction in credit markets, and the growing pressure on Ireland’s pharma sector amid US price reforms. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores how early signals from April’s Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and GDP data reflect the market's reaction to newly announced US trade tariffs. Gordon unpacks regional dynamics across the eurozone and UK, assesses the resilience of European manufacturing, and takes a closer look at what’s driving growth beneath the surface. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, hosts Van Hesser, our Chief Strategist, to discuss their new research series, The Forward Look. Gordon and Van—pulling on themes from the recently published inaugural report—highlight the outlook for the US economy as well as Van’s views on the US consumer and the direction of credit markets. Further, Gordon covers highlights from recent bank and financial service firm results. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, dissects recent earnings results to reveal the relative appeal of Europe to investors. As Gordon discusses, risks remain for companies exposed to the US, but so far most European corporates have attractive qualities to global investors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses the pause in US global tariffs and how this presents investors with an opportunity to reassess the potential impacts and prospects for negotiated terms. Gordon also highlights where to look for insights in the weeks ahead. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices