Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌍 Trump & Xi Meet in Beijing — What It Means for Ag MarketsTrump and Xi sat down for a 2+ hour meeting in Beijing, and the agricultural world is watching closely. China renewed import licenses for hundreds of US beef plants 🐄, making beef exporters the early winners. Soybean traders, however, were left wanting more — no new purchase agreement was announced, sending grain markets mostly lower. Headlines are still developing, so stay tuned.🌽 E15 Clears the House — But the Senate Fight Is Just BeginningThe House passed year-round nationwide E15 sales 218–203 with bipartisan support. With ethanol trading at its widest discount to gasoline in 20 years, the economic case is strong — but oil-state senators and even the American Soybean Association have concerns. It's going to be a battle.🌾 Kansas Wheat Tour Paints a Tough PictureYield estimates are coming in well below last year across both northwest and southwest Kansas. Northwest came in at 38.3 bpa vs. 50.5 last year. The final state estimate drops today—don't miss it.🌧️ Rain Is Coming to the Corn Belt1-2" of rainfall is on the way for much of IL, IA, IN, MO, OH, MN, ND, and SD—welcome news for newly planted fields. But temperatures are also running 4.2°F above normal, so it's a mixed bag for crop development.🌱 EU Moves to Tackle Fertilizer CrisisNitrogen prices in Europe are up 40% since December. The EU is expected to announce a plan next week to stockpile fertilizers and support affected farmers ahead of winter planting season.🥩 JBS Profits Crater 56%Tight US cattle supplies crushed JBS's North American beef margins, dragging net income down to $220.6 million. Meanwhile, their Brazilian operations hit record Q1 sales. The meat giant also flagged rising corn prices ahead due to weather and fertilizer costs.⛽ Ethanol Production Hits Seasonal HighWeekly output hit 1.08M barrels/day — up 6.1% year over year. Margins remain healthy at 10–45 cents positive across the Corn Belt, even as stocks tightened to 24.87 million barrels.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 US wheat production is headed for its lowest level since 1972 — the USDA's May WASDE pegged the 2026/27 crop at 1.56 billion bushels, down 21% from last year and 10% below trade expectations. HRW wheat is forecast at just 515 million bushels, the lowest since 1957, as severe drought continues to devastate the Plains—and wheat futures hit their daily trading limits following the report.🫘 US soybean production is projected at 4.44 billion bushels — the second-highest on record — even as soaring input costs tied to the Middle East conflict weigh on farmers. Both US and global new-crop soybean carryout came in smaller than expected, giving bulls something to hold onto.🌽 Corn production is forecast at 16 billion bushels, down 6% year-over-year but slightly above trade guesses. Both corn and soybean futures closed higher on the day despite the broadly mixed USDA data.🤝 US and Chinese officials are deep in talks over Chinese purchases of American corn, soybeans, sorghum, and DDGs — with timing and volume still unresolved ahead of the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing tonight. Farmers want binding commitments, not social media posts, after recent informal announcements proved unreliable.🏛️ Senator John Hoeven is pushing for $17 billion in additional farm aid, including $3 billion for specialty crops, likely as a supplemental disaster relief package. The support is aimed at keeping current producers afloat and bringing the next generation back to the farm.📈 Inflation hit a 3-year high in April, with the CPI up 3.8% year-over-year—driven largely by energy costs surging nearly 18% annually amid the Iran war. The national average for regular unleaded now sits at $4.50 per gallon.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 US winter wheat is in crisis — only 28% of the crop is rated good-to-excellent, the worst rating since 1996 (excluding 2022), while 40% sits in poor-to-very-poor condition. The top 5 hard red winter wheat states are averaging a devastating 59% poor-to-very-poor rating as drought grips the Plains.📈 Grain futures surged Monday ahead of the USDA's big WASDE report and the highly anticipated Trump-Xi summit. Corn, soybeans, and wheat all pushed higher as traders bet on revived Chinese purchases and monitored worsening crop conditions.⛽ E15 ethanol could go year-round nationwide if a House vote passes this week, backed by bipartisan support — but the oil industry is pushing back hard. With wholesale ethanol at its widest discount to gasoline in 20 years, the economic case for E15 has never been stronger.🌽 The USDA dropped its first look at 2026/27 crop balance sheets today — and with ample supply and bearish headwinds, prices could face downward pressure. Initial corn and soy yield estimates are pegged at 183 bpa and 53 bpa, respectively.💊 Mosaic is slashing phosphate production by ~10% due to sulfur supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict squeezing margins from both sides. Additional cuts could be coming if Middle East tensions don't ease soon.🐄 Trump pumped the brakes on beef import quota removal after fierce backlash from ranchers and lawmakers—cattle futures whipsawed on the news. A similar policy last fall failed to lower beef prices and cratered the cattle market instead.🚢 US corn and soybean export inspections remain robust, with corn up 30% year-over-year and soybeans up a stunning 49% vs. last year. China alone accounted for 52% of soybean inspections, and flash sales of corn to Mexico and South Korea were confirmed Monday.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🚨 Trump rejected Iran's counterproposal to the latest US peace offer, calling their demands—including gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the waterway—"totally unacceptable." Iran resumed attacks Sunday targeting the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait; Trump travels to China this week to urge Beijing to pressure Tehran toward a deal. Crude oil futures are trading higher on the news. 🛢️---📊 CFTC COMMITMENT OF TRADERS (Week ending May 5)🌽 Corn: Funds were net buyers of 79k contracts, bringing the net long to 345k — the largest since Feb 2025 and 84% of the modern-era "max" net long. 🫘 Soybeans: Funds were net buyers of 37k contracts, bringing the net long to 214k—the largest since Dec 2025 and 89% of the modern-era "max" net long.🌾 SRW Wheat: Funds were net sellers of 21k contracts on the week.---📈 FRIDAY MARKET RECAP🫘 Soybeans were sharply higher — Nov26 +16¢ to ~$11.90/bu—on optimism that China may make a small purchase ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting later this week. 🌽 Corn followed — Dec26 +4¢ to ~$4.94/bu—supported by elevated crude oil and the ongoing US-Iran conflict. 🌾 Wheat also gained on crude strength and persistent drought concerns.---📋 USDA WASDE — Tuesday, 11am CSTUSDA releases its monthly Crop Production & WASDE report Tuesday, including our first look at new crop (26/27) US and world balance sheets. USDA is expected to use Feb Ag Outlook yields (corn 183.0 bpa / beans 53.0 bpa) and March acreage numbers (corn 95.3M ac / beans 84.7M ac). With ample supply projections and several bearish factors in play, the outlook leans to the downside. ---🏦 FED & MACROGoldman Sachs now expects the first rate cut in December 2026, followed by another in March 2027 — both later than previously forecast — as elevated energy costs keep core inflation near 3%, well above the Fed's 2% target. Goldman also lowered its US recession probability to 25%, down 5 points, though still above the pre-Iran-war estimate of 20%.---⛽ FUEL PRICESNational average gasoline sits near $4.52/gal this morning, up sharply from $3.14/gal a year ago. Diesel sits near $5.64/gal vs. $3.52/gal a year ago, approaching the all-time record of $5.82 set in June 2022.

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG🌾 Wheat futures tumbled Thursday as KC HRW led the selloff, dropping nearly 20 cents, while SRW held up better with only a 5-cent loss. Rain hit parts of western KS and eastern CO, but many on the ground say it may be too little, too late. 👀 The Kansas Wheat Commission crop tour is coming up next week!🌽 Corn and soybeans bounced back late Thursday after hitting daily lows, with Dec26 corn recovering from $4.83 to close near $4.895/bu. Nov26 soybeans also clawed back about 9 cents from their lows.💣 Geopolitical tensions flared near the Strait of Hormuz as US and Iranian forces clashed Thursday. No ships were hit, and a ceasefire technically remains in place — but WTI crude is trading near $94/bbl this morning after bottoming at $89.85/bbl. Iran is expected to respond to a US peace proposal within days. 🛢️🇧🇷 Brazil's corn crop is shrinking. Agroconsult pegged production at 140.5mmt, down 7% year-over-year, with the key second crop on track to fall nearly 10%. USDA sits at 132mmt — a big gap between the two estimates.🌧️ Drought continues to grip the Plains. 70% of US winter wheat acres are now in drought, and conditions deteriorated further in NE, KS, and OK last week. The Corn Belt stayed mostly dry, which helped planting progress.🚢 A rare hantavirus outbreak on a cruise ship has health officials monitoring dozens of passengers across at least 5 US states. The Andes virus strain is unusual because it can spread person-to-person. WHO says overall public risk remains low. 🦠📉 Export sales came in soft. Corn sales totaled 1.3mmt for the week ending April 30 — down 15% week-over-week. Soybean sales hit a marketing year low at just 141,900mt, while wheat sales also missed expectations at 78,800mt.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱💰 Fertilizer companies are cashing in on the Iran conflict. CF Industries and Nutrien both reported roughly 20% increases in quarterly sales as nitrogen fertilizer prices surged. Both companies also posted substantial gains in adjusted EPS. Since the conflict began, urea prices in New Orleans have jumped about 36%. 📈 Meanwhile, US natural gas prices haven't risen as sharply as other regions, allowing fertilizer producers to capture stronger profit margins. Despite elevated prices, fertilizer demand is expected to stay strong as farmers still need nutrients to maintain crop yields.☮️🛢️ The US and Iran may be nearing a peace agreement. Washington submitted a one-page memorandum of understanding outlining a plan to gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the US blockade on Iranian ports. Iran has not yet accepted the proposal, with leadership indicating parts of the deal are unrealistic. 📉 The announcement sent stocks surging and oil prices tumbling—US crude fell roughly 7% to settle near $95/bbl. The nearby Jun26 WTI contract trades near $93/bbl this morning after peaking above $105/bbl earlier this week. That $12/bbl selloff in less than 24 hours weighed heavily on the grain complex.🌽📉 Grain futures tumbled Wednesday on peace deal prospects. The Dec26 corn contract fell nearly 11 cents to settle at $4.90/bu. The Nov26 soybean contract declined 14 cents to close near $11.76/bu. Traders are watching next week's Trump-Xi meeting, though the likelihood of China returning to buy large volumes of US soybeans remains low. 🌾 Wheat also moved lower—Jul26 Chicago wheat fell ~11 cents to $6.17/bu, while Jul26 Kansas City wheat slipped 3 cents to $6.87/bu.⛽ US ethanol production ticked up last week. Weekly output came in at 1.02 million barrels per day, up 1% vs. the prior week but down 2.2% vs. the same week last year. Ethanol stocks rose to 26.02 million barrels, +1% week-over-week and +2.5% year-over-year. Ethanol margins across the Corn Belt remain strong at 5 to 45 cents positive based on Reuters data.🇧🇷🌱 Brazil's soybean acreage is projected to increase only slightly in 2026/2027. Rising fertilizer costs driven by the Middle East conflict are limiting expansion incentives. Additionally, the potential for a strong El Niño is weighing on acreage decisions — this weather pattern would raise drought risk in northern and west-central regions while increasing excessive rainfall risk in southern Brazil.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Oklahoma's winter wheat crop is on track for a historically poor season, with crop tour estimates coming in at 47.8 million bushels — nearly half the 10-year average and down 55% from last year, despite farmers planting 6% more acres. Dry conditions continue to grip the region, with 84% of the state experiencing some level of drought. The Kansas wheat tour is up next, where similarly disappointing numbers are expected. Meanwhile, the Texas wheat crop is battling both drought and a widespread disease outbreak tied to the wheat curl mite, with 56% of the crop rated poor to very poor.In Europe, corn futures surged to a near two-year high amid supply concerns, with French acreage expected to fall ~15% and Romania's crop projected to be its smallest in over a decade. High fertilizer costs linked to the Strait of Hormuz closure are a major driver. Back in the US, corn and soybean futures pulled back Tuesday on farmer selling and lower crude prices, while wheat futures slipped on forecasted Plains rainfall — though it's unlikely to make a meaningful dent in drought damage.Gas prices are surging, with the national average hitting $4.48/gallon — up $1.32 from a year ago — and diesel sitting at $5.66. Crude remains above $100/barrel with no resolution in sight on the US-Iran front. Farmer sentiment dipped in April per the Purdue/CME Ag Barometer, with input costs and availability remaining top concerns. And ADM raised its 2026 outlook, citing biofuel policy tailwinds and expectations of China returning to normal soybean buying in Q4.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Crude oil prices surged more than 4% Monday after Iran targeted US vessels and struck the UAE, reigniting fears that the four-week ceasefire could collapse. The move sent soybeans up 14 cents to near $11.97/bu and corn up roughly 6 cents to near $5.05/bu, with wheat also advancing on expected Plains rainfall.US winter wheat conditions remain historically poor—the top 5 HRW states (KS, OK, TX, CO, NE) are rated just 14% good-excellent with 52% poor-to-very-poor. Nationally, 37% of the crop is rated poor-to-very-poor, well above the 5-year average of 27%. Corn planting reached 38% complete, ahead of the 34% average, while soybean planting hit 33%, well above the 23% average.On the export front, corn inspections came in strong at 80 million bushels — up 22% week-over-week and 25% vs. last year. Soybean and wheat shipments came in near the low end of expectations. China accounted for roughly 45% of weekly inspections.The US is urging China to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Treasury Secretary Bessent noted China buys ~90% of Iran's energy exports. Trump and Xi are expected to meet May 14th. Meanwhile, China ordered its companies to disregard US sanctions on private refiners tied to Iranian oil purchases.Tyson Foods posted $260M in net income last quarter, up sharply from $7M a year ago, despite a $240M loss in its beef segment driven by tight cattle supplies. Chicken profit hit $505M. Ag Secretary Rollins flagged the administration's ongoing investigation into the big four meatpackers.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Frost risk is rising across the Corn Belt this week as temperatures trend below normal, particularly in northern areas. Heavy rain is also expected to slow planting progress. Storm systems are forecast to bring rainfall across the central and southern Plains, though wheat yield damage in those regions has likely already occurred. The Northern Plains remain mostly dry but face below-normal temperatures and freeze potential. 📈 Corn futures rallied Friday on rising fertilizer prices tied to the Iran war, which traders fear could reduce yields. The July '26 contract gained nearly 6¢ to settle near $4.80/bu, while the Dec '26 contract traded above $5.00/bu for the first time this year. Cold, wet conditions across the central and eastern Corn Belt added to bullish sentiment. Soybeans and wheat also closed higher. 📊 CFTC Commitment of Traders (week ending Apr. 28): Large money managers were net buyers of 83k corn contracts — the net long of 266k is the largest since late March. Funds were net sellers of 11k soybean contracts. SRW wheat saw net buying of 20k contracts, pushing the net long to 12k—the largest since June 2022. Managed money also holds a record net long in spring wheat and is near-record net long soybean oil.🚢 Iranian grain imports have collapsed as vessels idle at sea rather than risk transiting the Strait of Hormuz amid the US blockade. War-risk insurance costs are prohibitive. Iran, heavily dependent on imported feed grains for its meat and dairy sectors, is seeing staple food prices surge — eggs up 118% and bread up 80% since the war began. Rerouting attempts have not offset lost volumes. 🇲🇽 Mexico replaced its agriculture minister. President Sheinbaum named Columba López Gutiérrez to replace Julia Berdegué, who moves to an advisory role as the US, Mexico, and Canada review the USMCA ahead of a July 1 deadline on whether to extend the agreement 16 years or let it expire. Berdegué had also been leading New World screwworm talks with the US — an issue with little improvement. Mexico is the largest buyer of US corn.🌽 USDA flash sale: US exporters sold 148,240 MT (≈6 mil bu) of corn to unknown destinations — 78,240 MT for 2025/26 delivery and 70,000 MT for 2026/27 delivery.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Corn futures slipped Thursday as favorable Corn Belt weather and crude oil weakness weighed on prices. The Dec26 contract settled near $4.94, unable to break through the key $5.00 level. Wheat saw sharp losses, dropping ~16 cents on Plains rainfall forecasts, while soybeans finished mostly unchanged.The USDA drought monitor showed meaningful improvement in the Corn Belt—drought coverage fell from 36% to just 11% since the start of the year. However, conditions are worsening in Nebraska and Kansas, and winter wheat continues to struggle under dry conditions and recent freezes.The House passed the farm bill 224–200, reauthorizing ag and food programs for five years. The E15 year-round sales provision was stripped from the bill after pushback from oil-state Republicans. A standalone E15 vote is now expected separately.Kalshi will not offer 24/7 grain markets after pushback from industry groups and regulators. Grain contracts will align with traditional exchange hours. Meanwhile, the CFTC is reportedly considering more frequent publication of its Commitment of Traders report.Weekly export sales were strong for corn at 1.6mmt — up 21% week-over-week — with Colombia as the top buyer. Soybean sales were soft at 258,100mt. Wheat sales came in near the top of expectations at 226,100mt, up 75% from the prior week.The S&P 500 closed above 7,200 for the first time, gaining 1% to a new all-time high. Strong earnings and AI optimism drove the rally, even as Q1 GDP came in at 2% — below the expected 2.2%.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Farm bill votes are underway—amendments Wednesday night, final vote expected Thursday. The E15 fuel controversy nearly derailed it, but that plan's been dropped. Bipartisan support is building despite House Democrat leadership opposition, as farmers facing rising costs and bankruptcies need relief now.Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith is pushing to cut fertilizer costs with the Lowering Input Costs for American Farmers Act, targeting tariffs on phosphate imports from Morocco — which controls over 70% of global phosphate reserves. The American Farm Bureau and American Soybean Association are on board.Oil surged nearly 7% Wednesday to $106.88/barrel as Strait of Hormuz disruptions look increasingly long-term. Trump says the blockade holds until Iran agrees to a nuclear deal — and Tehran isn't blinking. Markets are starting to price in a real supply shock, not just geopolitical noise.Wheat futures pulled back slightly after hitting a near two-year high, settling at $6.53/bu on the July26 contract. Drought concerns across the Plains remain, and the forecasted rain is expected to miss the driest areas. Corn and soybeans both closed higher.Bunge raised its 2026 profit outlook after a strong Q1 beat—higher soybean oil prices, solid crush margins, and rising biofuel demand driven by new EPA mandates are all tailwinds. Trade tensions and supply chain risk remain the key unknowns.US ethanol production dipped to 1.01M bpd last week, down 3% week-over-week. Stocks fell to 25.88M barrels. Despite the drop, Corn Belt ethanol margins remain solidly positive at 15–40 cents.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌧️ Illinois Historic Rainfall — Severe thunderstorms dropped a record 3.6" in Springfield and 2.1" in Peoria Tuesday, the highest single-storm totals since 2002. Flooding concerns are mounting across the region, with some corn and soybean growers already discussing replant options.🌾 Wheat Surges on Plains Drought — The May26 Chicago and Kansas City wheat contracts jumped 28 and 30 cents Tuesday to close at $6.49 and $6.97/bu, respectively, on intensifying drought stress across the U.S. Plains. Forecasted rainfall is expected to miss the hardest-hit western areas, where yield losses are likely already underway.🌽 Corn Gains, Beans Slip — May26 corn gained roughly 5 cents to close near $4.65/bu — its highest since late March — supported by near-term Corn Belt rainfall, strong export demand, and a 3.7% surge in crude oil to near $100/barrel. Soybeans edged lower on technical selling and expectations of large South American supplies, while the Dec27 corn contract topped $5.00/bu for the first time.🥩 Smithfield Margins Under Pressure — Rising diesel and packaging costs tied to the Middle East conflict are squeezing Smithfield's profitability, sending shares down roughly 8% Tuesday despite a Q1 earnings beat. The company plans to offset input cost headwinds through price increases and efficiency improvements, and also noted higher beef prices amid historically tight cattle supplies.🌱 EU Rejects S. American Soy Shipments — Dutch authorities detected non-approved GMOs in four Argentine and two Brazilian soybean meal shipments, triggering withdrawals and potential disruption to the EU's largest soy suppliers. The situation could shift demand toward the U.S. and Ukraine as Europe enforces its strict GMO import regulations.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Gas prices are climbing again, hitting a national average of $4.17/gallon, with analysts warning of $4.20 within days as oil hovers near $100/barrel amid the US-Iran conflict and near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. Emergency oil reserves worldwide are being drawn down rapidly, raising supply alarm bells.US winter wheat conditions remain historically weak — the top 5 HRW states are averaging just 13.8% good-excellent, with Nebraska's crop sitting at a staggering 65% poor-very poor. Corn and soybean planting are running ahead of the average pace.Wheat futures rallied Monday on crude strength, a weaker dollar, and dry Plains conditions. Chicago May26 wheat settled near $6.22, KC May26 near $6.67, with both HRW and HRS posting fresh highs. Corn and beans also closed higher, with Dec26 corn hitting fresh 1-month highs overnight.The Iran war is triggering a major fertilizer crisis—over half of the Middle East's urea production has been disrupted, with roughly 30% of global urea trade affected by the Strait of Hormuz closure. Farmers worldwide may be forced to cut application rates, threatening yields and global food security.The Trump administration is expected to unveil a fertilizer investment plan this week, targeting both short-term price relief and long-term domestic production reshoring, while the USDA and DOJ investigate potential price gouging.US corn export inspections came in at 65 million bushels for the week ending April 23 — solid but down slightly week-over-week. Soybean shipments were up 37% vs. last year, with China taking ~39% of inspections. Wheat shipments came in near the top of expectations at 13 million bushels.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾📈 Wheat surges on drought: Prices jumped to multi-week highs as worsening dryness grips the Plains, with 70% of winter wheat in drought. Corn edged higher, while soybeans slipped.🌦️➡️🌵 Mixed weather pattern: Rain improved parts of the Corn Belt, but drought worsened elsewhere—especially the High Plains and Kentucky. Nebraska conditions sharply deteriorated, with 56% in extreme drought.🛢️⚠️ Oil spikes on tensions: Crude climbed over 3% near $96 as Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz restricted, while fragile ceasefires keep geopolitical risk elevated.🌱💰 Pulses gain favor: Farmers are shifting to peas and lentils as a rare profit opportunity, driven by strong protein demand and lower input costs.🚢📊 Exports mixed but solid: Corn sales dipped week-over-week but remain strong overall; soybean and wheat sales showed mixed trends, with steady global demand.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Lawmakers are pushing to overturn the EPA's biofuel blending mandates for 2026 and 2027 using the Congressional Review Act. The effort is considered a long shot and is unlikely to gain traction.🫘 Soybean futures fell Wednesday as soybean oil volatility and fading rumors of Chinese buying weighed on the market. Corn edged higher on strong export demand and favorable rainfall forecasts across the Corn Belt.🌾 Wheat futures turned lower after two days of gains as expected rainfall in drought-affected areas pressured prices. Cotton pulled back after hitting a near two-year high, with crude oil prices and widespread drought keeping the longer-term outlook supportive.💊 The USDA is actively working to address surging fertilizer costs, with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins in daily contact with the White House. Russia extended its fertilizer export quotas through year-end amid global supply tightness tied to the Iran war.⛽ US ethanol production dipped 7% week-over-week but remains above year-ago levels, with margins staying healthy across the Corn Belt. Ethanol stocks rose to 26.95 million barrels.📦 USDA reported a third consecutive flash sale of corn this week, with 130,000 metric tons sold to unknown destinations. The weekly total now stands at 425,000 metric tons, or 17 million bushels.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.✅ Corn & soybean futures recap — what's driving the move higher✅ Trump extends Iran ceasefire — and what it means for crude oil & biofuels✅ Senate eyes $15–$20B in additional farmer aid — but is it actually coming?✅ Biofuel demand surging as crude oil climbs 30%+ since the start of the Iran war✅ Kalshi & Polymarket moving into crypto perpetual futures — could this force CME's hand on 24/7 commodity markets?✅ ADM crude corn oil spill on the Mississippi River at Red Wing, MN✅ USDA flash sales — 12 million bushels of corn sold to Colombia and unknown destinations

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 US winter wheat conditions continued to deteriorate last week, with only 30% of the crop rated good-excellent — the lowest reading for this week since 2023 and third lowest in a decade. 📉 The situation is even more dire in top HRW-producing states like Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, where just 14.6% of the crop is rated good-excellent and nearly half sits in poor-very poor condition.🌽 Corn planting surged to 11% complete, outpacing the 9% historical average, while soybeans rocketed to 12% planted — more than double the 5% average. 🌱 Spring wheat planting also matched its historical average at 12%, signaling strong early-season momentum across the board.💰 The Trump administration is eyeing tariff revenue as a tool to boost domestic fertilizer production, with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins outlining plans to expand capacity within 12–18 months. 🏭 In the meantime, USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden is pressing fertilizer companies for concrete, actionable expansion plans rather than open-ended talks.🇧🇷 Brazil's soybean harvest is nearly in the books at 92% complete, right in line with last year's pace, while favorable weather is supporting the developing safrinha corn crop. ☁️ However, CropProphet's Euro model data suggest Brazil's second corn areas could see just 47% of normal rainfall over both the 1–7 and 8–14 day forecast windows.🇨🇳 China's agriculture ministry is projecting a 6.1% drop in soybean imports this year, with declines reaching 26% by 2035 as Beijing pushes hard for greater food self-sufficiency. 🥩 Pork, beef, and dairy imports are also expected to fall year-over-year, while total grain production is forecast to climb 5.3% by 2035.🚢 US corn export inspections came in at 1.7 MMT for the week ending April 16, near the top of pre-report estimates, while soybean shipments hit 748,678 MT — up 34% versus the same week last year. 🌾 Wheat stole the show with inspections of 518,141 MT, a jaw-dropping 90% jump from the prior week, with China accounting for roughly 60% of total weekly inspections across all commodities.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌍 US Fertilizer Diverted Overseas — Traders are snapping up imported urea at the Port of New Orleans and flipping it to global markets as soaring international prices create a massive arbitrage opportunity. CME Gulf Urea peaked at $720/ton last week, and domestic farmers are feeling the squeeze with no relief in sight.⚔️ Middle East Tensions Escalate—The US Navy fired on and boarded an Iranian container ship in the Gulf of Oman over the weekend, throwing the fragile ceasefire into chaos despite Trump's claims of a near-finalized deal. WTI crude surged ~$5/bbl this morning to $89/bbl, though that's still well off last week's $106 peak.🌧️ Planting Disruptions Across the Corn Belt—Heavy weekend rains soaked Missouri, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Indiana—with some pockets seeing over 4" in 72 hours—throwing a wrench in corn and soybean planting progress. Meanwhile, HRW wheat country stayed bone dry and dealt with a brief freeze, adding more stress to an already strained crop outlook.📊 Funds Selling Corn in Size — Large money managers dumped 58k corn contracts in the week ending April 14, bringing total selling since the late-March peak to 127k contracts. They still hold a net long of 153k contracts, with modest selling also seen in soybeans and SRW wheat.🐄 Cattle Markets Rattled by Border Rumors — Cattle futures hit limit-down on speculation that Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins would announce a reopening of the US-Mexico feeder cattle border — but no announcement came, with screwworm confirmed just 200 miles from the line. The April 1 Cattle on Feed report came in neutral-to-friendly, with placements down 7% and heifers still at 37% of inventory—signaling no serious herd rebuilding just yet.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌧️ Heavy rainfall is disrupting planting across the Corn Belt, with some Iowa farmers potentially sidelined for another week. Speculation about acreage shifts to soybeans due to fertilizer costs is not universal, as many producers pre-booked inputs ahead of the Iran conflict.🏜️ USDA's latest drought monitor shows improved conditions in parts of the northern Corn Belt thanks to recent rains, but Kentucky, southern Illinois, and parts of Kansas and Nebraska continue to dry out. A staggering 68% of the winter wheat crop is now under drought — the worst reading since December 2022.🌾 Wheat futures surged Thursday on fears of a weekend freeze hitting Plains winter wheat areas on top of already parched conditions. The Kansas City May contract climbed ~17 cents to close around $6.42/bu, its highest level in over a year.💰 Agricultural groups are pushing the Trump administration for roughly $15 billion in farm aid as part of a Middle East supplemental spending package. The proposal includes $10 billion for specialty crops, while lawmakers are also eyeing the Homegrown Fertilizer Act to boost domestic production.📦 US corn export sales came in strong at 1.4 MMT for the week ending April 9, up 14% from the four-week average with Japan leading purchases. Soybean sales hit a marketing year low at just 248k MT, while wheat sales also came in near the low end of expectations.🕊️ President Trump expressed optimism Thursday about a potential US-Iran deal, citing Iranian concessions on nuclear ambitions and a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran has not publicly confirmed these terms, and many global leaders expect any formal agreement could take up to six months.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Fertilizer prices are climbing, corn futures are rallying, and Kalshi just entered the commodity trading game—here's everything moving ag markets this week.The Trump administration is weighing support packages for farmers dealing with elevated fertilizer costs, while the DOJ investigates potential price collusion in the sector. Could Kalshi's new 24/7 corn, soybean, and wheat prediction markets actually shake up the CME? We dig into what that could mean for retail and institutional traders alike.On the crop side, early planting has been disrupted by heavy Corn Belt rainfall—but USDA data shows both corn and soybeans are still running ahead of the five-year average. May corn settled near $4.51, its highest point in over a week.Plus, ethanol production hits another seasonal high (up nearly 10% year-over-year).NOPA's March crush data sets a near record despite missing estimates, soy oil stocks hit a 13-year March high, and the S&P 500 closes above 7,000 for the first time ever.All that plus E15 legislation updates, Corn Belt weather maps, and ethanol margin charts.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Rising input costs are squeezing US farmers as fertilizer and fuel prices surge following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A recent Farm Bureau survey shows 94% of respondents say their financial situation has worsened or stayed the same compared to last year — with smaller operations facing the steepest challenges.Wheat futures pushed sharply higher Tuesday on deteriorating crop conditions across the Plains. Hot and dry weather has taken a toll, with 54% of Texas winter wheat rated poor to very poor, and Oklahoma close behind at 48%. HRW wheat country is expected to stay dry for at least another 7-10 days.Tensions between the US and China are heating up, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accusing Beijing of hoarding oil amid the ongoing Iran conflict. China has yet to purchase a single bushel of US soybeans for new crop delivery, despite earlier talk of major long-term commitments.On a more bullish note for South American supply, Conab raised its outlook for Brazil's soybean crop to a record 179.15mmt, with exports also revised to a record 115.4mmt.Optimism about peace talks sent crude oil tumbling nearly 8% Tuesday, settling around $91/barrel, with WTI trading near $92.50 early this morning. The Nasdaq jumped 2% and the S&P 500 gained 1.1% on hopes that Iran negotiations could resume within days.The USDA also reported flash sales Tuesday—316,000mt of corn to Mexico and 120,000mt to unknown destinations.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.In today's update: The DOJ is investigating potential price fixing in the US fertilizer industry, with farmers asked to provide confidential input on the practices of Nutrien, Mosaic, CF Industries, Koch, and Yara. Winter wheat conditions hit their lowest rating since 2023 amid widespread drought across key HRW states. Soybean futures tumbled Monday on expectations of a shift in planted acres away from corn. The US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is rattling energy and input cost markets, with crude oil topping $99/barrel. Brazil's soybean harvest is nearly wrapped up at 87% complete. And weekly export inspections showed strong soybean shipments — up 47% year-over-year — while wheat came in at the low end of expectations.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🚨 US BLOCKADES STRAIT OF HORMUZ 🚨The US is blockading the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks in Pakistan — and markets are already feeling it. 🛢️ WTI crude surged nearly $8/bbl overnight, with the May '26 contract trading near $105. Grains caught a big bid too, with some contracts gapping higher at the open. 📈💥 The blockade targets ships entering or departing Iranian ports, countering Tehran's plan to impose transit tolls on vessels. Any country that helps Iran? Hit with a 50% tariff. And Trump isn't ruling out strikes on Iranian infrastructure. This war is far from over.🌱 Trump is also keeping a close eye on fertilizer prices, calling out the "fertilizer monopoly" on Truth Social and vowing to protect US farmers as costs surge amid the conflict.📊 CFTC CoT Recap (week ending Apr. 7):Funds were net sellers across the board—47k corn, 23k soybeans, and 12k SRW wheat—largely tied to last week's ceasefire announcement. We're also launching a NEW Daily Fund Tracker chart starting today! 👀🌽 Friday Futures Recap:Corn May '26 settled at $4.41—down 3¢ on the day, off ~11¢ on the week (4th straight weekly loss)Soybeans hit a 2-week high on a flash meal sale to Italy 🇮🇹 (Italy's biggest single US soybean meal purchase since 2019!)Wheat ended lower on ample global supplies & soft export demand🌧️ Weekend rains mostly missed key HRW wheat areas in western Kansas and Oklahoma. The 7-day forecast doesn't offer much relief for those dry western zones. Crop ratings drop this afternoon — stay tuned.⚡ Flash Sales Friday:125,640mt of corn → unknown destinations100,000mt of soybean cake/meal → Italy

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Corn is drifting lower despite a strong crude oil market, with funds trimming their net long position from recent highs. Ample old crop stocks and sufficient 2026 acreage estimates are keeping the bears in control.🌾 Wheat tumbled to its lowest level since early March after a bearish USDA report showed surging US and world ending stocks. Drought remains a concern in HRW wheat areas, but the market is struggling to find bullish footing.🫘 Soybeans are holding up better, with large money managers defending a hefty net long position near 190k contracts. US balance sheets could get tight with current acreage estimates — any weather hiccup could be a game changer.🇧🇷 Brazil is eyeing a jump in its ethanol blend from 30% to 32% to ease consumer fuel costs amid rising global oil prices. The move would boost sugarcane demand and help mills struggling with oversupply and tight margins.📊 USDA WASDE kept US corn and soybean ending stocks steady while raising wheat stocks to their highest since 2020. World corn stocks were revised higher but remain at an 11-year low, while world soybean stocks were trimmed below expectations.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Markets on edge as the US-Iran ceasefire hangs by a thread 🚨Iran is already alleging violations before talks have formally begun. Peace negotiations are tentatively set for Pakistan this Saturday, but the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Crude cratered 16% to settle near $94 🛢️—and Goldman says don't expect the low $80s until the strait fully reopens.The dollar had its worst day since January, dropping 0.8% as investors fled safe havens 💵📉. Markets are now pricing in ~25% odds of a Fed rate cut by year's end.Wheat got slammed—Chicago May down ~18 cents, KC May off ~12—hit by falling crude and rain forecasts across the Plains 🌾☔. Corn closed lower; beans bucked the trend and finished higher. Watch the western HRW areas — they may miss the forecasted rains.Super El Niño on the horizon ☀️🌧️ — models show it developing July/August, peaking in November, and lasting into 2027. Generally favorable for the Corn Belt, but watch for planting delays and disease pressure.USDA WASDE drops at 11am CST today 📊 — expectations are quiet, corn/soy stocks largely unchanged, wheat slightly lower. Post-report breakdown video coming shortly after!Ethanol production hit a seasonal high at 1.12M bpd, up 5% YoY 🌽⚡. Margins remain solid across the Corn Belt at 15–40 cents positive.Lots moving today—stay locked in. 👇

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🚨 BREAKING: US-Iran Ceasefire SHOCKS Markets | Oil Crashes $22, Grains Tumble & What It Means for FarmersJust hours before planned US strikes on Iranian infrastructure, a last-minute two-week ceasefire deal brokered by Pakistan sent shockwaves through global commodity markets. Oil plunged nearly 20% overnight—but is the relief rally built to last? 💥We break down everything you need to know:🛢️ Oil & Energy — WTI crude cratered from $113 to $91/bbl overnight. The Strait of Hormuz is reopening, but Iran's proposed $2M-per-vessel transit fees add major uncertainty. Will prices stay elevated?🌽 Grain Markets — Corn and wheat are under heavy pressure while soybeans are staging a recovery. With funds holding massive net long positions of 210K contracts in corn and 190K in soybeans, will traders defend or liquidate?📈 Stocks Surge — S&P 500 up 2.5%, Nasdaq up nearly 3% on the ceasefire news.💸 Inflation Watch — Consumer inflation expectations jumped to 3.4%—the biggest monthly spike in a year. Friday's CPI report will be a major market mover.🌾 Farmer Sentiment — The Purdue/CME Ag Barometer climbed 11 points in March. Cautious optimism is returning to farm country.🇷🇺 Russia Wheat — Argus raises its crop forecast to 88.7 MMT. More competition ahead for US wheat exports.🇨🇳 China Soy Shift—China is rapidly cutting US soybean dependence, with fermented feed alternatives now at 8% of industrial usage and climbing. A potential 6.3% drop in imports could be coming.📊 Stay ahead of the markets — like, subscribe, and hit the bell so you never miss a daily market update! 🔔

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 Crop Markets Update | Wheat Ratings Sink, Cotton Surges & Iran Tensions Rattle MarketsWinter wheat is struggling — rated just 35% good-to-excellent, the lowest since 2023 and well below the 5-year average. 🌧️ Rainfall is on the way for parts of the Plains, but the west remains dry. USDA projects US wheat acreage to hit its lowest level since 1919. 📉🌿 Brazil's soy harvest is 82% done, but dryness is threatening the second corn crop. Rain in the forecast this week could help.🇺🇸 Cotton futures surged to their highest since December as drought grips 88% of US cotton areas—even as the USDA projects a jump in intended plantings.⚠️ Geopolitical risk is front and center — Trump's Iran ultimatum deadline hits tonight at 8pm EST. Markets are watching closely.📦 On the export front, corn shipments came in strong at 79M bushels — up 24% year-over-year. Soybeans beat expectations too.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Oil prices exploded Thursday with WTI crude jumping 11% to $111.54/barrel—the biggest single-day gain in 6 YEARS! 😱 Gas prices are already feeling the heat at $4.11/gallon nationally, and the Iran situation is FAR from over. Trump has given Iran until Tuesday to open the Strait of Hormuz... the clock is ticking. ⏳In today's update we cover:🛢️ Oil's massive surge & what it means for corn prices🌽 Funds dump 22k corn contracts—but still sitting on HISTORIC net longs🫘 Soybean funds add 13k contracts with China buying🌾 Wheat funds go net LONG for the first time since June 2022!🌧️ Rain returning to HRW wheat country—bearish relief incoming?🌡️ Drought update—High Plains baking while the Corn Belt gets relief📦 Export sales: Corn strong, beans soft, wheat hits a marketing year LOW🥩 JBS strike OVER — 3,800 workers return as cattle market watches closely💥 Russia-Ukraine tensions flare again with a ship sunk in the Sea of AzovCPI data drops Friday with inflation expected at 3.4% — don't miss it! 📊👇 Drop your questions in the comments & don't forget to LIKE and SUBSCRIBE for daily market updates!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🚨 MARKETS IN CHAOS: Trump's Iran War Warning Sends Oil Soaring & Stocks PlungingPresident Trump dropped a bombshell in a primetime address—warning of intensified strikes on Iran over the next 2-3 weeks. Markets responded instantly: WTI crude surges past $107/barrel (+$7) while stocks sell off hard. We break down exactly what this means for commodities and your portfolio.📉 GRAIN MARKETS GET WHIPSAWEDWheat futures took a beating Wednesday—Chicago May26 down ~19¢ to $5.98/bu, KC May26 off ~22¢ to $6.14/bu—as Trump hinted the Middle East conflict could be nearing its end. Meanwhile, western Plains dryness continues to threaten crops even as rain arrives in the Southeast. Corn and soybeans also slid on the war-end headlines.🌽 CHINA MAKES A HISTORIC CORN MOVEFor the first time in over 15 years, COFCO booked Argentine corn — a major signal of shifting global trade flows. China has booked ZERO US corn for the current marketing year. What does this mean for US ag exports going forward?🇧🇷 BRAZIL BREAKS RECORDSStoneX raises its Brazil soybean forecast to a record 179.7 MMT, while the USDA sits at 180 MMT. Brazil's corn outlook gets a slight trim to 135.7 MMT. We've got all the charts you need.⛽ ETHANOL UPDATEWeekly US ethanol production dipped 3.7% week-over-week to 1.08M bbl/day, but margins across the Corn Belt remain strong at +15¢ to +40¢ — a bright spot in an otherwise turbulent week.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 US farmers are slashing corn plantings by 3.5% as the Iran war chokes off fertilizer supplies — but the USDA's own data may be nearly worthless with a record-low survey response rate of just 37.6%! Soybean acres are actually rising 4.3%, and grain stocks are up big—so the full picture is more complicated than the headlines suggest.🌾 US wheat acreage is crashing to its lowest level since 1919, with spring wheat hitting a shocking 56-year low! Dry weather hammering Kansas HRW wheat regions and tightening supply forecasts are sending futures flying—watch this space closely.🛢️ Oil had a wild March, surging a massive 51%—its biggest monthly gain since 2020—but pulled back 1.5% Tuesday as Trump hinted at a US withdrawal from Iran within weeks! Even if peace comes fast, experts warn it could take months for oil shipments to normalize due to heavy infrastructure damage.🤝 The high-stakes Trump-Xi summit is still happening, now locked in for May 14–15 in Beijing despite the Iran conflict throwing a wrench in global diplomacy! China has been buying US soybeans at a modest pace this year but has yet to commit to the massive new-crop purchases that were rumored.🚢 The world is scrambling to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to fertilizer shipments in a humanitarian deal modeled after the famous Black Sea grain corridor! With fertilizer flows blocked, global food prices are under serious pressure — and the stakes for food security worldwide couldn't be higher.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Farmers Ditch Corn for Soybeans — Here's Why It MattersThe Iran war is reshaping American agriculture. With urea prices up 40% and fuel costs surging, US farmers are pivoting—corn acreage is set to fall 4.5% while soybeans climb 5.2%. Spring wheat? On track for its lowest plantings since 1970. 📉Meanwhile, soybean oil is surging 🛢️, crude oil hit $102/barrel for the first time since 2022, and the Strait of Hormuz crisis is keeping energy markets on edge.All eyes are on today's USDA Prospective Plantings & Quarterly Grain Stocks report at 11am CST—the stocks numbers could be the real market mover. 👀📊#Farming #Commodities #CornMarket #Soybeans #CrudeOil #USDA #AgMarkets #GrainMarkets

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Welcome back! Let’s break down the biggest ag market movers right now 🌽📉🌱 Biofuel Mandates JumpEPA sets record 25.82B gallons70% of waived volumes reassignedForeign feedstocks penalized after 2028Supportive long-term, not bullish today🏛️ Trump’s Farmer PushPushing additional aid 💰New SBA loan guaranteesTargeting DEF rollback + lower equipment costsTrade talk strong… but soybean exports lag📊 Funds Get ActiveCorn: +49k contracts (big long build)Beans: slight sellingWheat: shorts trimmed significantly🌧️ Weather WatchHeavy Corn Belt rains incomingCould slow early planting progressHRW wheat may miss key moisture🌽➡️🌱 Acreage Shift BrewingCorn acres seen down ~4–5%Soybeans up ~5%Fertilizer costs exploding (urea +40%)War impact not fully in USDA data yet🚢 Export CheckFlash sale: 105k mt soybeansTotal sales still down ~18% YoY👉 Bottom line: supportive policy + tighter inputs, but market already priced it in.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com🌎 Markets & MacroGrains, oil, and global headlines all moving fast—stay sharp.🌽 Grain UpdateCorn, soybeans, and wheat action you need to know.⛽ Energy & BiofuelsEthanol, crude oil, and policy shifts impacting demand.📈 What It MeansKey takeaways to help you stay ahead of the market.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.President Trump is headed to China 🇨🇳 for a high-stakes meeting with Xi, and markets are already reacting. Soybeans surged on the news, while corn and wheat followed higher amid fertilizer and acreage concerns.The EPA also issued another E15 summer waiver ⛽🌽, keeping ethanol demand supported—for now. But with plants already running near capacity, how much more corn can actually be used?Meanwhile, fertilizer prices are rising fast 💥, USDA funding is being cut 💰, and ethanol production/margins are improving 📈.👉 Plenty to unpack across energy, policy, and grain markets.Subscribe for daily updates 👍 and drop your thoughts in the comments!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 E15 Decision Coming?Another summer waiver may drop today, allowing E15 sales and supporting ethanol demand—not permanent, but still bullish short-term.🛢️ Oil Still WildCrude jumped, then pulled back as war headlines flip hourly. No real clarity yet—volatility remains high ⚡🌾 Fertilizer Concerns GrowingPrices are surging, and many farmers haven’t locked supply. Washington is scrambling for solutions ahead of Friday’s ag event.🌍 Global Supply TighteningRussia just restricted exports, and Australia is cutting wheat acres—potential supply issues ahead.👉 Energy + fertilizer + policy = big market risk (and opportunity)👍 Like, subscribe, and drop a comment with what you’re seeing locally!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Welcome back! Today we’re breaking down a wild mix of geopolitics 🌍, energy markets 🛢️, biofuels policy 🌽, and key ag fundamentals 🌾👇🛢️ Oil Market WhiplashOil prices dropped sharply Monday as optimism grew that the Iran conflict could cool off. WTI crude plunged more than 10%, hitting its lowest level in nearly two weeks after President Trump signaled progress in talks and ordered a temporary pause on strikes. That said, the situation remains volatile—Iran denies direct talks, and attacks in the region continue. Bottom line: headlines are still driving massive swings in energy and commodity markets.🌽 Biofuels Policy IncomingThe Trump administration is expected to roll out new biofuel blending quotas by month-end, likely tied to Friday’s White House agriculture event. EPA head Lee Zeldin confirmed updated Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) requirements are coming soon, with more rulemaking to follow. Key issues include diesel volumes, RIN values, and blending mandates—plus ongoing debate over year-round E15. This is a big one for corn demand and ethanol margins.🌾 Wheat Weather WatchHRW wheat areas across the Plains remain dry, with little relief expected over the next 10 days. Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, and the southern Plains are all under pressure, though longer-range models hint at rain returning. Current Kansas ratings sit at 46% good/excellent and 19% poor/very poor. Weather risk is building—but forecasts beyond a week are always shaky.🚢 Strong Export DemandUS export activity was solid last week:Corn shipments hit 1.7 mmt (strong vs. last year)Soybeans came in at 1.1 mmt, with China taking 60%Wheat exceeded expectations at 458k mtDemand continues to hold up well, especially on the corn and soybean side.🐖 China Demand ConcernsChina’s hog sector is under serious pressure. Pork prices have collapsed to multi-year lows, and producer margins are shrinking fast. Weak consumer demand and rising feed costs are forcing Beijing to step in—cutting herd sizes and buying pork for reserves. This has major implications for global feed demand, especially soymeal.🇧🇷 Brazil Harvest UpdateBrazil’s soybean harvest is lagging, now at 68% complete vs. 80% last year. Dry weather helped recently, but rains are coming back into the forecast. Meanwhile, second crop corn planting is nearly finished at 97%. Timing and logistics here remain critical for global supply flows.⚡ Flash SalesUSDA confirmed fresh demand:102,000 mt of corn sold to Mexico (new crop)161,120 mt of soybeans sold to Mexico (new crop)Steady demand continues to show up on the daily wire.👍 If you’re in agriculture, these moving pieces matter—energy, policy, weather, and global demand are all tightly connected right now.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.⚠️ Middle East tensions are escalating fast… and markets are watching closely.🌍 GeopoliticsTrump issues a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran over the Strait of Hormuz—threatening strikes on power infrastructure if it’s not reopened. Iran pushes back, raising fears of broader conflict and long-term shipping disruptions.🛢️ Energy vs. GrainsCrude oil holding firm despite the headlines, while grain markets slipped Friday. Corn, soybeans, and wheat all pressured by profit-taking, a stronger dollar, and improving US weather outlooks.📊 Fund PositioningFunds keep piling into corn (largest net long since Feb ‘25), trimming soybeans, and reducing wheat shorts. Positioning remains a key driver heading into spring.🌱 Global Ag DevelopmentsChina eases restrictions on Brazilian soybeans after recent trade tensions—potentially smoothing export flows during peak shipment season.⛽ Diesel & InflationDiesel prices surge above $5—fueling inflation concerns across agriculture, trucking, and the broader economy.🐄 Cattle MarketCattle on Feed report leans bearish with larger-than-expected placements, though context matters vs. last year’s low numbers.👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments—are grain markets too cheap here?

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌍 War & Bullish SetupBank of America says ag markets may be underpricing the Iran war. Prolonged conflict could tighten fertilizer supplies and spark a new grain bull cycle 🌽📈⛽ Energy Shock = Fertilizer RiskDamage to Qatar LNG + soaring nat gas prices = major nitrogen concerns. Urea futures hit multi-year highs… big implications for crop costs ⚠️🌽 Grains HigherCorn, beans, and wheat all pushed higher Thursday on energy + fertilizer fears. New calendar-year highs in corn contracts 🚜💰 Funds Still LongFunds were net buyers again—holding large long positions in both corn and soybeans 👀🛢️ Oil SurgeCrude spiked sharply this week amid Middle East attacks. Higher energy = higher input costs + biofuel support 🔥🏛️ Fertilizer BillNew bipartisan “Fertilizer Transparency Act” aims to improve pricing visibility and boost domestic production 🇺🇸🌧️ Weather UpdateBetter moisture in the Corn Belt, but worsening drought in the Plains. Mixed outlook heading into planting season 🌦️👉 If you’re watching inputs, energy, and geopolitics… this could get interesting fast.👍 Like & subscribe for more daily grain market updates💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments—bull market coming?

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 Wheat Leads the RallyWheat futures surged on weather concerns across the Plains—winter damage risk + hot/dry forecasts gave bulls a reason to step in.🌽 Corn & Beans Follow + Funds ActiveCorn and soybeans moved higher alongside crude oil 📈Funds were aggressive buyers again—corn and beans both sitting with big net long positions.📊 Acreage Debate Heating UpPrivate estimates are creeping higher on corn acres, but fertilizer costs could throw a wrench into everything.March 31 numbers? Probably noisy. June will matter more.🚢 Jones Act WaivedThe administration temporarily lifted shipping restrictions to ease fertilizer and fuel logistics—but it may be too late to impact spring costs.🌍 China Trip DelayedTrump’s China visit pushed back amid geopolitical tensions—trade talks (and ag demand expectations) remain in limbo.⛽ Ethanol SlipsProduction dipped, stocks rose, and margins are hovering around breakeven across the Corn Belt.💵 Fed Holds Rates SteadyNo rate change. Markets slid after the announcement as uncertainty tied to global conflict remains high.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 White House Biofuels Event & RVO DecisionPresident Trump is hosting a major ag event next week with farmers and biofuel producers 🇺🇸Comes just ahead of the 2026–2027 blending mandate decisionPotential increase in mandates = stronger demand for ethanol & biodiesel⚠️ Refiners pushing back, warning of higher fuel pricesTiming matters with Middle East conflict already pressuring energy markets💸 Rising Farm Costs Becoming PoliticalWar-driven input inflation is hitting farmers hard 🚜Fertilizer + fuel costs surging right before plantingMargins already tight due to weak grain pricesCould impact rural sentiment ahead of midterms 🗳️Higher farm costs = potential food inflation pressure 🍔🌾 Wheat Market UpdateWheat futures slipped Tuesday 📉Chicago wheat ~ $5.90, KC wheat ~ $6.07Cold temps + ongoing dryness in the PlainsForecast: hot + dry → then cooldownRussia still undercutting U.S. on price 🌍🌍 Trump Delays China TripTrade tensions stay in focus 🇺🇸🇨🇳Visit pushed back 5–6 weeksTrump ties trip to China helping reopen HormuzTreasury says delay is logistical⏳ Delays progress on ag trade talks (soybeans!)Meanwhile:Strait of Hormuz effectively closed 🚢Iranian attacks continue across the regionEnergy markets remain on edge🇧🇷 Brazil Soybean Export ProblemsBrazil facing fresh export disruptions 🚫China tightening inspection standardsIssues: insects, damage, treated beansCargill paused some shipmentsLocal soybean bids have collapsed in some areasOfficials heading to China to try and fix it 🤝👉 This could shift demand back toward the U.S. if it drags on

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 Grain markets got slammed Monday, with soybeans limit down after President Trump suggested he may delay his meeting with Xi Jinping. Corn and wheat also moved sharply lower, while expanded soybean limits point to more volatility ahead.🚛 Brazil’s soybean freight costs are rising fast as higher oil prices push diesel prices higher during peak export season. That’s creating logistical stress, hurting bids, and raising the risk that buyers shift demand to the US or Argentina.🛢️ Crude oil pulled back Monday but bounced overnight as Middle East attacks continued and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz remained high. At the same time, China is tightening fertilizer exports, adding even more fuel to an already bullish global fertilizer story.🫘 NOPA reported a record February soybean crush, while soybean oil stocks jumped to the highest level in years. Export inspections were solid overall, with soybean shipments beating expectations and China taking the majority of the load.🥩 In the cattle market, a strike at JBS in Greeley adds another wrinkle to an already tight beef supply situation. Thanks for watching—subscribe, like this video, and drop your thoughts in the comments below.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 Grain Markets & Policy UpdatePresident Trump told the Financial Times he “may delay” a summit with Xi Jinping amid the Strait of Hormuz closure. Trade talks between U.S. and Chinese officials continued this weekend, and China reiterated its commitment to 25 mmt of U.S. soybean purchases annually for the next three years, though soybeans fell early Monday after comments about “non-soybean row crops.”📊 Fund Positioning (CFTC)Speculative money continues to pile into ag markets. Funds bought 147k corn contracts, pushing the net long to the largest since March 2025. Funds also added to soybeans and SRW wheat, and private estimates suggest funds may have been record net long soybeans by Friday’s close.🌾 Wheat Weather ConcernsChicago wheat rallied Friday on fund buying, higher crude oil, and drought concerns across the Plains. Forecasts show little rainfall in HRW regions over the next two weeks while cold temperatures threaten SRW areas this week.🇧🇷 Brazil Soybean HarvestBrazil’s harvest is about 57% complete, behind last year but near the five-year average. Conab trimmed its crop estimate slightly to 177.85 mmt, still a record, citing excessive rain and uneven weather.🧪 Fertilizer Market DevelopmentsThe U.S. approved Venezuelan fertilizer sales to help offset disruptions tied to the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz closure. Despite the move, analysts say limited capacity means little short-term relief, with NOLA urea already up sharply.🏛️ Policy & Farmer ReliefAg Secretary Brooke Rollins says the administration is exploring multiple options to reduce fertilizer costs and acknowledged that additional farmer aid remains on the table if conditions worsen.👍 If you enjoy these daily market updates, subscribe to the channel and jump in the comments with your thoughts. Your support keeps the independent content coming.

🧪 Fertilizer Stocks SurgeShares of CF Industries hit a record high Thursday, jumping as much as 14% intraday—its biggest one-day gain since 2020. CF controls roughly 40% of the North American nitrogen fertilizer market. Profit margins are likely expanding as nitrogen prices surge while the company benefits from cheap North American natural gas. Many global competitors are facing much higher gas costs or supply disruptions. Speculative buying may also be contributing. Shares of Nutrien, which controls about 22% of the North American nitrogen market, rose nearly 8%.It’s worth noting that most ammonia and UAN used in the US is produced domestically, but the US relies heavily on imported urea—roughly 65% of supply comes from imports.🛢️ CME CEO Warns on Government Oil InterventionCME Group CEO Terry Duffy warned that government intervention in crude oil futures would be a “biblical disaster,” saying markets do not react well when governments attempt to influence pricing. The comments follow reports that the US Treasury may be considering actions—including possible futures market activity—to push oil prices lower. Some traders have pointed to a series of large unexplained trades this week and questioned whether government involvement could be possible.WTI crude plunged from $119/bbl Monday to $77/bbl Tuesday before rebounding sharply.⛽ Fuel Prices SpikeRetail gasoline prices have surged to the highest level since mid-2023. GasBuddy estimates the national average near $3.65/gal, up more than 70 cents from last month. California leads the nation at roughly $5.39/gal, while Washington, Oregon, Nevada, and Arizona all average above $4.00.AAA estimates the national diesel average near $4.89/gal, up $1.22 from last month. Gasoline accounts for roughly 4% of the CPI basket, meaning a 25% increase in gasoline prices could theoretically add about 1% to inflation.🚢 Oil Jumps as Strait of Hormuz Disruption ContinuesCrude oil rallied sharply again Thursday. May WTI gained $8.48 to close at $95.70 while Brent settled above $100. Two tankers traveling through Iraqi waters were reportedly struck by Iranian explosives, and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said naval escorts through the strait are possible by the end of the month.🌱 Soybeans Rally to Best Trade Since 2024Soybean futures posted their strongest trade since May 2024. The expiring March contract traded as high as $12.23 while the most active May contract reached $12.38. The rally has been fueled by optimism surrounding renewable fuel policy, improving US-China trade sentiment, and sharply higher crude oil prices.Brazilian trade groups are also expressing concern about exports to China. Brazil recently implemented stricter pest and weed inspections after a request from Chinese authorities. As a result, Cargill temporarily halted soybean purchases and shipments to China. Industry groups are now working with officials to resolve the issue and restore trade flows.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Brazil Soybean Export DisruptionCargill has paused Brazilian soybean exports to China after Brazil implemented stricter pest and weed inspections at China’s request. Some shipments have failed the new standards, forcing exporters to halt purchases from farmers and causing local soybean bids to disappear in parts of Brazil.🛢️ Iran War Drives Fertilizer ConcernsBloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast highlighted how the Iran conflict and disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz are pushing fertilizer prices higher—just ahead of spring planting. Rising input costs could eventually translate into higher global food prices.📈 Grain Futures RallySoybeans surged again Wednesday with May beans closing near $12.14. Corn and wheat also gained as crude oil rebounded and geopolitical tensions escalated, while speculation grows that higher fertilizer and fuel costs could influence US acreage decisions.🤝 US-China Trade Talks AheadUS and Chinese trade officials will meet in Paris this weekend ahead of President Trump’s planned China visit later this month. Markets are watching closely as analysts suggest new soybean purchases could follow.🏭 Ethanol Production JumpsUS ethanol output climbed to an eight-week high, while inventories dropped. Margins across the Corn Belt remain solidly positive, providing support to corn demand.🛢️ Record Strategic Oil ReleaseThe International Energy Agency announced a record 400 million-barrel emergency oil release, but crude still rallied above $88 as markets worry about prolonged Middle East disruptions.📊 Inflation Holds SteadyUS CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year in February, matching expectations. However, the report doesn’t yet reflect the recent surge in energy prices, which could add inflation pressure in the months ahead.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 Ag Markets Lag the Commodity BoomAgricultural markets have badly underperformed the broader commodity complex. The Bloomberg Commodity Index has surged past its 2022 peak and is up more than 19% so far in 2026, while the Bloomberg Ag Subindex (grains, softs, and livestock) has gained less than 5%. Recent strength in commodities has been driven first by gold and silver and more recently by energy markets. 🛢️ Oil Prices Swing on Iran War HeadlinesCrude oil plunged Tuesday, with WTI falling nearly 12% to $83.45, its biggest single-day drop since 2022. Confusion over tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, talk of easing sanctions on Russian oil, and speculation that the war with Iran could end soon pressured the market. The IEA also proposed what would be the largest oil reserve release in history, adding more downside pressure.🧪 Fertilizer Supply at RiskThe Middle East conflict is threatening fertilizer supplies ahead of spring planting. The Persian Gulf region accounts for nearly half of global urea exports and about 30% of ammonia exports, and disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz could tighten supply. Higher fertilizer prices may encourage farmers to shift acres away from corn toward soybeans, while rising fuel costs could further increase production expenses. ⛽ Oil Traders Secure CreditMajor commodity trading houses are securing billions in additional credit lines from banks as energy market volatility increases. Higher oil prices raise the value of cargo shipments and can trigger large futures margin calls, increasing liquidity needs across the trading sector.🌴 Biofuel Supply Risks in Southeast AsiaShipping disruptions are pushing methanol prices higher in Southeast Asia, threatening biodiesel production tied to palm oil. Indonesia relies heavily on methanol imports from the Middle East, and prolonged supply issues could disrupt its blending mandates. Meanwhile, Chicago Platts ethanol futures have rallied to about $1.81/gal, with US ethanol margins positive by roughly 10–30 cents across the Corn Belt.📊 USDA Report Mostly a Non-EventTuesday’s USDA report contained few surprises. US ending stocks were left unchanged. Global corn stocks increased on larger crops in Brazil, Ukraine, and India, while global wheat and soybean stocks were trimmed slightly. Brazil’s corn crop estimate increased, while Argentina’s corn and soybean crops were reduced.📉 Bond Traders Turn BearishInvestors have begun betting against US Treasuries as higher oil prices raise inflation concerns. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed about 20 basis points since late February, and markets are watching today’s CPI report closely for signals on future Fed policy.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇺🇸🪖 War signals easing: Donald Trump suggested the conflict with Iran could be short-lived and nearing an end. He is also considering taking control of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil markets cooled, with crude dropping below $90 after earlier surging above $119. 🌍⛽🛢️🤝 Global response: Group of Seven energy ministers will meet to discuss releasing strategic oil reserves, and the U.S. may ease oil sanctions on Russia to help stabilize energy prices.🌽📉 Grain markets pull back: Profit-taking pushed futures lower.Corn fell ~7¢ to $4.54/bu (after hitting the highest level since May 2025 earlier in the session).Soybeans dropped ~5¢ to $11.96/bu.Wheat declined ~14¢ to about $6.03/bu. The sell-off came as crude oil retreated from overnight highs.📊📅 USDA report day: United States Department of Agriculture will release the Crop Production and WASDE report (11am CST). Expectations:Slight increase in U.S. corn ending stocks 🌽Slight decline in soybean & wheat stocks 🌱🌾Global stocks mostly unchanged Traders are more focused on the upcoming Prospective Plantings report later this month.🚢🌽 Export shipments:Corn: 1.5 mmt, down week-to-week but still strong.Soybeans: 879k mt, near expectations; China bought ~47% 🇨🇳Wheat: 496k mt, well above expectations.🇧🇷🌱 Brazil harvest update: Soybean harvest is 51% complete, the slowest pace in five years, though still near the average. Dry weather in March has helped progress. Second-crop corn planting is 82% complete.🥩⚠️ Beef plant strike: Workers at a major JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado (capacity 6,000 cattle/day) plan to strike. Impact may be limited because the industry currently has more slaughter capacity than available cattle, allowing feedlots to shift animals to other plants.👍 If you enjoy these quick updates, make sure to subscribe and hit the notification bell so you never miss a video.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌍 Middle East tensions escalated over the weekend as Iran named the son of Ali Khamenei as its new supreme leader. Israel struck oil facilities near Tehran, while Iran threatened attacks on regional energy infrastructure. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut due to missile and drone risks, disrupting energy shipments.🛢️ Oil markets turned extremely volatile. West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures briefly surged over 25% to above $110 before easing to around $101, still sharply higher. Production cuts from Kuwait and Iraq — with more expected — are adding to supply concerns.🌽 Grain markets rallied alongside energy. Soybeans climbed to about $12.20, corn rose near $4.69, and wheat advanced toward $6.26 as higher oil prices lifted agricultural commodities.🇨🇳 China signaled stability in U.S. relations. Despite the Iran conflict, Beijing indicated it wants steady ties with Washington ahead of a planned meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, with trade officials set to meet in Paris next week.📊 Funds turned bullish on grains. According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, money managers bought 65k corn contracts and 16k soybean contracts last week, while trimming 7k SRW wheat contracts.👍 If you enjoy these quick updates, make sure to subscribe and hit the notification bell so you never miss a video.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Grains Higher as Oil SurgesRising crude oil prices supported grain futures Thursday. May corn gained nearly 10¢ to ~$4.54, soybeans climbed nearly 10¢ to ~$11.79, and Chicago wheat rallied about 16¢ to ~$5.84. WTI crude jumped more than 8%, helping lift ag markets. Fresh highs were posted overnight in several corn, soybean, and wheat contracts. 📈🛢️ White House Weighs Oil Price MeasuresThe Trump administration is considering steps to cool the recent oil rally, including tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, waiving fuel blending requirements, and even potentially trading oil futures. WTI has surged about 20% since Sunday and moved above $80/bbl for the first time since July 2024. ⛽🌱 Brazil Soybean Crop RaisedAgroconsult boosted its Brazil soybean crop estimate to a record 183.1 mmt, up 850k from the prior outlook. For comparison: USDA 180 mmt and Conab 178 mmt. 🇧🇷🚢 Strong Corn Export SalesUS corn export sales impressed at 2 mmt (80 mb) last week, well above expectations. Soybeans and wheat were near the low end of estimates, with China and Mexico the top buyers respectively. 🌎🌧️ Drought Expands in the Corn BeltAbout 38% of the Corn Belt is now experiencing drought conditions, with deterioration across the High Plains.Corn 51% | Soybeans 53% | Winter Wheat 56% | Spring Wheat 19% | Cattle 57% 🌾🥩 Senate Bill Targets Meatpacker StructureSenate Democrats introduced legislation that would limit major meatpackers to processing only one type of meat and impose concentration limits in the beef industry. Critics say it could weaken the supply chain and raise costs for consumers.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌧️ Rain Hits the Corn BeltRain has returned to the drought-stricken Corn Belt. Over the last 72 hours, a wide band dropped 1–3 inches across parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. Radar remains active this morning, with a strong system stretching from southeast Missouri into southern/eastern Illinois and across Indiana and Ohio.📉 Grain Futures SlipGrain markets moved lower Wednesday as attention shifted away from the Middle East conflict. May corn lost nearly 3 cents to around $4.44, May soybeans fell about 1 cent to near $11.70, and Chicago May wheat dropped roughly 6 cents to about $5.68. Ample global supplies, concerns over Chinese soybean demand, and rain forecasts across the winter wheat belt weighed on prices.⚖️ DOJ Investigates Fertilizer CompaniesThe US Department of Justice is investigating several major fertilizer producers for potential price collusion. Companies under scrutiny include Nutrien, Mosaic, CF Industries, Koch, and Yara. The probe is in its early stages but has bipartisan support amid concerns over high farm input costs and food prices.🚢 Strait of Hormuz Traffic CollapsesShipping through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly halted. Vessel traffic dropped from more than 100 ships late last week to just a handful early this week. The strait is a critical chokepoint for oil, natural gas, and fertilizer feedstocks, and disruptions have pushed commodity prices higher.✈️ Fuel Buyers Rush to HedgeAirlines and shipping firms are rushing to hedge fuel costs as crude prices surge. Many are using call options to protect against further spikes, with jet fuel prices in Europe hitting their highest level since 2022.🌽 Ethanol Production UpdateUS ethanol production slipped to 1.1 million barrels per day last week, down slightly from the prior week but still above last year. Stocks increased to 26.34 million barrels. Ethanol margins across the Corn Belt remain positive, ranging from roughly 5 to 35 cents.📦 Flash Corn SaleUSDA reported a flash sale of 125,000 metric tons (about 5 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year.👍 If you enjoy these quick updates, make sure to subscribe and hit the notification bell so you never miss a video.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌍 Iran Conflict & Fertilizer MarketsThe war in Iran has led to a partial pause in fertilizer bidding as production curtailments and Gulf shipping disruptions slow movement. The Middle East accounts for about 25% of global urea exports, and US inventories were already tight. If nitrogen equals 10–20% of a corn grower’s costs, a 40% price spike could raise total production costs by 4–8%, which has sparked talk of aggressive acreage switching away from corn.🚢 US Insurance Backstop for Gulf ShippingThe US will help insure ships traveling through the Gulf as war-risk premiums surge. President Trump ordered the US International Development Finance Corporation to assist with insurance costs and said the US Navy may escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if needed. Officials are also prepared to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve if supply disruptions continue.💵 US Dollar SurgesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has jumped sharply since the conflict began, marking its strongest two-day rally in nearly a year. Rising oil prices are fueling inflation concerns and could delay Fed rate cuts. Unlike past oil shocks, the US is now a major energy exporter, which has helped support the dollar.🥩 Brazilian Beef Trade at RiskA prolonged conflict could disrupt Brazilian beef exports through Middle Eastern shipping routes. About 10% of Brazil’s beef exports go directly to the Middle East, while 30–40% pass through the region en route to Asia and China. If flows are disrupted, the US could become an alternative market.📊 Farmer Sentiment Improves SlightlyThe Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer rose to 116 in February, up slightly from January as current conditions improved. However, expectations for the future weakened, and 44% of farmers said their operations are worse off than a year ago.🌽 USDA Flash Corn SaleUSDA reported a flash sale of 196,000 mt (about 8 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year.