Investment Wars

Prediction Markets — Forecasting, AI, and the Future of InformationIn this episode of Investment Wars, Joe Halpern sits down with Zvi Mowshowitz, a deep thinker with hands-on experience in professional trading, prediction market design, and AI, for a wide-ranging conversation on what prediction markets are, what they're actually good for, and where they're headed.Prediction markets get a lot of hype. But are they genuinely useful economic tools or just sophisticated entertainment?This episode cuts through the noise, exploring how well-designed questions create real informational value, where prediction markets outperform traditional hedges, and why AI may be the next great participant, not the replacement, for these markets.Key Topics CoveredWhat Makes a Good Prediction Market Question: Why specificity, measurability, and verifiability are everything, and why questions like "Is Jesus coming back?" generate nothing but risk-free arbitrage, while questions like "How many ships will pass through the Strait of Hormuz by [date]?" can be genuinely valuable.Real-World Hedging Use Cases: How a shipping company like Maersk could use a well-structured prediction market as a direct, targeted hedge, perhaps more efficient than buying oil futures, which measure far too many variables at once.The Insider Trading Debate: Why insider trading, so clearly harmful in equity markets, is far more nuanced in prediction markets and why thinkers like Robin Hanson argue it should be permitted, since insiders reveal information the market needs.Super Forecasters vs. AI vs. Prediction Markets: Zvi defines super forecasting, explains where super forecasters excel (most near-term political and geopolitical questions) and where they reliably fail (long-range predictions, fat-tail events, and AI capabilities). He then explains how well-prompted AI is now outperforming all but the very top human forecasters and what that means for prediction markets going forward.The Centaur Model of Decision-Making: Drawing on the arc of chess, from human dominance, to AI dominance, to a brief window of human-AI centaurs outperforming both, Zvi explains why we're in the centaur phase of forecasting right now. The winning approach: challenge the AI, push back on its logic, and let the best reasoning win.World Models and Decision Systems: Why building a causal, gear-level model of how the world works, rather than relying on vibes or headlines, is the foundation of better investing and better decisions. Not just for professionals. For everyone.The Real Costs of Participating in Prediction Markets: Beyond bid-ask spreads and platform fees, Zvi makes the case that mental transaction costs, time, focus, and the risk of addiction, are the most underappreciated barriers to participation. His framework: trade when the market justifies those costs, and not a moment before.Why Markets Are Still the Best Aggregators: Even as AI improves, prediction markets may become more powerful, not less, because they synthesize inputs from humans and AIs alike, including sources that hold private information they'd only reveal in exchange for profit.Subscribe to Investment Wars on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, and Spotify to ensure you never miss an episode.Hear more from Zvi Moshshowitz, subscribe to Don’t Worry About the Vase on SubStack.If you are a financial advisor interested in partnering with Obsidian CIO or would like to suggest a future guest, reach out at [email protected] DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing. The podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

In this episode of Investment Wars, Episode 36, sponsored by Obsidian CIO, host Joe Halpern (Managing Partner and CIO of Obsidian CIO) sits down with Robert Grunewald — a 30-year veteran of middle market finance — to deliver a ground-up education on private credit and direct lending.Private credit has been making negative headlines as of late. Investors are asking hard questions about valuations, covenants, defaults, and whether the risks are fully understood. This episode goes beyond the headlines, walking through how these deals actually work from origination to exit, and having an honest conversation about where the real risks and opportunities lie.  Key Topics Covered:  • How Direct Lending Works: A real-world deal walkthrough of a Texas metal plate rental company, how equity and debt are structured, what happens when a loan goes bad, and why first lien senior secured debt is fundamentally different from what imploded in 2008. • The PE Buyout Engine: Why 70–80% of direct lending is PE-sponsored, how add-on acquisitions generate repeat lending opportunities, and how private equity incentives may actually protect lenders.• The Vehicle Landscape: Public BDCs, private BDCs, interval funds, institutional separately managed accounts, and CLOs — how a single loan gets distributed across vehicles and why over half of all private credit loans end up in CLOs.• Size of Market & Covenant Risk: The $1.5 trillion private credit market, how rapid asset gathering by mega-managers has softened covenant protections, and why that matters for returns and downside protection.• The 2022 Vintage Problem: Why loans originated just before the rate hiking cycle have seen elevated losses, and how vintage diversification protects a portfolio.• Software Exposure & AI Disruption: Software is roughly 25% of the private credit market. Equity values are down ~25%; debt has moved from par to ~90 cents. How to think about concentration risk and why first lien positioning still provides meaningful protection.• Default Rate Reality: Default rates spiked from ~2% to ~5% but are now tracking back toward 3%. Why long-term investors should expect this volatility and not confuse cyclical stress with structural impairment.• The Illiquidity Premium: Private credit can offer 300+ basis points over publicly traded high yield. How to think about the return tradeoff, proper portfolio sizing, and realistic liquidity expectations.  Subscribe to Investment Wars on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, and Spotify to ensure you never miss an episode.  If you are a financial advisor interested in partnering with Obsidian CIO or would like to suggest a future guest, reach out at [email protected].  --  IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing. The podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: Liquidity, Valuation, and the Return of the Yield CurveFeaturing: David Sherman, Founder of CrossingBridge AdvisorsDavid Sherman joins Investment Wars for a wide-ranging discussion on navigating today’s complex fixed income and equity markets—from the aftermath of a decade of zero interest rates to the reemergence of inflation, tighter liquidity, and shifting policy dynamics. In this conversation, we explore how investor behavior evolved in an era of “easy money,” what lessons were learned when rates abruptly reversed, and how to think about liquidity, valuation, and ballast in a world of persistent uncertainty.In today’s episode, we explore:How the decade of zero and negative rates conditioned investor behavior and risk-takingWhy today’s “complicated” market reflects both tightening liquidity and elevated valuationsThe interplay between real rates, inflation, and policy expectations heading into 2026Practical frameworks for defining “ballast” in modern portfolios and matching assets to time horizonsThe importance of liquidity risk—and why many investors still aren’t pricing it correctlyOpportunities and risks in global high yield, including the growing appeal of Nordic credit marketsWhy private credit and direct lending may be less liquid (and less transparent) than investors assumeHow to rethink risk-free rates, personal cost of capital, and portfolio structure in a high-deficit worldSubscribe to Investment Wars on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, and Spotify to ensure you never miss an episode. For guest opportunities or to share feedback, contact us at [email protected].—IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: Direct Lending and the Evolution of Private CreditFeaturing: Alona Gornick, Managing Director & Senior Investment Strategist at Churchill Asset Management (an affiliate of Nuveen, the $1 trillion asset management arm of TIAA) Alona Gornick joins Investment Wars to break down one of the fastest-growing corners of alternative investing: direct lending to private U.S. companies. In a wide-ranging conversation, she explores the history of private credit, how regulation and bank consolidation created opportunity for asset managers, and why institutions and now individual investors are turning to the space for income, diversification, and resilience. From the role of private equity sponsors to the rise of retail-friendly structures, this episode demystifies a complex but increasingly essential part of the investment landscape. In today’s episode, we explore:The growth of private credit from niche strategy to a $2 trillion marketHow bank consolidation and post-GFC regulation opened the door for asset managersWhy institutions embraced private credit for yield, diversification, and inflation protectionThe five key features of direct lending: income, floating-rate inflation hedge, diversification, low volatility, and resilienceConcerns around “too much capital chasing deals”—and why demand still outstrips supplyThe rise of retail access via non-traded BDCs, interval funds, and innovative structuresWhy manager selection, track record in avoiding losses, and sourcing advantage are critical for investorsSubscribe to Investment Wars on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, and Spotify to ensure you never miss an episode. For guest opportunities or to share feedback, contact us at [email protected].—IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: Interest Rates and Economic Distortions Featuring: Paul Musson, Former Senior Portfolio Manager at Mackenzie Investments & Author of Capital OffencePaul Musson joins Investment Wars to unpack one of the most misunderstood forces shaping modern markets: interest rates. In a thought-provoking conversation that touches on inflation, money supply, and the consequences of government intervention, Musson makes the case for economic education and a return to first principles. From the natural rate of interest to the dangers of debt-fueled consumption, this episode offers a sharp critique of how policy distorts the economy—and what investors need to understand to navigate it.In today’s episode, we explore: The difference between the natural and neutral rates of interest—and why it mattersWhy a stable money supply may be better than endless expansionHow inflation arises when money growth outpaces productivityWhat good deflation looks like—and why it’s not necessarily badThe inflationary consequences of government stimulus during crisesHow education and transparency can empower better financial decision-makingWhy the current system rewards a few at the expense of many—and what needs to changeIs it time to rethink everything we’ve been taught about inflation, interest, and economic intervention?Subscribe to Investment Wars on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, and Spotify to ensure you never miss an episode. For guest opportunities or to share feedback, contact us at [email protected].—IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: Trade Imbalance – Is Reindustrialization the Key to U.S. Economic Resilience?Featuring: Eli Horton, Senior Portfolio Manager & Investment Committee Member at TCW.Eli Horton joins Investment Wars to debate one of the most pressing economic challenges of our time: the U.S. trade imbalance and the industrial response it demands. In a conversation spanning global supply chains, national security, and the race to rebuild domestic manufacturing, Horton explores how public and private capital expenditures (CapEx) and reshoring strategies are reshaping the investment landscape.In today’s episode, we explore:The economic and strategic implications of America’s persistent trade deficitsThe case for a manufacturing renaissance amid growing geopolitical tensionsLabor shortages and their inflationary impact as production returns homeThe role of Mexico and other nearshoring hubs in a multipolar supply chainHow the energy transition is fueling infrastructure demand and CapEx growthIdentifying the sectors and regions poised to benefit from strategic reshoringIs this the dawn of a new industrial era—or are we underestimating the challenges ahead? Subscribe to Investment Wars on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, and Spotify to ensure you never miss an episode. For guest opportunities or to share feedback, contact us at [email protected].—IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: Energy Infrastructure – Will It Double in the Next Decade?Featuring: Robert Thummel, Senior Portfolio Manager & Investment Committee Member at Tortoise Capital.As the U.S. power grid strains under the weight of rising demand, AI-fueled data centers, and shifting global energy dynamics, one sector stands at the center of it all: energy infrastructure. In this episode, we break down the critical—and often misunderstood—backbone of the modern energy system. With insights from industry veteran Rob Thummel, we explore: In today’s episode, we explore:What qualifies as “energy infrastructure”Why energy demand, flat for nearly two decades, is now set to surgeCan our grid and pipeline systems keep up—or are we already hitting bottlenecksWhy U.S. energy needs may diverge from the global pictureWhere investors should look for the best risk-adjusted opportunitiesSubscribe to Investment Wars on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, and Spotify to ensure you never miss an episode. For guest opportunities or to share feedback, contact us at [email protected].—IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: How to Measure and Navigate Market UncertaintyFeaturing: Professor Nick Bloom is the William Eberle Professor of Economics at Stanford University, Senior Fellow at SIEPR, and Co-Director of the Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship Program at the National Bureau of Economic Research.Uncertainty is one of the most critical—and elusive—forces shaping markets today. How is it measured? How does it affect economic and financial market behavior? And what strategies can help investors navigate periods of high uncertainty?  On Wednesday, April 2nd — “Liberation Day” — President Trump announced sweeping tariffs targeting countries with which the U.S. has trade imbalances. The tariffs, which disproportionately affected key allies, sent markets into a tailspin. In just 48 hours, U.S. equity markets suffered the greatest two-day destruction of market wealth on record. But even more troubling were the developments in the bond market, which ultimately triggered a 90-day policy pause.   While the direct math of tariffs implies rising inflation and falling consumption—raising risks of a recession or worse—the more complex and destabilizing element is uncertainty. In today’s episode, we explore:How uncertainty is measuredIts real-world impact on the economy and financial marketsStrategies for navigating uncertain market environmentsDon’t miss our discussion of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Indexes, co-developed by Professor Bloom and referenced throughout the episode.  Subscribe to Investment Wars on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, and Spotify to ensure you never miss an episode. For guest opportunities or to share feedback, contact us at [email protected].—IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: How Do I Select the “Right” ETF?Featuring: Adam Patti is the Co-founder and CEO of Vistashares, an ETF issuer designed to provide pure exposure to disruptive technology-driven supercycles. He is an industry pioneer and insider with vast ETF development and construction knowledge.There are at least 24 artificial intelligence-themed ETFs in the market. How can we differentiate one from the other and make an appropriate decision about which to buy? What factors should we be considering?In today’s episode, we explore:A brief history of the ETF marketHow ETFs revolutionized the capability to achieve tailored exposure among other benefitsAreas of focus when analyzing whether to buy an ETFSubscribe to Investment Wars on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, and Spotify to ensure you never miss an episode. For guest opportunities or to share feedback, contact us at [email protected].— IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: LA Fires - The Complexities of InsuranceFeaturing: Jerry Theodorou is the Director of the Finance, Insurance, and Trade Policy Program at the R Street Institute, a public policy research organization. In this role, he develops and promotes free-market public policy solutions to complex issues involving federal and state government interventions.In January, the LA area was ravaged by a series of devastating wildfires, notably the Palisades and Eaton Fires. Collectively there were over 16,000 structures destroyed, tens of thousands of evacuees, and 29 fatalities. Wildfires seem to be an annual event in California, destroying property and risking lives. In today’s episode, we explore:How the insurance industry has coped historically with catastrophes.The current state of insuring property in places with high risks of events like fire, hurricanes, and flooding.The future of the insurance industry. Subscribe to Investment Wars on YouTube, Apple Podcasts and Spotify to ensure you never miss an episode. For guest opportunities or to share feedback, contact us at [email protected].— IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: Innovation Episode - The Future of AIFeaturing: Tejas Dessai is a Director of Thematic Research at Global X. His research has been extensively covered in the tech and financial press, including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, The Washington Post, and Reuters. This is a timely conversation given the recent major release of DeepSeek V3 which upended the world of AI given its leap in efficiency – the claim is that it essentially matches the best available US models while being 20 – 50x cheaper to use. In this episode, Tejas and I have a broad conversation about AI and how it will affect the world, the economy, and the financial market going forward.We regularly reference Global X’s fantastic Charting Disruptions Outlook for 2025 and Beyond. Topics Include:America’s position in the global race to lead on AIThe ecosystem supporting AIImplications on various industries and jobs given the continued growth of AI Never miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.For inquiries: [email protected]— IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: Will the Fed Cut Rates in 2025?  Featuring: JoAnne Bianco, CFA is a Partner and Senior Investment Strategist at BondBloxx. Bondbloxx is the first ETF issuer to focus solely on providing precision tools in managing exposures within Fixed Income Markets. Prior to joining Bondbloxx, JoAnne was a Senior Portfolio Manager at PPM as well as Director of Corporate Bond Research. She has over thirty years of relevant fixed income experience.    This is a timely conversation in understanding some of the economic characteristics the Fed reviews as well as the many moving pieces globally that affect inflation, jobs, and the economy in general.  Topics Include:How a Fed cut affects the economy and financial marketsA review of inflation concernsAn outlook on financial markets including expectations of Fed actions in 2025Link: BondBloxx 2025 Fixed Income Market Outlook provided by JoAnne BiancoNever miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.For inquiries: [email protected]— IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: Are We Entering a New Golden Age of US Manufacturing?  Featuring: Chris Semenuk is a fund manager at Tema ETFs where he is currently focusing on the theme of American Reshoring as captured in the American Reshoring ETF (Ticker: RSHO). Prior, Chris was with TIAA where he was a portfolio manager for a $5 billion equities mutual fund.  The decision of where to place the next factory has become more complex as the cost in China and other global manufacturing hubs has increased dramatically as have the geopolitical risks. In this episode, we discuss how this story has evolved over the last twenty years before digging into the realities in the US, China, and globally as related to manufacturing.  Topics Include:How the US is now competitive in areas of manufacturingIncreasing risks of global logistics (e.g., piracy, climate)Government intervention through subsidies (e.g., CHIPs Act) and tariffsNever miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.For inquiries: [email protected]— IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: Should We Invest in China?  Featuring: Brendan Ahern, the Chief Investment Officer at KraneShares. He is a preeminent expert in global financial markets with a particular focus on China.  China is considered the second largest economy in the world behind the US yet represents less than 5% of a typical diversified global equity exposure as compared to over 50% for the US. In this episode, we dive into the current state of the Chinese economy.  Topics Include:A quick review of the rich history of China up to the present dayHow demographics and urbanization have affected growthA deep dive into the real estate sector given recent stressesPlease also check out China Last Night, a daily newsletter published by KraneShares and spearheaded by Brendan Ahern.  Never miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.For inquiries: [email protected]— IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: Why Are Interest Rates Now Declining?  Featuring: Lara Rhame, the Chief U.S. Economist and Managing Director on the Investment Research Team at FS Investments.  Last week, the Federal Reserve lowered the Federal Funds rate by 0.50%. This was the first decrease in rates in over two years, reflecting the start of an “easing” cycle. We explore what major market characteristics the Fed reviews in coming to their decision, and how this decision may affect yields both generally and to the economy as a whole.  Topics Include:What is “maximum employment” and why do we aim for a 2% inflation rate?The dangers of spiraling inflation or disinflationThe potential for a normalized curveNever miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.For inquiries: [email protected]— IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: What Will Jobs Look Like in 2040?  Featuring: Stephanie Aliaga, a Global Market Strategist with JP Morgan Asset Management assisting in formulating and communicating economic views, delivering timely commentary and maintaining forecasting models on behalf of JP Morgan. Additionally, Stephanie is on the committee that produces the long-term capital market assumptions underpinning JP Morgan’s strategic asset allocation process.  Please note JP Morgan’s AI Hub which further details some of the ways AI will affect the future of jobs, a discussion point on our podcast.  Last month, the Labor Department reduced its original estimate of jobs added in the prior year by 800,000! We explore why the large reduction as well as how many jobs adds are actually needed to maintain a humming economy prior to shifting focus on some of the characteristics affecting today’s job market. We further explore how innovations may change the look and feel of future jobs.  Topics include:Demographics and immigrations effect on net new jobs.AI and Robotics and what is in store for productivity.The state of jobs in 2040.Never miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.For inquiries: [email protected]— IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: NEW JERSEY! Is NJ a Bellwether for What Lies Ahead for the US in a Complex and Changing World?Featuring: John Hasse, Professor of Geography at Rowan University, Director of the Geospatial Research Lab, and Director of the Community and Environmental Planning Program.New Jersey, the most dense state in the US, features 127 miles of coast, deep ports beneficial for shipping, prime agricultural soils, highlands, ridges and valleys. We explore how the “big history” of New Jersey affects its planning and its economy. And how what happens in New Jersey is both a microcosm of and a leading indicator for the future of the United States.  Topics include:How NJ geography affects the use of the landUrbanization and re-urbanizationAreas where NJ leads the countryWe reference www.njmap2.com in this podcast. Never miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.For inquiries: [email protected]— IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: The Upcoming Election: Will the Winner Materially Affect Market Performance in the Near Term?Featuring: Paul Hickey, co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group.  40% of the population will be devastated come November 5th as their (hopefully) voted for president-elect loses. While we emphasize and are saddened by the polarization in our political system, we explore how much our next president actually affects near term financial market performance.  Topics include:Where our political parties align (e.g., China!) and expected effects on the market.Where our political parties diverge (e.g., Social services and regulation) and expected effects on the market.A case study using Apple as proxy for expected affects on revenues, cost and sentiment.Never miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.For inquiries: [email protected]— IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: How Demographics May Affect Future Interest Rate and Debt Levels  Featuring: James Meyers, CFA, Principal and Portfolio Strategist for Prudential Group Investment Management (PGIM) Fixed Income.   We discuss how shifting demographics (i.e. America is getting older!) will affect pretty much everything in our economy inclusive of productivity, tax rates, debt levels and interest rates. When a population ages, you simply have fewer people relative to the population able to participate in the workforce which puts pressure on all of society. Will innovation and further general advancements in technology allow us to mitigate these risks or are we heading into a lower-growth, more expensive environment?    Topics include:How aging demographics affected other developed countries, notably JapanHow a shift in demographics affects tax, consumer spend and government assistanceMitigating age through productivity and immigrationNever miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.For inquiries: [email protected]— IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: Will the Crypto Ecosystem Disrupt Both Fiat Currency and Digital Technologies?Featuring: David LaValle, Senior Managing Director and Global Head of ETFs at Grayscale Investments, the world’s largest digital currency asset manager.  We discuss how cryptocurrencies may live side by side with a fiat currency like the US Dollar or the Nigerian Naira to use an example of a weaker currency and financial system and how one may think through elements of the crypto ecosystem such as currencies, smart contracts, and financial systems.  Topics include:What just happened in Nigeria! And why?Are cryptocurrencies a storer of value, a type of currency or both?Crypto basicsDisruptive technology and future innovationNever miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.For inquiries: [email protected]— IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: Will the Fed Really Cut Rates Three Times this Year?  Featuring: Michael Shaoul, Chairman, Portfolio Manager and CEO of Marketfield Asset Management, an asset manager specializing in global macro investing.  Macro investing focuses on an in-depth analysis of the economic, monetary and credit environments in assessing what markets and products to have exposure to. Using this context, one can better appreciate what it means to have set interest rates and how differing factors may contribute to headline inflation.  Topics Include:The potential dangers of lowering federal fund rates too fastHow the economy is currently faringWarning signs in certain sectors of the marketsNever miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.For inquiries: [email protected]— IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: Do Recent Disruptions in the Real Estate Sector Create Opportunity in 2024?  Featuring: Lauren Hochfelder, Co-Chief Executive Officer of Morgan Stanley Real Estate Investing (“MSREI”) and Head of MSREI Americas, one of the longest-tenured real estate investment management businesses, with a number of offerings across the risk spectrum.The Real Estate sector has experienced one disruption after another as Covid ravaged the commercial office building sector quickly followed by supply chain issues, increasing inflation and finally significantly higher borrowing costs affecting the values of property across America. We are privileged to have Lauren Hochfelder on the show to help navigate this complicated story and uncover potential opportunities.  Topics Include:Did Covid permanently change or simply speed up secular trends?Is commercial office space going the way of the mall or is there more nuance here?What exactly constitutes “commercial” retail nowadays?How does reshoring/onshoring affect the real estate markets?Effects of E-delivery and logistics?What are the millennials going to do?Is there truth in the impending “debt maturity wall”?Do high yields and general disruption spell gloom or opportunity?Never miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.For inquiries: [email protected]— IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: Will Robots Take over the World?!Featuring: Zeno Mercer, an expert on Robotics with VettaFi RoboGlobal Indexes. Zeno is an Investor & Researcher in Robotics, AI & Healthcare.Amazon may have more robot “workers” than human ones. Robots are increasingly replacing humans on factory floors given upgrades in their technologies. Furthermore, robots may be an integral part of the answer to current and potential continuous labor shortages as reshoring occurs (note Episode 14) given recent geopolitical tensions and increased government spend in infrastructure and manufacturing. Topics Include:What distinguishes a robot from a tool or machine.A review of the last few generations or robots and what is to come.The incredible dexterity that robots now have.How automation, AI and robots create the tools to accomplish almost anything robotically over the near future.Can robots take over the world?Never miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.For inquiries: [email protected]— IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: How Strong Is the Trend Towards Reshoring of Manufacturing?Featuring: Chris Semenuk, Investment Partner with Tema ETFs.Is the trend towards reshoring due to recent stresses to the global supply chain or a trend that has been occurring regardless and now simply accelerating due to geopolitical considerations? One may be surprised at conclusions drawn.Topics include:Broad overview leading to current globalized tradeHighlighted vulnerabilities within the supply chainThe reality of when the onshoring trend actually beganThe changing equation of Total Cost of Ownership as applies to produced goodsReferenced Speech: The Biden administration’s international economic agenda: A conversation with National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan | BrookingsNever miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.For inquiries: [email protected]— IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Special Episode: An Insider View of Disruption within the Auto Industry Featuring: Dr. Philip Koehn, who has over two decades of experience in the Luxury auto industry, formerly as Managing Director of Jaguar and prior as Chief Engineering Director for Rolls Royce Motors. Some topics covered include:Advantages and disadvantages of Electric Drive vs. the Combustion EngineHow technology plays a role in upstarts vs incumbentsChina’s adventures in EV – can they compete?The future of autonomous vehiclesHappy Holidays from the Investment Wars Team!Never miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.For inquiries: [email protected]— IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: Is Commercial Real Estate a Risk or Opportunity?Featuring: Burl East, Portfolio Manager and Chief Executive Officer of American Assets Capital Advisers to speak with us about Real Estate.Markets have priced in a significant decline in the commercial office space sector due primarily to the twin threats of the hybrid work environment and increased interest rates. Will office space go the way of the mall? Do these operator’s have the necessary interest coverage? And who are the winners and losers in the commercial space?Additionally, Burl and I delve into other areas of the real estate market, including cell towers, industrial, and RV parks as real estate is so much more than simply office buildings and residential.Topics include:Commercial real estate, commercial office towers, cell towers, industrial real estate, interest rates, hybrid work, interest coverageNever miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.For inquiries: [email protected]— IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: "Will the US Have a Deep Recession?"Featuring: Victoria Vogel, CFA, Senior Vice President and Product Specialist for Fixed Income at Trust Company of the West (TCW).Simply stated, interest rates have increased 5.25% over the last 20 months which will place pressures on the consumer and business alike. Savings rates are at multi-decade highs as are credit card delinquencies with job growth and wages further diminishing. Learn more about some of the negative characteristics in the markets today that may spell a deeper recession than the street is expecting.It is worth listening to this podcast AND the prior podcast where we spoke about whether the US would have a MILD recession in order to better appreciate some of the nuances driving the market.In this podcast, our host, Joe Halpern, CIO of Fountainhead Asset Management has a wide ranging conversation with Victoria Vogel on the positives and negatives of today’s economy and what that may mean for a potential recession down the road.Topics include:State of the economyJobs and wagesBalance sheet of consumers and corporationsNever miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.For inquiries: [email protected]— IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: "Will the US Have a Shallow Recession?"Featuring: Jack Janasiewicz, CFA, Portfolio Manager and Lead Portfolio Strategist for Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. Sticky inflation, a hawkish Fed that is keeping interest rates high, placing increasing pressure on borrowers, a concerning global geo-political environment. These are concerns for the economy, not to mention an inverted yield curve that traditionally ends with recession. In this podcast, our host, Joe Halpern, CIO of Fountainhead Asset Management has a wide ranging conversation with Jack Janasiewicz, CFA, Portfolio Manager and Lead Portfolio Strategist for Natixis Investment Managers Solution on the positives and negatives of today’s economy and what that may mean for a potential recession down the road. Topics include: State of the economyJobs and wagesHousingBalance sheet of consumers and corporationsGeo-political concernsNever miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.For inquiries: [email protected]— IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: "China in Transition: Will the Chinese Consumer and Capital Spend Driven Innovation Propel China Forward?"Featuring: Malcolm Dorson, Head of Emerging Markets Strategy and a Senior Portfolio Manager at Global X and Scott Helfstein, a PHD who is Head of Thematic Solutions at Global X.China is in a transition: On one hand, declining global trade, debt issues in the real estate sector, aging and problematic demographic characteristics and increased friction with the West among other negative issues can lead to further slowdowns or even reversals in GDP. On the other, China still has much room for growth given their population is not urbanized to the extent of other developed nations (~60% vs 80% - 90% in USA, Europe, Korea and Japan) and consumer spend is at ~20% of GDP vs 45% in the US. And while not discussed much, China is spending heavily on future innovations inclusive of the future of energy where they outspend the US by 5x on EV. Never miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.For inquiries: [email protected]— IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

After a breather taken during August we are excited about the upcoming podcasts we plan to publish discussing how the future path of China affects global markets, innovation and the inverted yield curve. Tune in to hear the debates around these exciting topics.Never miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.For inquiries: [email protected]— IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: "How Do Higher Rates Affect the Economy and Market?"Featuring: Bob Grunewald, CEO & Founder of Flat Rock Global, an alternative credit manager investing in areas of the credit market they believe are less efficient with the goal of preserving capital and generating current income. In the face of a once in a century event, the government provided massive aid packages to the population during a period of already historically low interest rates. Consumer savings rates grew exponentially as remote work became a permanent feature and as service related businesses temporarily went off-line. At the same time, a global supply chain built for efficiency but not risk (i.e., redundancy and inventory) came to a screeching halt. The supply / demand construct went haywire and inflation increased worldwide. Then, Russia invaded Ukraine resulting in skyrocketing energy and food costs. Many believed inflationary pressures would be temporary but it proved to be more stubborn than initially conceived. The Fed has so far raised interest rates at one of the quickest paces in history. This is considered “tightening” policy as the Fed is using this blunt tool to add expense to the system in addressing one of their primary objectives – to maintain inflation in a tight range. Consumers have used up much of those savings provided through aid packages and the student loan moratorium, which represents 9% of consumer debt is about to be up. Now both consumers and companies need to contend with materially higher borrowing costs.Topics reviewed:Context of how the increase in yields affect a typical companyHow variable vs fixed rate debt are faring in the current environmentPrivate vs public company debtHow the consumer is holding upViews on yield curve inversion and inflationThree letter words: CLO Investing – what is it and why it isn’t quite so scaryNever miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.For inquiries: [email protected]— IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: "The Resilience of the 60/40 Portfolio"Featuring Chris Tidmore, Senior Manager for the Vanguard Investment Advisory Research Center.The 60/40 portfolio is perhaps the most popular approach to portfolio construction. Yet, in 2022, the 60/40 performed poorly as both equity and fixed income markets experienced double digit declines. What are the positives and negatives of this approach to investing? What are some attributes to consider? And are there perhaps better approaches to explore? All this and more is discussed in a wide-ranging and compelling conversation with Chris.Never miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.For inquiries: [email protected]— IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: “Will We Have a Hard Landing?”Featuring Matthew Miskin, Co-Chief Investment Strategist at John Hancock Investment Management.We have had one of the quickest and sharpest Fed rate hikes in history with federal funds yielding 5% - 5.25%, on the high side historically. Increasing rates is considered a “tightening” policy and is designed to slow the economy for one reason or another – the most recent justification due to fears of runaway inflation. As our guest Matt mentioned, it takes time for those yields to work its way through the market but there is no doubt it is having an effect. Simply put, consumers and companies alike now need to pay more interest when borrowing money. Will the pressure of higher borrowing rates result in a recession? And will that recession be quick and painless or long and painful? To find out, tune in to my and Matt’s wide ranging conversation exploring the reasons for and various possibilities of a recession.Never miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.For inquiries: [email protected]— IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: “US Debt Levels are Too High”Featuring Matt Orton, Head of Advisory Solutions and Market Strategy at Raymond James Investment Management.Congress passed the increase of our debt ceiling in the nick of time, averting the potential for the first US default on it’s debt – which we believe would have been devastating for both the US and global economy. However, the question remains – is our debt too high?To answer this question, Matt and I have a wide ranging conversation inclusive of comparing government debt to that of corporations and individuals and checking in with other developed market countries with a focus on Japan whose debt levels are close to twice ours. We also cover what affects a high debt level may have on the economy longer term, and ways that the debt level may come down in the future.This conversation is intertwined with past conversations we have had on demographics and the future of jobs as one touches on the realities that we may need to support more of the population in retirement age relative to today while AI, robotics and other technological innovations may assist in bringing down future costs – and debt.Never miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.For inquiries: [email protected]— IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: “Wage Inflation Will Increase for the Foreseeable Future Due to a Tight Supply of Workers”Featuring Jeremie Capron, Director of Research and Managing Partner at Robo Global, and Matthew Bartolini, Managing Director, Head of SPDR Americas Research for State Street Global. While there was a bit less of a “war” then usual, there were some relevant comments about the future of jobs and how it would affect inflation. For example, Jeremie highlighted how every time we have gone through a transition – agriculture, tech etc. – we came out the other side wealthier and with more jobs – this is a significant positive that is rather inflation neutral. However, Matt noted a number of factors to believe we are in a new paradigm that may keep wage inflation high inclusive of the fact that nearly 30% of work spent is now done remotely, providing workers the flexibility and therefore edge to move more easily and the fact that the minimum wage has not kept up with inflation placing further upward pressure as the low end of wages gets pushed higher through regulation. Following up on our prior episode, the fact that the world is aging will result in less population to fill jobs which may keep pressures on wage inflation for the foreseeable future – hopefully the productivity and efficiency Jeremie speaks to on this episode allows for wealth to continue to grow quicker than the inflation this may produce.Never miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. For inquiries: [email protected]— IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: “Aging of the US Population Will Cause Deflation”Featuring Brian LoDestro, Senior Portfolio Strategist at PGIM Fixed Income, and Douglas Gimple, Senior Portfolio Specialist, Fixed Income at Diamond Hill Capital Management, Inc.Brian argued the affirmative: An aging population is expected to spend less for a variety of reasons. There will also be less workers and, historically speaking, when the labor force contracts so does economic growth. Less growth is deflationary. Ultimately, demand will slacken due to these reasons resulting in a deflationary environment.Douglas argued the negative: He agreed that demand may slacken but so will supply for similar reasons – less workers producing product. Less workers can result in wage inflation due to labor shortages as well as product scarcity. Fair points for the case for potential inflationary pressures from aging demographics.What we all agree on is that the developed markets primarily represented by the US, Europe and Japan is aging with population declines expected absent immigration. This is a long term characteristic to keep in mind as investors prepare for retirement.Definitions: CPI: Consumer Price Index is a measure of the monthly change in prices paid by US consumers for a set basket of goods and services. It is a major measurement of inflation, relied upon by the Fed in making rate decisions.PCE: Personal Consumption expenditures is a measure of spending on goods and services by people in the US. PCE is a broader view on spending as compared to CPI. Never miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. For inquiries: [email protected]—IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Introducing...Investment Wars! Our inaugural episode features Meera Pandit, Executive Director, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management & Lara Rhame, Chief U.S. Economist at FS Investments. In this episode, the two go head-to head in a debate on the following claim: inflation will revert to the Fed goal of 2% in the next 1 - 3 years.Never miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and iHeartRadio.For inquiries: [email protected] — IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.