Maley Market Strategy Podcast

In this week's edition, we discuss why the current rally in the stock market is being fueled more by excess liquidity than positive earnings growth.  The earnings growth IS good, but it's also isolated to just a handful of stocks.  We also highlight several stocks and groups which should takeover the leadership role in this rally...from some of the high flying tech names that have become extremely expensive and extremely overbought.   We also discuss an area of the credit market (which is not private credit) which is showing signs of stress...and could create problems for the the rally in the coming weeks.

In this week's podcast, we talk about the idea that although stronger earnings growth is playing a key role in the stock market advance...there is another issue that is even more important.  We discuss whether this can continue for many months like it did last year......We also talk about the stocks which are getting ahead of themselves and which ones are poised to breakout.....Finally, we touch on on strategy that should help investors if the market hits a speed bump soon.

In this week's podcast, we talk about our concerns with the fact that the tech stocks (especially the chips) are getting quite overbought at a time when bond yields are back at their 2026 highs...and oil prices are doing the same.....We also discuss how certainly areas of the market should outperform before long...after getting beaten down recently.  

In this week's edition, we spend a lot of time discussing the misconceptions about what is driving the stock market right now.  We are only a few weeks away from a major turning point in the war in the Middle East.....How strong are earnings?....Which stocks will outperform going forward?  Find out in this week's Podcast!

The global economy is already looking at some real shortages of key commodities.  If the blockade lasts for any material amount of time (just a few weeks), it will create the kind of serious shortages that will create a global shutdown.  This does not mean we'll see a repeat of the sudden pandemic crash of 2020, but it will still be serious.  Therefore, we expect the President to get a deal done with Iran soon......The markets are already sniffing this out, so they are rallying again, but we won't see the kind of sustained rebound we saw last year (after the tariff panic).

In this week's episode, we touch on the thought that since the President cannot flip the switch and change on the market reacts to the war in the Middle East (like he did last year with the tariff issue), trying to "jawbone" the market is not going to have the same kind of lasting impact this year. We also highlight how the issue of "shortages" is going to become a problem soon...and why we think there is one sector which should provide a win/win situation for investors over the coming weeks/months. Finally, we touch on the fact that the problems facing the AI and private credit markets could become quickly exacerbated by war in the Middle East and it's impact on oil prices.  

In this week's edition, we discuss the difference between what was going on in the markets at this point last year compared to now.  The President cannot flip a switch like he did last year...and there are significant questions about how far Israel and Iran will go to meet their goals.....We also discuss how the private credit market is not something that is going to go away......Finally, we touch on our belief that the downside risks in the marketplace right now are quite a big larger than the upside potential.

The real goal of the war in the Middle East is to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities and remove their uranium.  This will take time, so the war will continue...and oil prices will remain high......We also discuss the broadening stress in the credit markets...as well as which stocks (and other risk assets) that should outperforming going forward. 

As much as the price of oil is extremely important to the economy and the markets, we also have a credit market that is experiencing growing stress.  We also have headwinds surrounding the profitability of the AI industry.  Therefore, the upside potential for the stock market is limited and stock selection & sector selection will be critical going forward.  We cover these and other issues this week...including which stocks/sectors should outperform going forward.

The reaction in the stock market to the war in Iran has been quite benign.  However, with the issues surrounding AI still out there...and the level of stress rising in the credit markets...investors need to guard against becoming complacent.....We talk about these issues...and which stocks and groups should outperform going forward...it this week's podcast.

In this week's podcast, we discuss the impact of Nvidia's earnings and why the chip stock remain extremely important for the rest of the stock market.  We also touch on why we remain bullish on the energy stocks...and we review the other groups (and individual stocks) which we like over the coming months.....Finally, we spend a lot of time why investors are too complacent about both the headwinds facing both the AI industry...AND the rising stress in the credit markets.  (Ignore Jamie Dimon's warnings at your own risk.)

In this week’s edition, we discuss how much of an impact the crash in Bitcoin had on other risk assets…and whether that impact will last. We also touch on out outlook on precious metals (which has been spot-on for many, many months)….We also talk about the situation with Iran…and what that will mean for the energy stocks…..Finally, we discuss why we believe that although the Trump Administration cares very much about the stock market, they might not care as much over the near-term.

With silver and gold, we were very bullish...very early...and that worked well.  We were also spot-on in looking for a pullback recently.  This week, we discuss out outlook going forward on the precious metals.....We also discuss our top picks in the energy sector...as well as some strong picks for the longer-term.....Finally, we touch on our unique outlook for several different markets over the next 3-4 months.

In this week's edition, we touch on how this week's earnings from the four Mag 7 companies that report will be important.  We also touch on some key names would should outperform going forward.  However, our focus in on the dangers that exist in the marketplace from the developments in the global fixed income and currency markets.  

In this week's edition, we discuss how the breakout in long-term bond yields in the US (and other countries...like Japan) are raising the risks in the stock market.  This could create a similar correction to what we saw last February/March.  The geopolitical uncertainty is not helping this situation.....We talk about how the "rotation" issue in the marketplace will likely playout over the coming weeks and months as well.

In this week's edition, we discussed the implications for the markets of the new developments on the political front (between the Administration & Fed Chair Powell), and on the geopolitical front (Venezuela, Iran, etc.)  These issues could should create a sizeable increase in volatility rather soon.  It should also help one particular stock outperform in 2026. We also discussed why the bond market stands at a critical level...and why stocks will need a VERY good earning season (given that the expectations for earnings have become so elevated).....We also touch on several other specific stocks which should outperform in the weeks ahead. 

In this week's episode, we discuss why it is quite unlikely that the tech stocks will provide the kind of leadership that it has in recent years.  More importantly, we touch on the groups which should takeover that leadership (plus a few individual stocks as well)......We also discuss why the bond market will be extremely important next year.  Just because short term rates are falling, it does not mean that long-term yields will fall as well.

In this week's episode, we discuss why one important group of investors will not be as reluctant as they are right now to lower their exposure to the AI industry in a much more meaningful way in the new year...as it is becoming more and more evident (obvious) that the profitability of AI is n ot going to be as strong or as broad as investors had been thinking......We also highlight several groups (and stocks) which should benefit from any rotation out of the tech sector in 2026.

The "set up" for the bond market and the stock market are very different as we head into the Fed's December meeting.  Why discuss why we believe this divergence will end very soon...and while it will have profound implications for both asset classes......We also touch on several specific stocks which we believe will outperform in the months ahead.

In this week's edition, we discuss why one key asset class should outperform all others...over BOTH the near-term AND the longer-term...and who the winners and losers will be from these moves.  We also review the recent results from the Black Friday sales and highlight which stocks should benefit from today's consumer trends.  Finally, we talk about which stocks should do well if the market sees a Santa Claus rally.

In this week's episode, we discuss how some subtle, BUT IMPORTANT, changes have taken place in the AI narrative, in the Fed's stance, and in the credit markets...which raise questions about whether the recent bounce in the stock market will have legs.  We also highlight the stocks and groups which will likely outperform over the rest of this year. 

In this week's podcast, we talk about how something very important HAS changed with both the AI trade and with the Fed.  This is taking place at a time when the stock indices and the Treasury bond prices are testing critical support levels.....Therefore, the action in the market over the next week or to is going to be critical for how the markets act over the rest of the year.

The end of the government shutdown is positive, but since it didn't hurt the market, it won't help it for long now that it's over.  Instead, the action in the tech stocks will continue to be KEY...and it has not been very smooth lately.  Therefore, we're still worried about a near-term pullback in the markets.  Finally, we highlight two stocks that are getting ripe for a breakout.

In this week's podcast, we discuss why no matter where the market is going over the intermediate and long-term, it's ripe for a near-term pullback...led by the chip stocks.  (We also discuss why our short-term negative calls on Palantir and AMD have worked so well.)....We also highlight how the credit markets are creating problems....and the outlook for the precious metals and Bitcoin.

In this week's edition, we describe why the stock market is at a critical juncture and why this week's Fed meeting and (especially) the earnings from "big tech" hold the keys.....Despite the general narrative on Wall Street, earnings growth estimates have not increased much at all.  So, we need good news from the tech sector...and more accomodation from the Fed...to keep the rally going near-term.

After seeing Beyond Meat rally 1,400% at one point this week, there is little question that the is an extreme level of speculation in the stock market.  When you combine this action with the incredibly stretched valuations based on the promise of big earnings at some point in the future...and we're definitely looking at a bubble.  However, they keep inflating for a very long time.  So, in this week's edition, we discuss what we'll be looking for to signal a top...and cover which stocks/groups should outperform in the mean time.  

In this week's edition, we discuss why the tariff situation with China is not going away.  China has not had to give in much at all......Also, the upcoming earnings season is going to be critical.  Earnings have not been the big driver that many on Wall Street are trying to say it is.  Multiple expansion has been the key...and that is not sustainable.

The stock market is definitely in a bubble, but this does not mean that it cannot move higher before it bursts.  We talk about where to play things aggressively now...while keeping some defensive plays.

In this week's edition, we discuss the technical outlook for the major stock averages...as well as for the key technology ETFs.  We also highlight two key tech names which have been lagging, but are poised to play catch up if the tech rally continues.....On top of these issues, we talk about which developments could create some volatility as we move into the month of October

In this week's podcast, we discuss why it is becoming very apparent that global sovereign debt markets are finally starting to price-in the problems that are growing with budget deficits around the world.  It won't be long before it impact global stock markets (including in the US).

In this week's edition, we talk about how this momentum driven market could still rally further...and what groups will lead the way if it does.  However, we also show why this is NOT a fundamentally driven rally...despite how so many Wall Street pundits try to portray it.  Therefore, investors HAVE to remain VERY nimble.

In this week's episode, we discuss how the history of the past 25 years shows that a meaningful drop in interest rates usually signals an outside slowdown in growth.  That in turn, is negative for the stock market, NOT positive.  Now that the employment picture is deteriorating, the economic outlook is becoming more important than AI...especially since the ROI on AI spending continues to be very poor.

In this week's edition, we discuss how the rise in GLOBAL long-term interest rates is showing that the bond market is finally starting to seriously take budgetary issues into consideration.....We also discuss one ETF which NEEDS to be followed extremely closely over he coming weeks....Finally, we provide a few new ideas to play on the long side of things

It this week's edition, we spend a lot of time talking about why investors should be careful about assuming that the Fed will cut aggressively (at all) going forward.  So, they shouldn't be using it as a reason to think stocks will push a lot higher.  The Fed does not get aggressive until the market has already fallen in a significant way......Also, we touch on what we think can outperform over the coming weeks.

In this week's podcast, Mary and I discuss some of the newest developments in the marketplace and how they're showing some concerning cracks in this rally.  The impact of the tariffs are just starting to begin...and despite what we hear & read in the financial press, this earnings season has not been anywhere near as impressive as they portray it.......However, we provide some ideas that should work well over the rest of the year...whether the rally continues or not!

In this week's edition, we discuss why the odds are much higher than most investors realize that the stock market is very likely getting very close to an important top......We're in a bubble, and when bubbles burst, they are always followed by a bad bear market...not just a correction or even a run of the mill bear market......Therefore, investors need to be acting accordingly. 

In this weekend's podcast, Mary and I discuss which earnings reports will have the biggest impact on the markets this week.  However, we also talk about the Fed and why it's so important to avoid misinterpreting what they do and what their goals really are.  This will be very important for investors over the rest of this year.

It this week's edition, we review a list of some of the very profitable calls we've made so far this year...and which ones should still work going forward.  Even though the market is very expensive and thus filled with more risk than usual, there are still many great opportunities out there.

In this week's podcast, we discuss why although the new record in the stock market is impressive, many risks still abound.  Therefore, having SOME cash on the sidelines is still a good idea.....We also discuss the stocks and groups which should do well over the rest of this year.

With the cease fire in the Middle East, the level of risk in the stock market has come down, but it's still higher than the potential reward.  So, investors still need to keep some cash on the sidelines.  However, one group that looks good on both the fundamental and technical side of things in the banks.  These names are poised to finally outperforming going foward.

The developments out of the Middle East have helped the risk-reward equation, but it it is still weighted towards the side of risk.  The fact that the stock market is still expensive at a time where growth is slowing and earnings estimates are falling, the "Fear of Missing Out" should not be very high right now.

Given how expensive the stock market has become once again...and now with geopolitical risks rising...the upside potential is only about 3%-5%.  However, the downside risks are 10%-20%.  So, investors should not be complacent at current levels.

In this week's podcast, we talk about why the stock market could easily see a new all-time high, but there are still some significant risks for the longer-term.  Remember, spring "scares" are frequently followed by bigger problems in the fall.....Also, silver is seeing a strong breakout and this is likely signaling a very strong rally-leg for this precious metal.

The upside potential for the stock market is a new all-time high, but that still keeps the upside at about 5%-6%.  However, the downside risks are for a 10%-20% decline...even if we avoid a recession...given that the economy is definitely slowing and earnings estimates continue to decline.  

The momentum in the stock market is strong, so it could make a new all-time high.  However, investors seem to be equating the fact that we're not going to get the worst-case scenario on the tariff issue...with the thought that the economy is going to see the best-case scenario.....Instead, the upside potential is smaller than the downside risk after the recent strong bounce off the April lows.

The agreement between the US and China on tariffs does lower the odds of recession.  However, there are still other reasons to be concerns about today's very expensive market.  That said, we do have some good picks in some names that should do well no matter which way the broad stock market goes over the coming weeks and months.

The reaction to the foundation for a trade agreement between the US and China is certainly positive.  However, there are still several very important headwinds from outside the tariff issue that remain intact...including higher long-term interest rates.  Given that the stock market has become extremely expensive again, this could/should mean that we'll still see plenty of volatility in the weeks and months ahead.

The fundamental outlook for the stock market is not strong enough to justify a further rally from current levels.  That said, the major averages are all testing key technical levels, so the negotiations with China this weekend should be very important for the stock market's next big move.

The economy is weakening and earnings are falling.  This is not good a tall for a stock market that is still very expensive.....The stock market cannot trade at 20x forward earnings (or even close to that) without major liquidity injections...and the Fed is signaling that they won't be providing those injections.

Even if Trump keeps "blinking" on the trade issue, a further decline in earnings estimates is unavoidable.  The trade issue will merely turn an inevitable deep correction...into a bear market.