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EMAIL SUBJECT: Market Flash – April 28, 2026 — New US highs, but beneath the surface the system is fragile MARKET FLASH – APRIL 28, 2026 In this episode:The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new all-time highs, driven by positioning and better-than-expected earnings. The rally was fueled by the forced re-entry of systematic funds, retail flows, and hedge fund short covering, but the geopolitical backdrop remains far from resolved.The US earnings season is surprising to the upside by roughly 10% above already optimistic expectations. Intel raised its guidance and the SOX posted 18 consecutive positive sessions (+50%) — something not seen even during the tech bubble. Attention now shifts to Amazon, Meta, and Google.Europe remains in the balance: Stoxx 600 growth is driven almost entirely by energy and financials, German PMIs have fallen back into contraction, and margins are starting to compress across the production chain. The energy shock is feeding through into the real economy.The Strait of Hormuz is no longer just a physical chokepoint but a geopolitical and financial instrument, with US military presence increasing. Markets are pricing a swift normalization, but the reality on the ground is much slower and more unstable. This is a multi-fuel crisis about real availability, not just prices.The key message is one of informed caution: strong markets and solid earnings coexist with deep vulnerabilities — geopolitical tensions, energy scarcity, margin pressure, and the risk of more persistent inflation. Beneath the surface, the global system is far more fragile than asset prices suggest. Central bank meetings are also on the agenda this week: guidance on inflation and energy costs will be critical in shaping expectations around the timing and scale of future rate moves. To learn more, listen to the latest episode of the Market Flash podcast, hosted by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.Opus 4.6

In this episode:The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted seven consecutive up days while Europe recorded its strongest single-day rally since March 2022. The rebound has been rapid, almost V-shaped, but the backdrop remains far more fragile than prices suggest.The two-week truce looks more like a tactical pause than a solution: no strategic objective achieved, no nuclear deal, no return to energy normality. The estimated cost to the US runs close to 1 billion dollars a day.The central issue remains Hormuz: headlines read "ceasefire," but in practice traffic through the Strait is still heavily reduced. The market is pricing financial peace well before physical peace, with much of the good news already baked in.The energy crisis is multi-fuel and potentially more systemic than 2022, with energy security driving structural demand for strategic metals. Inflation risks transmitting more deeply, while earnings season begins with +12% EPS expectations in a macro-driven market.The key message is one of clear-eyed caution: the market has risen because it chose to believe the worst can still be avoided, but history teaches us that after shocks of this kind, the path is rarely a perfect V — far more often a W, made up of rebounds, fresh disappointments, and repeated tests of confidence. This is a time to stay cautious and, when appropriate, think like a contrarian. For more, listen to the latest episode of the Market Flash podcast, by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.

In this episode:The past two weeks have marked a sharp acceleration: what was once a choppy sea has turned into a full-blown storm. March is closing with one of the worst combined performances for equities and bonds since 2022, with Brent firmly above $110, up more than 60% since the start of the conflict.Markets continue to tell themselves a reassuring story, but signals beneath the surface suggest we may only be at the beginning of something more profound. The comparison now emerging is no longer 2022, but 2007–2008: the buffers that existed back then are today much thinner.The real game-changer in this crisis is gas. The disruption at Hormuz and the damage in Qatar have sent Asian gas prices surging by more than 150% in just a few weeks. Energy is becoming political leverage: the United States is using it as a negotiating tool with Europe, with agreements tied to roughly $750 billion in energy supply.Investors are selling everything at once — equities, bonds and even gold — moving into cash, but from historically low levels. The de-risking process may only just be beginning, with a real risk of entering a stagflationary environment that further complicates the mandate of central banks.The key message is one of clarity: what is needed is composure, discipline, and the courage to make decisions with a clear head, not out of fear. In markets, just as at sea, it is not those who avoid the storm who prevail — but those who navigate through it without losing their way. To find out more, listen to the latest episode of the Market Flash podcast, hosted by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.

In this episode:Recent weeks have confirmed an increasingly complex market environment. Despite some signs of apparent geopolitical easing, macro markets continue to signal greater tension than what is reflected in equity indices. Oil remains close to $100 per barrel, U.S. Treasury yields have risen significantly, and inflation and credit indicators point to a gradual tightening of financial conditions. Equity indices, however, remain relatively close to their highs, suggesting that the market is still betting on a temporary crisis rather than a genuine regime change.Beyond energy, vulnerabilities are emerging across several strategic supply chains, including aluminum, refined fuels such as jet fuel, industrial gases like helium—critical for semiconductor production—and fertilizers. Essential infrastructure such as water desalination plants in the Gulf also represents potential points of fragility in the event of a prolonged conflict.This combination of pressures on energy, metals, and production chains increases the risk of a more complex macro scenario, characterized by persistent inflation and weaker growth. Such a backdrop complicates the task of central banks, precisely as the European Central Bank prepares for its next meeting amid high uncertainty.Equity markets are also reflecting this more uncertain environment. Major indices still show some resilience, but beneath the surface there are signs of growing nervousness, with sector rotation in Europe affecting cyclical industries such as luxury, construction, banking, and travel. In this context, some investors are once again looking with greater interest at large U.S. technology companies, perceived as more resilient businesses in an uncertain geopolitical environment.The key message remains cautious. In a market increasingly characterized by uncertainty and rapid rotations, flexibility, discipline, and risk management are becoming essential to navigate the coming months.To learn more, listen to the latest episode of the Market Flash podcast series, curated by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.

In this episode: The apparent stability of the S&P 500 is masking a far more complex reality. Since the start of the year, the index has been trapped in a relatively narrow 6,800–7,000 range, but beneath the surface dispersion has reached extreme levels: the gap between the 50 best- and 50 worst-performing stocks is the widest since 2005. Single-stock volatility is exceptionally high, while index volatility remains compressed. It is a divided market, supported by still-robust inflows and the reactivation of corporate buybacks, which are acting as a technical safety net. The epicenter of tension has been Nvidia: strong earnings were not enough to sustain the stock price, signaling that the market’s focus has shifted from growth to the sustainability of capex and returns on capital. At the same time, the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is outperforming its cap-weighted counterpart by the widest margin since 1976, highlighting a change in leadership and the gradual erosion of mega-cap concentration. On the geopolitical front, the military escalation in Iran has brought energy risk back into focus. A potential oil supply shock could reignite inflationary pressures and limit the Federal Reserve’s room to turn more accommodative. Meanwhile, the debate around artificial intelligence is intensifying, with potentially significant implications for employment, credit markets, and business model sustainability. Signs of strain in private credit suggest that the credit cycle is entering a more delicate phase. Broadening the perspective, Europe is showing improving macroeconomic momentum and a constructive earnings season, while in the United States earnings growth is widening beneath the surface, with the median stock in the Russell 3000 delivering double-digit expansion. However, slowing global liquidity and multiple normalization point to a less forgiving environment for crowded trades and extreme narratives. The key message is clear: this is not a systemic crisis scenario, but a market that has entered a structural phase of dispersion and rotation. In an environment where the gap between winners and losers is at its widest in over two decades, selectivity, balance, and disciplined risk management are becoming central to navigating the weeks ahead. To learn more, listen to the latest episode of the Market Flash podcast series, curated by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.

In this episode:Six weeks into the year, markets have already gone through an extremely intense phase, marked by rapid rotations, frequent leadership changes, and strong volatility beneath the surface.Despite the S&P 500 remaining broadly unchanged, the average stock has experienced significant moves, highlighting a clear divergence between index stability and elevated dispersion across individual names.After a strong start supported by record inflows, the market has entered an accelerated adjustment phase. The sharp unwind in gold and silver, the decline in cryptocurrencies, and rotations linked to AI and momentum themes have triggered a normalization process, mainly impacting crowded positioning and growth factors.At the same time, the escalation of investment in artificial intelligence continues to represent the dominant structural theme. While concerns are emerging around the sustainability and monetization of these investments, the rapid improvement in model capabilities and productivity gains suggest a potentially historic economic transformation.The overall environment remains complex, with high volatility at the single-stock level and an increasing overlap between technical, political, and technological drivers. As a result, 2026 is shaping up to be a year defined by selection, flexibility, and active risk management.To learn more, listen to the latest episode of the Market Flash podcast series, curated by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.

In this episode:After one of the strongest starts to the year on record, markets are showing the first signs of a pause, without undermining the underlying message: 2026 is shaping up to be the year of broader participation and the end of extreme concentration. The outperformance of small and mid caps, the improvement in market breadth, and the quiet underperformance of mega-caps point to a deep structural shift compared with recent years. The macroeconomic backdrop remains surprisingly constructive, with twelve consecutive months of positive economic surprises and Europe benefiting from the rollout of fiscal plans, opening the door to growth exceeding expectations. At the same time, commodities are back in focus, with technical and fundamental signals suggesting a potential multi-year regime change, supported by geopolitical and strategic dynamics such as the growing importance of Greenland and critical raw materials. On the risk front, attention turns to Japan: the return of inflation, rising yields, and the implications for the global carry trade represent a potential source of systemic instability. In this environment, the earnings season will be crucial in confirming the broadening of the market, against a backdrop of elevated valuations, crowded positioning, and optimistic sentiment. The key message for 2026 remains positive but selective: markets supported by strong stimulus and structural trends such as AI, M&A activity, and corporate buybacks, but with higher volatility and a growing need for flexibility and adaptability to capture opportunities while managing risks. To learn more, listen to the latest episode of the Market Flash podcast series, curated by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.

In this episode:The year opens with a strong start for markets after a challenging December: the historically positive signal from the first days of the S&P 500 reinforces the core message from the end of 2025, namely the transition into a new market phase that is less concentrated and increasingly driven by sector rotation.The political and geopolitical backdrop is already complex, as is typical of a mid-term year in Trump’s second term, with fiscal, monetary and regulatory policies seemingly moving in the same direction, supported by an unprecedented push for innovation.From a technical perspective, very constructive signals are emerging: upside breakouts across European indices, the S&P 500 approaching the 7,000 level and, above all, a continued broadening of market participation.As earnings season gets underway, attention will focus on AI-related capex and guidance, against a backdrop of exceptionally low volatility, elevated positioning and strong retail participation—factors that argue for a more cautious approach.The key message for 2026 remains constructive but selective: global equities are favored, with strong rotations, regional divergences and risks to monitor, alongside attractive opportunities particularly in Europe and Asia, in infrastructure-related themes, defense and sectors benefiting from productivity gains driven by artificial intelligence.For more insights, listen to the latest episode of the podcast hosted by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.

In this episode:We are approaching the end of an extraordinary year, while looking ahead to a 2026 that is likely to be more volatile but potentially richer in opportunities, provided portfolios are managed with a more dynamic and flexible approach.After one of the worst starts on record, with the S&P 500 down nearly 15% by early April, the market staged an exceptional rebound: eight consecutive months of gains and a recovery of around 37%, a move historically seen almost only after deep bear markets.The rally was overwhelmingly driven by artificial intelligence: roughly 80% of the upside came from just 73 stocks, with Nvidia, Broadcom and Google alone contributing more than all non-AI sectors combined, highlighting an unprecedented level of concentration.Commodities have been among the top-performing asset classes of 2025, but deep fractures are emerging between physical and paper markets, driven by geopolitics, supply concentration and strategic stockpiling by central banks.In a world where geography matters more than geology, politics more than price, and physical assets more than derivatives, these shifts represent a crucial input for strategic asset allocation heading into 2026. For more insights, listen to the latest episode of the podcast hosted by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.

In this episode:After weeks of warning signals, a sharp correction has arrived, concentrated in the most crowded trades:The Momentum factor is down 25% from its highs and Bitcoin has erased all year-to-date gains, while market liquidity dries up and investors are forced to cut exposure rapidly.Volatility is not driven by panic but by excess leverage: systematic funds were fully invested, retail investors heavily exposed through ETFs and derivatives, and asset manager cash levels at twenty-year lows.The core issue is AI: the main driver of US growth and S&P 500 performance, now under scrutiny for its dependence on credit, sustainability of cash flows and “circular financing”; Nvidia’s latest figures fuel concerns that the cycle may be entering a more mature and fragile phase.The global economy is running at different speeds: Europe remains weak with Germany stuck in structural stagnation, while in the US the strong aggregate demand masks a “K-shaped” divide between high-income consumers and households with shrinking savings.Despite tensions, earnings season is solid with 15% year-on-year growth and broader sector participation: a setup that favors healthier rotations and a market less dependent on a handful of names.In this transition phase, prudence and resilience remain essential, but the correction is creating new opportunities: volatility can become a chance to build positions in a market that is finally broader and more balanced. For more insights, listen to the latest episode of the podcast hosted by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.

In this episode:We’ve entered the final stretch of an exceptional year, but signs of change are multiplying.After six consecutive months of gains, the S&P 500 is showing its first cracks: extreme concentration in the “Magnificent 7” and recent weakness in the AI sector mark the start of a more selective phase.High valuations and early profit warnings in consumer companies reveal a polarized U.S. economy, where the strength of the wealthy coexists with the fragility of middle-income households.In the background, the U.S.–China truce highlights that the real battleground remains technology, while automation accelerates and reshapes the labor market.In an environment of rising volatility and sector rotations, it’s time to refocus on real value: prudence, stock picking, and resilient portfolios will be key in the months ahead. To learn more, listen to the new episode of the Market Flash podcast hosted by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.

In this episode:The market remains solid but increasingly selective, with rising volatility forcing several funds to cut exposure through ETFs.In the United States, signs of stress are emerging in private credit and among regional banks, while retail investors continue to dominate with “buy the dip” strategies and spectacular short squeezes.The crypto sector is experiencing a shock in altcoins, while gold is correcting after excessive leverage. The coming earnings season will be a key test for AI, with major players — including OpenAI — introducing the first “agentic” features.Meanwhile, the federal shutdown enters its fourth week, weighing on confidence. With half of S&P 500 companies set to report results, a phase begins in which stock picking becomes central again.To learn more, listen to the latest episode of the podcast series by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.

In this episode:September surprised everyone with the strongest S&P 500 performance in fifteen years: six consecutive months of gains and a full-on melt-up phase, fueled by strong volumes, record flows into leveraged ETFs and call options. Even lagging sectors like biotech and unprofitable tech have come back to life.Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown is reigniting concerns over deficits and public spending, while precious metals soar: gold has broken above $4,000, silver trades over $50, and platinum and palladium are rallying sharply. A move that reflects both euphoria and a search for safety amid abundant liquidity.Artificial intelligence remains the central theme but is entering its “phase two”: less hype, more execution. The big players are building an increasingly circular ecosystem, focusing on software integration and real-world applications, while questions grow around returns and sustainability.The Pharma sector is also back in focus after the Trump–Pfizer deal, which reshapes incentives for domestic production and adds a pragmatic twist to policy. Between liquidity, confidence in AI and evolving fiscal priorities, the coming months will reveal where real value is being created.In Europe, the Eurostoxx 50 has finally broken higher, led by pharma, luxury and mining stocks, even as France and Germany remain fragile. The auto sector faces additional headwinds — margin pressure, credit risks, and operational vulnerabilities highlighted by the Jaguar Land Rover cyberattack.IIt’s a fascinating but fragile picture: enthusiasm and caution coexist in an overstretched market. The key watchpoints ahead remain liquidity, AI and economic policy — the three pillars that will shape the next market phase.

In this episode:The MSCI World ends September up +35% from April lows, powered by the AI boom that lifted giants like Intel, Nvidia, Micron, and Alibaba. The “Magnificent 7” now account for over 40% of the S&P 500, but beneath the calm of the indices lies record volatility in individual stocks.The Fed remains in focus: after dovish signals, markets are watching closely to see whether the two rate cuts expected by year-end will materialize. Meanwhile, mortgages and cyclical sectors are showing signs of recovery.Gold shines (+43% YTD, +130% over three years), fueled by central banks and retail investors, while copper surges after the Indonesia mining accident, confirming its role as the key metal of the energy transition.The US economy still appears resilient, supported by AI investments and top-end consumer spending, though inequality continues to widen.To learn more, listen to the latest episode of the podcast series curated by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.

In this episode:The S&P 500 keeps climbing, up more than 30% in just five months, driven by the AI boom and “mechanical” flows such as buybacks and systematic funds. Oracle shocked markets with a +36% move in a single day, while AI-related companies now account for 40% of the index’s market cap.On the macro side, U.S. labor data is showing cracks, with downward payroll revisions and rising unemployment, even as the Fed continues cutting rates.In Europe, the picture remains fragile: inflation is proving stickier than expected, France faces political turmoil, and spreads are widening to multi-year highs. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions are intensifying with Russia, while China, Russia and India are strengthening ties.More than chasing the rally, the key now is to understand whether market strength rests on solid foundations or on extraordinary factors. The motto still applies: don’t fight AI and the Fed — but caution is warranted in such a one-sided consensus. For more insights, listen to the new episode of the podcast hosted by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.

In this episode:August turned out to be anything but calm, with the S&P 500 rallying 30% from its April lows. Systematic funds, retail investors, and corporate buybacks fueled “forced” buying that supported the market in a typically illiquid month, while the long-awaited correction never arrived.AI remains at the center of the economic and financial narrative. Infrastructure investments in data centers, chips, and plants accounted for 40% of U.S. GDP growth in the second quarter. Meta, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft alone spent $70 billion in just three months. Meanwhile, the theme is also expanding to China, with Alibaba announcing a new proprietary chip.On the geopolitical and economic front, political pressure on Powell is intensifying, with Trump pushing for aggressive rate cuts. At the same time, global dependence on China for rare earths is resurfacing as a long-term strategic risk. In Europe, the French crisis weighs on markets. Defensive sectors and gold are back in the spotlight. Rather than simply looking for confirmation in the trend, the focus now is on understanding what is sustainable and what is mere appearance. Markets seem to be holding up, but partly on extraordinary grounds. In the coming months, the key will be the ability to distinguish genuine strength from induced strength — and to be ready to shift gears when the context demands it.

In this episode:The Nasdaq continues to hit new all-time highs, with AI firmly established as the driving force behind the rally. Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft are leading the tech sector, while alternative assets like gold and Bitcoin have also gained around 30% year-to-date. Meanwhile, stablecoins are officially entering the traditional financial system with backing from the Trump administration.Markets are entering a critical week, with major tech earnings, central bank updates, and the August 1st deadline for trade tariff agreements all on the agenda. Trump is pushing forward on AI with executive orders aimed at unlocking investments, while the Fed is expected to hold rates steady but may revise inflation forecasts upward. Political pressure on Powell is mounting, adding to the market’s underlying tensions.In Europe, earnings are less impressive, partly due to a strong euro weighing on exporters. Heavily held stocks are underperforming, while the most shorted names are delivering positive surprises. The ECB has paused rate cuts, though markets still expect two more by year-end. Meanwhile, in the UK, household saving rates have returned to 2008 levels — a clear sign of growing economic concern.Beneath the surface of a stable market lies a phase of strategic transition. Sector rotations, renewed geopolitical risk, and the rising centrality of AI are reshaping the landscape. August may not just be a seasonal lull — it could mark the beginning of a new, more diversified and selective market equilibrium.

In this episode:Sector rotations are marking a new phase in the markets, with investors rebalancing portfolios in anticipation of possible rate cuts and fiscal benefits. After a semester dominated by momentum, the focus is now shifting towards greater diversification and broader participation.Trade tensions continue to weigh on the global outlook, with the U.S. tightening tariffs on Europe, Canada, Brazil, and even commodities. Uncertainty about the timing and real impact of trade deals is creating instability, particularly in the industrial sector.European fiscal stimulus, led by Germany, is fueling expectations of a recovery. Despite downward earnings revisions, large-scale public and private investment plans provide a solid foundation for the future—especially for companies able to inspire confidence in the coming quarters.In conclusion, the market remains caught between positive signals and underlying risks. The strength of the indices should not overshadow the complexity of the current landscape, shaped by structural shifts and evolving economic policies. For investors, this is a crucial moment to reassess their approach, with a sharper focus on the medium term and the quality of portfolio choices.

In this episode:Equity markets have surprised with their resilience, with the S&P 500 up nearly 30% from the April lows, driven by U.S. dominance in the Tech and AI sectors, which have offset narrow market breadth and elevated multiples. In contrast, oil and the dollar have delivered negative performances, with the latter down 11%—its worst half-year in 40 years.Macroeconomic dynamics are beginning to show mixed signals, with downward revisions to U.S. GDP, worsening consumer confidence, rising jobless claims, and a contracting housing market. Nevertheless, the Atlanta Fed still estimates +3.4% growth for Q2, and markets are pricing in up to three rate cuts by year-end.The geopolitical and fiscal landscape remains in focus, with the stabilizing effect of the unofficial ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, renewed defense spending commitments at the NATO summit, and Trump’s push for the “Big Beautiful Bill.” Meanwhile in Europe, Germany has launched an investment plan that will push its deficit toward 4%, while France faces political instability, impacting spreads and equity markets.We’ve entered the second half of 2025 with seemingly strong markets, yet underpinned by a fragile narrative. So far, resilience has been remarkable, but it's built on high expectations of fiscal stimulus and rate cuts, while macro signals are starting to soften. The balance is precarious. Investor positioning is more aggressive than at the April bottom, yet still far from euphoric levels. The trajectory of the coming months will depend on the strength of the real economy and central bank actions: any data point on inflation, employment, or consumption could become a volatility trigger. In this environment, risk management returns to the forefront, as the current narrative—driven by tech, stimulus, and contained geopolitics—may not hold if the macro picture deteriorates.

In this episode:The equity market rally, driven by forced repositioning and buyback programs, clashes with technical and fundamental indicators that signal the exhaustion of the risk-on phase. These include a negative risk premium on the S&P 500, rising bond yields, and the gradual disengagement of U.S. investors—also penalized by exchange rate effects.Geopolitical tensions, reignited by Israel’s attack on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, heighten the risk of escalation in the Middle East. Meanwhile, U.S.-China relations remain strained despite timid signs of dialogue, with sharply increasing tariffs having clear repercussions on trade, inflation, and internal U.S. stability.The momentum in technology sectors linked to Artificial Intelligence supports certain segments of the U.S. market, but the structural fragility of the current equilibrium—along with the less tech-oriented composition of European indices—limits the rally’s scope and accentuates regional divergences.In this scenario, dominated by geopolitical uncertainty, internal pressures, and complex economic transitions, the market shows increasing vulnerability beneath an appearance of stability. In times like these, adopting a prudent approach becomes essential—carefully diversifying and focusing on quality and medium- to long-term resilience in order to navigate volatility and paradigm shifts.

In this episode:The S&P 500 ended the month up more than 6%, marking its best May performance in over three decades. Since the April 8 lows, the index has risen 19%, largely driven by the “Magnificent Seven” and a record level of retail investor activity, which accounted for 36% of daily trading volumes.Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” narrowly passed in the House by a single vote, includes significant tax cuts funded by tariffs—though the expected revenue from those tariffs is increasingly uncertain. The bill risks triggering a surge in public debt and has already caused political turmoil, including the resignation of Elon Musk. Meanwhile, Trump doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum, aiming to counter the image of a yielding leader captured in the acronym “TACO” (“Trump Always Chickens Out”).The escalation in U.S.-China tensions—with potential tech sector restrictions and measures targeting Chinese students—adds to an increasingly fragile fiscal backdrop. Treasury yields are at their highest since 2007, the housing market is slowing, and CEO confidence has dropped to historic lows. Inflation remains under scrutiny amid a global environment of rising interest rates and growing systemic risks.The recent rally has been fueled by forced repositioning and overly optimistic expectations, but it stands on shaky ground. In a climate of rising uncertainty around tariffs, debt, and geopolitics, this may be the time to reduce risk exposure, improve portfolio quality, and take advantage of low volatility to add protection.

In this episode:Equity markets have posted an impressive rebound, driven by the temporary easing of U.S.-China tariffs, strategic agreements signed by Trump in the Middle East, and strong technical positioning, with buying flows from systematic funds and retail investors.The market is pricing in a highly optimistic scenario, with volatility at its lowest levels and compressed credit spreads. However, signs of weakness persist, such as still-elevated tariffs, slowing signals from hard data, and Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. from its AAA credit rating.High valuations and renewed bond appeal: With 30-year Treasury yields back at 5%, the comparison with the S&P 500 — trading at 22 times forward earnings — suggests a potential rotation into bonds, especially as the room for further equity gains appears to be narrowing.Despite the apparent strength of the market recovery, the current euphoria seems driven more by political narrative than by sustainable fundamentals. With volatility at historic lows and positioning already elevated, adopting a more cautious and contrarian approach may prove wise while awaiting concrete confirmation of the agreements and the actual resilience of the economy.

In this episode:April marked by record volatility: The Nasdaq 100 rebounded from a 15% drawdown in just a few weeks, while bonds, currencies, and commodities experienced exceptional swings. Trading desks benefited from this environment, whereas traditional asset managers struggled.Macro signals remain mixed: Although some indicators normalized after "Liberation Day," the overall picture remains fragile. U.S. imports from China have collapsed, perceived inflation is on the rise, and corporate earnings are being revised downward. Mega-cap tech stocks are holding up, but recession risks remain elevated.Still defensive positioning, but beware of upside risk: Systematic funds and hedge funds remain cautious, but favorable seasonality, buyback activity, and renewed interest in AI could drive a surprise upside. Meanwhile, China continues to lose momentum, while Europe shows tentative signs of improvement thanks to German fiscal stimulus and a more dovish ECB. Although the most acute phase of instability appears to be behind us, the lack of structural trade agreements and ongoing macro uncertainty call for caution: this is a time for selective investing, avoiding overcrowded trades and focusing on visibility and resilience.

In this episode:Financial markets are searching for a new balance after one of the most volatile periods in recent decades. U.S. indices have dropped over 20% from their yearly highs before a partial rebound, while the Dollar Index has hit a three-year low and gold has surged nearly 30% year-to-date, confirming its role as a safe haven asset.Tariff tensions are fueling global uncertainty: the U.S. strategy, seen as controversial and disorganized, has triggered instability and strong reactions from China, Canada, and other trade partners. The risk is a steered global economic slowdown, with potential recessionary effects and a loss of credibility for the United States.The risk of a global recession is rising, now estimated around 60%, with early signs evident in surveys and declining imports. Central banks are responding in diverging ways: the ECB is cutting rates, while the Fed remains cautious amid political pressures and a lack of clear data. In this environment dominated by geopolitical instability, high volatility, and mixed economic signals, selectivity and caution remain the most sensible strategies—while awaiting more concrete data and market stabilization.

In this episode:  The first quarter of the year closes with strong market turbulence, influenced by geopolitical events and new U.S. tariff policies. After a brief normalization, U.S. indices have resumed their decline. Europe is also down.The introduction of new tariffs by the Trump administration is already having negative effects on the real economy. The most affected sectors include automotive, food, and pharmaceuticals, with the risk of a trade war. U.S. inflation is expected to reach 3.3% over the next two years, while the trade deficit is rising sharply.The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down, with consumer and business confidence at their lowest levels in over a decade. The Atlanta Fed's GDP estimate has dropped from +2% to -2.8% in just a few weeks. Meanwhile, social unrest is growing, and Trump's popularity is declining in the polls. In Europe, fundamentals remain stronger, with fiscal stimulus providing support to the markets.The current scenario is marked by uncertainty and nervousness in the markets, with investors adopting a more cautious stance. While a technical rebound may occur in the short term, in the medium term, it will be crucial to monitor the evolution of macroeconomic data and trade tensions to understand real growth prospects.

In this episode:  The Standard & Poor’s 500 and Nasdaq-100 indices have undergone a significant correction, declining by 10% and 15%, respectively. While such movements are not unusual in market history, the speed of the downturn and the weakness of the Magnificent 7 have caught investors off guard. Rising macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty has increased the probability of a U.S. recession to 40%.The global market is showing a clear divergence: while U.S. indices are struggling, the Hang Seng is up 20%, and the DAX has outperformed the Nasdaq by 26%. Capital inflows into Europe have been significant in the early weeks of the year, driven by the depreciation of the U.S. dollar and the search for better economic prospects outside the United States.Three key events could shape markets in the coming months: the escalation of trade tensions with Trump’s tariff expansion, Germany’s tax reform, which could unlock €900 billion in investments, and efforts to redefine geopolitical balances in Ukraine. Additionally, investors are closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and its interest rate decisions.Overall, the global market is experiencing a phase of high volatility and geographical rebalancing. While Europe and China are attracting new investments, uncertainties surrounding U.S. policies and macroeconomic risks call for a cautious and selective approach to seize the best opportunities.

In this episode:The U.S. economy is showing signs of weakness, with declines in consumer confidence, retail sales, and the housing sector. Gold is outperforming, while AI stocks face corrections—Nvidia dropped 7.7% after its quarterly results, signaling increased volatility.Europe continues to outperform the U.S., supported by capital inflows and signs of economic recovery. In Germany, Merz is pushing for tax reforms and a strengthening of common defense. A rebound in the German economy could benefit mid and small caps, especially if positive developments emerge regarding the conflict in Ukraine.The U.S. is imposing new tariffs, impacting the automotive industry and other sectors. Markets are assessing whether this is a negotiating tactic or a definitive measure. The idea of a potential “Trump put” to support equities is gaining traction, while investors remain cautious about global economic prospects.Overall, markets are navigating a phase of heightened uncertainty. Europe is showing positive signals, but geopolitical tensions and U.S. weakness call for a targeted strategy to seize opportunities.

In this episode:The Eurostoxx 50 has recorded a significant rise (+13% since December), outperforming the S&P 500 thanks to a broader and more diversified rally across sectors and stocks, supported by high trading volumes. However, liquidity remains a critical issue, especially for mid and small caps.The Mag7 are underperforming due to massive investments in artificial intelligence. The Tech and AI sectors are also expanding geographically, with China and Europe increasingly involved. This could remain a dominant theme in 2025.The market is influenced by developments such as negotiations between Trump and Putin on Ukraine reconstruction, the German elections, and uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies. Attention is focused on the EU’s potential response and the sustainability of growth in a highly volatile environment.Overall, the European market is experiencing strong momentum, supported by favorable macroeconomic dynamics, expanding investments, and global trends like AI. However, geopolitical uncertainties and the risk of volatility require a cautious and selective approach to seize emerging opportunities effectively.

In this episode:After months of passive outflows in the US, investors are rediscovering the European market. The Eurostoxx50 has had one of the best starts to the year in history, with broad-based gains. Macro and systematic funds, previously short on Europe, are now moderately overweight, while single-stock volatility is creating opportunities for stock pickers.The announcement of DeepSeek in China triggered a sell-off in the AI sector, with Nvidia losing $600 billion in a single day. The market later reacted more rationally, recognizing technological progress as positive and reaffirming the strong dominance of the US. The event highlighted the importance of diversification in AI investments.Earnings season is showing resilient numbers, especially in Europe, where 55% of companies have beaten expectations. The ECB has cut interest rates, while Powell remains cautious, awaiting Trump’s policy decisions. The market is pricing in at least three more rate cuts by year-end, as inflation cools down.The start of the year confirms renewed interest in Europe, with growth prospects supported by reforms and investments. The environment remains volatile, but active investors may find opportunities by balancing risk and reward in an ever-evolving market.

In this episode:  Europe breaks out of a prolonged sideways phase, with the Eurostoxx 50 nearing historic highs and outperforming the S&P 500, marking one of the strongest starts in the past 20 years. The luxury sector is driving the rally, supported by high levels of short positions.  In the United States, the "Mag7" are now weighing down the indices, with Apple and Nvidia experiencing significant declines. However, signs of change are emerging, with the S&P 500 equal-weight index outperforming and greater market participation being observed.  Markets remain focused on inflation and interest rates. The decline in yields and early positive earnings data provide encouraging signals, but the environment remains challenging due to high public debt and pressure from rising commodity prices.  With the start of Trump’s new presidential term in the United States and evolving geopolitical dialogues, 2025 is shaping up to be a year of significant change. It will be essential to adopt a selective and dynamic approach, seizing opportunities in undervalued areas like Europe while maintaining caution in the face of volatility.  

In this episode:2024 concluded with impressive performances for the S&P 500, which gained over +60% in two years. However, leadership remained concentrated, and the equal-weight market showed significant disparity.ETFs dominated the landscape, supporting mega-cap stocks in key sectors such as Artificial Intelligence, energy transition, and demographics. Meanwhile, the dollar gained 6% against the euro, and Bitcoin attracted significant volumes, reflecting growing diversification.2025 may bring greater convergence among global markets, but volatility is set to increase. Growth will be moderate, in a context shaped by Trumponomics policies, geopolitical uncertainties, and inflation-related challenges.The new year will require a more dynamic investment approach, with particular attention to opportunities outside the United States. Factors such as reforms in Europe and stimulus measures in China could enhance risk-reward ratios. Investors will need to balance risks and opportunities in an evolving landscape.