Markets, Mystics and Mayhem

The conflict in the Middle East is keeping us in limbo. We’re waiting for things to change. The fuel shortage we were bracing for seems less likely now. But we still have to face the prices.We have a wholesale rates market pricing in three rate hikes by October. More hawkish than the most hawkish economists – but calls for rate hikes risk becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.While we wait, we look at the markets and shake our heads – desensitised feels like an apt description. US equity markets are still taking off. It's like the war isn't even happening.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Sabrina Delgado, and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Our inflation forecasts are on point, but we aren’t celebrating. CPI numbers out this week tell an uncomfortable story. Inflation at 3.1% is just above the RBNZ’s target band (again), with no big downside surprises to help ease cost pressures.It’s painful to see the cost of essentials make another jump. Kiwi households struggling with the cost-of-living didn’t need food costs (fruits, vegetables and meats especially) to go up in price AGAIN in Q1 of 2026.The Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion showed that despite pressure on prices, Kiwi businesses are struggling. Uncertainty is too high and consumers just aren’t willing (or able) to accept higher prices.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Sabrina Delgado, and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

The recent cyclone has us thinking about climate change, flood maps, and insurance risk. Flood insurance is one of those administered costs that has shot up over the years, and we don’t see it reversing, if anything it’s getting worse.Trump’s failed peace talks over the weekend have us worried about inflation and most importantly, how Kiwi businesses are meant to weather yet another punch in the guts from inflated fuel prices. We speculate over the length of the conflict and already, we are looking to 2027 for an economic recovery – it feels like this year is a bust.And inflation has us talking about demand destruction, the soft economy and labour market. We have the immediate impact on prices, that causes a spike in inflation, but we don’t think that rate hikes are part of the story for this year.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Sabrina Delgado, and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

He’s back again, our reoccurring special guest Hamish Wilkinson (aka Wiklie), Senior Dealer in Kiwibank’s Financial Markets team, joins us to talk currencies and uncertainties in global markets.The war in the Middle East is ramping up or winding down, we aren’t really sure. But we speculate about what it means for the Kiwi economy. We’re especially worried about what a diesel shortage could to our essential services and key industries.Wilkie talks us through what the currency pairings are doing (or not doing). Markets are barely responding to the crisis according to the volatility index is only just starting to creep up. Read more about it in our FX Tactical. Just like us, it seems that markets are waiting and watching the situation unfold anxiously.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Sabrina Delgado, and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’re sitting down to talk about the current events in the Middle East. (And hope that nothing we say becomes (too) dated in the 48-hours it takes us to hit publish on the episode.) The main point of discussion being the move higher we’ve seen in wholesale rates recently. We reference an upcoming speech from Governor Breman throughout the episode which we’ve now heard and reflected on. And you can find our take on the speech here. But over all the speech emphasised the need to take time to assess. So immediate hikes (as priced in wholesale rates) are highly unlikely. We also discuss a bit on last week's GDP numbers and the risks for growth ahead. It’s not a special guest episode, but you will notice a new face this week. We welcome Alexandra to the kiwi economics team & podcast. And we look forward to her sharing some labour market expertise in future episodes. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Sabrina Delgado, and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights ⁠here⁠. Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Bringing external guests onto our podcast always makes for some of the best conversations. And our chat with Dan Heyworth, owner and co-founder of Box Design and Build, was no exception. We’ve been wanting to get some more on the ground insights on all things housing and construction. And having Dan on the show was the perfect guest to unpack how the sector is really fairing, the challenges the industry is up against and some of the forces capable of shaping the future of design and construction in NZ.What began as a modular and prefabrication venture to address housing affordability quickly revealed some limitations. Dan shares how he learnt firsthand of the flawed design systems and, more importantly, the lack of consistent pipelines that makes prefab and modular solutions largely impractical in New Zealand. But there are still solutions to reduce the cost of building Kiwi homes. It’s all about simplification and standardisation. Dan walks us through how pattern books could help unlock more affordable and frictionless building across the country. What really stood out to us though was Dan’s assessment of the housing market and in turn the construction industry. We’ve been hopeful that the significant rate easing we’ve had over the past year would help bring some life back into both sectors. But it’s just not feeding through yet. As Dan puts it, the last couple of years have been quite rubbish. And things are still moving sideways. From what Dan is seeing on the ground, the recovery in construction is not one that’s coming in the next 6–9-months. But instead, much further out into 2027-2028. And that’s just the start of this jam‑packed episode. We also reminisce about the Covid‑era surge in demand for Kiwi pools, discuss the state of construction costs, and touch on New Zealand’s severe lack of investment. Plus, we also cover the ongoing loss of Kiwi construction talent overseas, and the growing role of AI in the industry.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We need to talk… about the war in the Middle East and the impacts on the global and Kiwi economy. Shipping traffic remains at a standstill at one of the world’s most strategically important oil choke points. And to no surprise, we’ve seen a massive spike in oil prices throughout the last week. With such disruptions, a near term lift in global and kiwi inflations is all but a done deal.But central banks are trained to look through near term noise. And what’s key here is that the downside risks to global and Kiwi growth majorly outweigh the upside inflation risks. We disagree with the talks of earlier rate hikes in response to such events. The weakening growth outlook simply matters more.Ultimately, we know that a rapid increase in oil prices acts like a tax on the consumer, simply straining weak household budgets further. And it’s not fair. The lift in petrol is going to hurt lower income households much more than higher income households. Meanwhile for many businesses, the conflict brings just another spanner in the works with a fresh wave of uncertainty. And under an already fragile demand environment, there will be pressure on margins as many businesses struggle to pass on higher costs. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-b...Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’ve sat down to discuss all about the RBNZ’s latest Monetary Policy Statement. February’s meeting was the first of the year, and first for new Governor Anna Breman. And we have to say she did a great job in delivering a sensible, simple message. That being: The economy is in its early stages of recovery, settings need to remain accommodative, and inflation is going back to 2%. It’s our sentiments exactly.And why are we sipping on sludgy instant coffee you may ask? Well, it was one of the findings in our latest Spending Tracker. Compared to last year, café visits were down in January. Interestingly, Kiwis opted for restaurants and bars over their local coffee spots this summer. Yet despite fewer café trips, total spending was actually up 9% on last year, meaning every visit is hitting the wallet a bit harder. So, for now, it seems we’re gritting our teeth through our homemade instant brews instead. That was just one of the findings in our latest spending tracker. The overall theme was that while spending was robust in December, we saw quite a strong pull back in consumption in January. Households are still navigating a few headwinds before consumption can return to full strength. Overall adding to the fact that indeed the economy is still in its early stages of recovery. Tune in for more insights on our take of the RBNZ and the market reaction that’s followed. Plus, more on Kiwi summer spending.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

It’s a bit of a mix and match episode this week. We start with discussing the ugly move higher across inflation expectations. Then switch to the latest stats on the PMI and PSI activity indicators. And later end up talking about one of, if not the biggest challenges facing the Kiwi economy: an aging population. An aging population certainly isn’t a new problem. We even joke on the podcast about a note Jarrod wrote 10 years ago on the topic and how he could dust it off and change the publishing date to today and it would all still be perfectly relevant. More importantly though, an aging population is certainly not a future issue either. Treasury predicts that in just 5 years’ time, close to a quarter of all tax revenue will go to pensions alone if nothing changes. That’s a huge share of funding and takes away from other areas that badly need funding too. Lifting the retirement age, increasing KiwiSaver contributions, and making them compulsory are all part of the toolkit to tackle the issue. But so is migration. It’s the fountain of youth as Jarrod first wrote ten years ago. So fittingly, we end with a chat about the latest migration figures and where to next from here. PS: You can check out Jarrod’s demographic note from early 2017, which has truly stood the test of time, here: https://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/85722/cbas-director-interest-rate-strategy-says-demography-destiny-interest-rates-immigration Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

This week we’ve delved into the latest labour market stats. A fitting topic as we farewell MJ on her last episode on the podcast and her time at Kiwibank. We also talk about what we’ve seen in our own hiring processThe headline unemployment rate has lifted from 5.3% to 5.4%. At first glance, the move doesn’t look good. But beneath the bonnet, there’s encouraging signs that the appetite for labour is improving. From the lift in employment to the uptick in the total hours worked.At the same time though, we’ve also seen an influx of people dusting off their CVs and reengaging with the jobs market. The labour force saw the strongest increase in two and a half years. And we’ve seen an uptick in participation. But while more talent is coming forward, labour demand isn’t yet strong enough to fully absorb the influx of new job seekers.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

The gold rush has gone bust. We’ve seen a savage sell off in precious metals, just after seeing some shiny record highs. Kevin Warsh becoming the next US Fed chair has removed much of the fear within markets around diminished Fed independence. Markets are still digesting the news of Trump’s pick for Fed chair. Warsh has a reputation as a monetary hawk. And despite recently supporting lower near-term rates, markets are picking that he may return to his hawkish roots. Especially because of his strong advocacy for shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet. Tune in as we discuss our thoughts on quantitative tightening, the anti-trump trade, yield curves, and the diversification out of US assets. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

New year, and we're back at it! Kicking us off - hot inflation. To a bit of dismay, Kiwi inflation ended 2025 above the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band. The lift in headline inflation is a frustration. But it’s the dirty details, from sticky domestic inflation to stubborn underlying inflation that are of most concern. There was overall more broad-based strength than we expected across prices in the December quarter. But the signs aren't there yet to suggest a shift in demand. Importantly, we still expect annual inflation to fall back within the band this year. Although naturally, amongst traders and the like, the discussion is shifting from rate cuts to rate hikes. We agree, the next move is likely to be a hike. But we think it is still a story for 2027. In other news, we're hiring! MJ is becoming part of the statistic and crossing the ditch. It's a big loss. But we're on the lookout for the next MMM co-host. So, if would like to join our tight-knit economics team, please get in touch or check out the link belowhttps://kiwibankpeople.csod.com/ux/ats/careersite/1/home/requisition/2827?c=kiwibankpeople Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’ve pulled out the crystal ball, quite literally, and gazed deep into the mists to see what 2026 has in store for the Kiwi economy!Our inner mystics have come out to play. We’ve updated our forecasts and the future is bright. We continue to forecast a robust recovery. The settings are about right. Even with a frustrating rise in retail rates. A premature move sparked by a sell off in wholesale rates following the RBNZ’s messaging misstep in November.Beyond Kiwi growth, we also discuss the outlook for housing, inflation, the labour market and migration for next year and beyond. Tune in to see what the future has in store. Additionally check out our full Outlook note here.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-b...Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

From spam in inboxes to flooded social media feeds, we’ve just been through that time of year again – Black Friday. We’ve trawled through Kiwibank card data to see just how much Kiwi spent and what they spent it on this Black Friday. And of course, by Black Friday, we really mean the whole month of November with sales kicking off well before the official calendar date This year, it looks like Kiwi favoured hammers over handbags, couches over Converse, and books over Bluetooth speakers. Kiwi are opening up their wallets, but to select stores. For now, all things housing are the winners. The festive shopping season is only just getting started. Secret Santa and stocking stuffers may see more broad-based gains across retail this Christmas. Not to mention, Boxing Day, which still reigns supreme as the biggest spending day of the year for Kiwi. For now, significantly lower interest rates are helping free up disposable incomes and boost consumption. And with 30% of mortgaged households set to roll off onto lower rates in the next six months, the outlook for retail is merry and bright. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Is this the end of the Reserve Bank’s easing cycle? We think (and hope) it is. In this episode we’re diving right into the RBNZ’s latest Monetary Policy Statement. A 2.25% cash rate looks to be the bottom. That’s good news. Policy settings are now more supportive of a recovery in 2026.After 325bps of rate cuts, the RBNZ appear more confident in the economic outlook. Positive data following the RBNZ’S decision, from confidence to consumer spending, supports as much. And against the backdrop of an upbeat hawkish RBNZ, we’ve seen a big move in markets. Wholesale rates, particularly the 2yr swap rate has ratcheted 30bps higher following last week's decision. And we’ve seen the Kiwi pop back to a 57c handle.Tune in as we break down all the details from the vote, tone, and OCR track, plus the market reaction and what it all means for the outlook.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

In this episode, we’re joined by Kiwibank Treasurer Belinda Newman to unpack the current lending landscape and the state of credit demand across New Zealand...Activity remains mixed across sectors and regions. There’s still pockets of activity in the South Island, especially as farmers benefit from a weaker currency. But there’s a clear preference to pay down debt as the share of non-performing agri loans has fallen steeply. That’s great news, but it’s limited the spillover of activity into other parts of the real economy. More generally, the current weakness in the economy is still keeping credit demand subdued.One standout trend over the past year has been households opting for shorter-dated rates to take advantage of falling interest rates. And with the Reserve Bank’s policy meeting just around the corner, we explore whether we’ve reached the bottom of the rate cycle and how markets are positioning for what’s next.The conversation doesn’t stop there. We also discuss the lingering uncertainties weighing on businesses. A big one being next year’s election. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

In part two of our Phillips Curve double-header, we’re diving into inflation—but not in the usual way. This time, we’re looking through the lens of Stats NZ’s Household Living-Costs Price Index, which breaks down inflation across 13 different demographic groups, offering a more detailed view of inflation experiences across Kiwi households. And here’s where it gets interesting, because inflation is hurting some more than others. It's unfair. Households that spend the least are now facing the highest inflation. Followed closely by retirees and beneficiaries. Meanwhile, high-spending and high-income households are seeing much smaller increases in living costs. It’s a reversal of what we saw during the peak of the cost-of-living crisis. And it all comes down to interest rates. Tune in as we unpack the numbers and what it means for Kiwi households. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Tune in for part one of a double-header episode - we're looking at both sides of the Phillips Curve. This week: the unemployment rate. There’s still a significant amount of slack in the Kiwi jobs market. The unemployment rate climbed to a nine-year high of 5.3% in the September quarter, and employment was down 0.6% on the year. Wage growth also continues to moderate, another sign of a soft market. In this episode, we unpack the latest numbers, how it changes the outlook, and what it means for policyHosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’ve taken Markets, Mystics, & Mayhem on the road!In this episode, we’re live at DSL Logistics and joined by CEO John Widdows and COO Aaron Hobbs. We had the privilege of touring their warehouses. And we got the the inside scoop on how cutting-edge robotics have transformed their Kiwi business.As per the title of the episode, the team at DSL are unlocking efficiency and boosting productivity one robot at a time. Their tabletop sortation robotic solution to packing and processing is one-of-a-kind in New Zealand. And it’s delivering real results, from lower costs to improved reliability. And it’s opening up the door to further automation. In the fast-moving world of e-commerce, the tech positions the DSL team well to respond to growing customer demands.We also dive into how the current economic cycle has impacted DSL. We know first-hand from our own Kiwibank data, that retail has faced acute pressure over the past two tough years. The cost of living has climbed, stretching household budgets. Our conversation with DSL confirms all this. But with further cuts to interest rates and the festive season around the corner, the outlook for retail is optimistic.It doesn’t end there though. We also chat through the impact of tariffs (or lack thereof), regional differences, and even reminisce on the scramble to secure warehousing space during Covid. It’s a jam-packed episode you don’t want to miss! Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Inflation has climbed to the top end of the RBNZ’s target band. But there is no need for panic. A reacceleration in imported inflation as well as sticky administered costs are driving the move higher. But the more interest rate sensitive components of CPI, like rents and construction costs, remain soft. We continue to expect inflation to return towards the RBNZ’s 2% mid-point in early 2026The rising costs across essentials is however biting into wallets and having an impact on consumption. Our latest look at Kiwibank spending data shows that households are being forced to prioritise costlier essential goods and services over durables and discretionary items. The pass through of lower interest rates should in time help free up more disposable incomes to be spent elsewhere. Adding to this jam-packed episode, we also touch on the RBNZ’s recent announcement around relaxing LVR restrictions. That should help spur more activity into the housing market into 2026. And with that, kick the wealth effect into effect. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

This week, Elliot Smith, Kiwibank’s Chief Customer Officer – Business, joins us to unpack the mood across Kiwi businesses. We're diving into the impact of the RBNZ’s circuit-breaking 50bps rate cut. As Elliot puts it, the move feels like the RBNZ is finally hearing the struggles of Kiwi businesses. But while there’s been a sense of relief, caution still lingers. Businesses are starting to feel like it’s time to take action, but hesitancy remains. Amid tough operating and financial conditions, the inaction around expansion decisions have been an ongoing theme. However, with monetary policy finally at stimulatory settings, the environment is becoming more conducive to growth. Heading into the new year, conditions are ripening for momentum to build. We also discuss the performance of the business bank and the current lending landscape. It’s more competitive than when Elliot last joined us, but Kiwibank continues to play an outsized role. Plus, Elliot sheds light on Kiwibank’s startup+ pilot programme with Ministry of Awesome, designed to support innovative businesses that are harder to collateralize. It’s all about opening doors, backing good ideas, and building strong businesses that aren’t tied to the property cycle.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’re celebrating our 50th episode with special guest Hamish Wilkinson, Senior Dealer in Kiwibank’s Financial Markets team, to unpack our latest FX Tactical. After some time of tariff headlines driving currencies, interest rate differentials are now back at wheel driving currency movements. And with the RBNZ clearly needing to do more relative to other central banks, the Kiwi dollar has come under significant downwards pressure. So, we’re diving into the performance and outlook for the Kiwi dollar against the Greenback, Aussie dollar, Sterling, Euro and Yen. And as always, we couldn’t resist throwing Wilkie a curveball currency pair. This time, it felt only fitting to ask about the Krona (Sweden’s currency) given the appointment of Dr Anna Breman as the incoming RBNZ Governor. We also take some time to compare the Swedish and New Zealand economy.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’ve changed our call. We now expect a 50bps cut in October, followed by a 25bps cut in November. The cash rate should end the year at 2.25%. Why? because it has become crystal clear that the Kiwi economy is not recovering. So, in the wise words of Nike, “Just do it” A year on from the deep and destructive recession we were in in 2024, the Kiwi economy has slammed back into reverse. The GDP numbers for the June quarter were far worse than anyone had expected and proved once again that the RBNZ has not yet delivered the appropriate monetary policy setting. Weakness remains broad based with 10 out of the 16 industries in decline. And over the year the economy has shrunk a further 0.6%. It’s simply not what you’d expect a year after the severe recession. We should be recovering by now. But we're not. And the weakness demands more rate relief.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’re back with part two of our special episode featuring Wildlife Economist and Massey University lecturer, Brendan Moyle. And this time we’re delving into Brendan’s fascinating research in wildlife economics, exploring how economics can be applied to the conservation of endangered species. As well as unpacking the economic drivers in wildlife black markets. Brendan talks us through real-world examples involving rhinos and crocodiles to show how market-based approaches can support sustainable protection. We also explore how the fall in interest rates and a crashing equity market during the 2008 GFC led to a surge in unscrupulous investment in elephant ivory—driving up poaching levels. Across all three cases, one economic principle stands out: incentives matter. If you missed part one, be sure to check out last week’s episode, “The economics of climate change”, where we explored how the climate landscape has evolved post-COVID, the global and national challenges we face, and the policy solutions available to New Zealand today. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

This week we’re joined by a very special guest: Brendan Moyle, an environmental and wildlife economist (and lecturer) from Massey University, to delve deep into the complexities of climate change. Brendan brings a wealth of expertise, and we’re tapping into his insights on how the climate landscape has evolved post-COVID. Unfortunately, recent developments, particularly those stemming from the US and the Trump administration are poised to exacerbate the crisis, painting an increasingly grim pictureWith electricity generation being a major contributor to global emissions, we spend a significant portion of the episode discussing energy. New Zealand is already ahead of the curve when it comes to renewable energy thanks to our abundance of hydro, wind, and geothermal resources. However, Brendan highlights that even with our strong renewables’ foundation, maintaining and expanding this advantage comes with its own set of challenges. We also touch on the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events in New Zealand. Discussions around insurance retreat and the reclassification of flood-prone zones are becoming more pressing. And the ripple effects of what this will mean for some houses and mortgages remains front of mind. Impacts like these underscore a key theme of this week’s episode that action is needed. Both in mitigation and adaptation. Brendan shares his insights on some of the most effective strategies and solutions that can be implemented to improve economic and environmental outcomes.This is the first of a two-part episode. Next week, we’ll delve into Brendan’s fascinating research in wildlife economics, exploring how economics can be applied to the conservation of endangered species. So, if you’re curious about crocodiles, elephants, rhinos, and the economics behind protecting them, be sure to tune in next week!Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Adrian Lodge – Senior Financial Markets Dealer – is back on the pod (in familiar attire), and a lot has happened since last September. Back then, we were heading into the US election, central banks were at the start of the easing cycle, and the Kiwi dollar was climbing towards 64c. Today, tariffs dominate the headlines and uncertainty remains elevated.In all that, the Kiwi dollar has lost flight. But it’s a double-edged sword. A lower Kiwi is good news for exporters, not so much for importers. Adrian shares all the anecdotes he's hearing from his clients across the importer and exporter space, and how they're positioning themselves ahead of the coming summer months and into 2026Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

After two years of forecasting, praying and rain dancing for a 2.5% cash rate, the RBNZ finally signalled such a move at their August MPS. And they did so with plenty of conviction. The OCR track was massively lowered, now signalling an 80% chance of a move to 2.5%. This is great news for Kiwi households and businesses. Interest rates are moving from providing relief to generating stimulus. Just what the economy needs. So, join us while we unpack the RBNZ’s latest bold & brilliant move. And of course, how financial markets have reacted. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

The Kiwi exodus continues. Net migration flows are dropping fast, and departures from Aotearoa are nearing all-time highs. It’s a clear sign of the times. Our economy’s certainly feeling a bit rough around the edges, especially when stacked up against our mates across the ditch. It’s no surprise we’re seeing a majority of Kiwi flock over to Australia. So, in this episode we thought to stack up the two economies side by side. The beautiful, lush Aotearoa vs the brownish vegemite Australia. We’re comparing activity, labour markets, inflation, and of course, central banks. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’re delving into the details of the latest labour market report. Unemployment has lifted to a five-year high. And it would have been higher if not for the steeper-than-expected slide in the participation rate. Meanwhile, details under the headline rate portray an even weaker reality. Combined with weak underlying price pressures and the fact that inflation expectations have remained comfortably within the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band, all the data to date supports, if not demands, further rate relief. We should see a 25bps cut next week to 3%. And continue to call for an eventual move to 2.5%.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

It’s a market-focused episode this week because, after a couple of—dare we say—boring weeks of watching markets, we’re finally seeing some big moves. Why? Because markets are coming around to what we’ve been saying for quite some time now: that tariffs will have an impact on demand and weaken global growth. We’re seeing that start to play out now. And markets are factoring it in. The market moves follow a week of woefully weak data. No matter where you looked, whether it was US payrolls, which incredibly disappointed, or Aussie’s soft inflation report, the impacts of tariffs and their accompanying uncertainty are becoming notable. Central banks are coming around to seeing the tariffs shock for what they are: a negative demand shock which will require lower interest rates. The same message applies here at home. And markets have responded to that. So, tune in as we cover all the latest moves in equities, rates and currency. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

This has to be our favourite episode yet. Because we're talking about our favourite report - the Regional. From the top of the North Island to the bottom of the South Island, and everywhere in between, we’ve just wrapped up our annual deep dive into economic performance across the country. So how does your region stack up?For the most part, regions are performing better than last year. But they’re still far from their best. The average score across the motu lifted from a 3 out of 10 to 4. Meanwhile the South Island continues to outperform the North. Otago and Southland take the crown for best performance across the country. All while Wellington remained the weakest performer. Although to give them some credit, their score did improve from last year.Our look into the regions is extensive. So, alongside this week’s episode, be sure to also check out the full report here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/the-regional-divide-widens-as-everything-just-gets-better-the-further-you-go-south/It’s packed with even more regional insights, including some amazing anecdotes from our business bankers on the ground. Plus of course, more pretty charts. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Inflation accelerated over the June quarter. But it wasn’t as bad as many had feared. And context is key. A strengthening in imported inflation is driving headline higher. But domestic price pressures, on balance, continue to cool. It’s all about what’s really going on under the hood of the headline number. So, tune in as we break down the latest Kiwi inflation report. From what’s specifically driving the rise and where price pressures are coming off. Spoiler, it's the Interest rate-sensitive parts of the consumer basket that are notably weak. And that matters for the outlook on monetary policy. With excess capacity still sloshing around the economy, domestic inflation is set to continue easing. And taken together, this latest print adds weight to our case for more rate relief.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

After six straight meetings delivering rate cuts, the RBNZ kept the cash rate unchanged at their July meeting. So, what does it all mean? Is this the end of the cutting cycle? Or is it really just a pause? And why pause now? What will influence the August decision?... We’re diving into all the questions you might have following last week’s decision. Policymakers around the globe are still grappling with trade tariffs and the inflationary implications. High uncertainty has forced central banks, from Wellington to Washington, into a wait and see mode. But the RBNZ's bias, rightly remains tilted toward further easing. We continue to advocate for a stimulatory (helpful) cash rate of 2.5%. From our stalled housing market recovery, to plummeting net migration and contracting manufacturing activity, signs of weakness are clear. Weakness, which is in itself, disinflationary. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Greg Byrne, General Manager of Commercial Banking, joins us on this week’s episode to share insights into how Kiwi businesses are faring in the current climate. Optimism for the months ahead continues to grow, but the recession scars are still fresh. Cost pressures have eased but remain elevated. All the while firms' pricing power has diminished. It’s a combination that continues to squeeze and hurt profitability. As Greg points out, the focus for many businesses is squarely on revenue. It’s clear that a sustained recovery in demand has yet to be seen. And it’s why we still advocate for more rate relief. We also dive into business appetite towards investment & hiring, including the impacts of the Government’s ‘Investment Boost‘ scheme so far. Plus we cover the divergences in activity across sectors and regions.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Our Financial Markets Trader, Mieneke Perniskie, joins us on this week’s episode to dive into the world of currency. Recent events and headlines suggest the Kiwi should be in the 50s. Yet here we are with the bird close to breaching 61c. Broader themes are in play. Some are calling it Judgement Day for the US dollar. We discuss why that view is a tad bit dramatic.But it’s not all about the Kiwi dollar (NZDUSD). We also go through how the Kiwi is holding up against the Aussie dollar, Sterling, Euro and Yen.You can read our latest FX Tactical here: “Vexing volatility, unusual uncertainty, & polarising protectionism”Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’re seeing a short-term spike in inflation right now. Food prices have reaccelerated, household energy costs are climbing, and rising tensions in the Middle East are pushing around global oil prices . These days it feels like there is cost pressure after cost pressure hitting households and businesses. All while growth is rather lacklustre. The word “stagflation” has been circulating both here at home and in the US. But we’re nowhere near that yet. So, we’re sitting down and talking about the recent lift in inflation and how Central Banks, like the Reserve Bank, should look through these short-term inflation spikes. After all, monetary policy is set for the medium term. And in the medium term, the real risk is that inflation undershoots the RBNZ 2% mid-point. Plus, Jarrod talks about his favourite (imaginary) tattoo: The Phillips Curve. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’ve just refreshed our forecasts for the Kiwi economy.  And by no surprises, heightened global uncertainty and a likely slowdown in global trade has seen us downgrade our profile for Kiwi growth. So what does that mean for parts of the economy? We unpack our latest forecasts for the housing market, interest rates, inflation, and the labour market. You may be thinking how do you even forecast in times like these? We go through the how, including delving into two alternative paths the Kiwi economy could take. And we explain why forecasting is a very helpful tool precisely in times like these.Check out our full outlook note here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/weve-updated-our-forecasts-as-we-think-our-way-through-tumultuous-times/Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

It’s a US special this week. We know. These days most of our episodes already touch on some aspect of what’s going on over in the States, but this week we’re looking at some of the latest high frequency data out of the US to see how things are holding up amid tariff turmoil and friendship fallouts.We’ve seen a front loading of activity in anticipation of tariffs. And we may now be seeing the start of the unwind. After a surge in imports earlier this year, April saw the sharpest drop in U.S. imports on record. Meanwhile, sentiment data is sliding too. US PMIs continue to track further into contraction. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Hawkish here, dovish there. There was a bit of everything in the Reserve Bank's latest Monetary Policy Statement. And we’re delving into all the details...Now, if you just read the statement, the RBNZ’s easing bias was strengthened.  The economic forecasts were lowered, and another 25bp rate cut was inserted into the OCR track. But if you listened to the press conference or noted the dissenting 5-1 vote, the RBNZ’s top brass were crystal clear in their clouded uncertainty. So how do we make sense of it? Where to from here? And, how have markets responded? We’re cover it all. The key takeaway: more rate cuts are coming. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Ever wondered what it’s like in the day of a life as an economist on a major data release day? Well, consider this week's episode your backstage pass to Budget 2025. We’re talking through our experience at the Budget lock up in Banquet Hall. Everything from our rapid analysis, to even our (sad) lunch experience. We break down Treasury's new forecasts and delve into some of the new policies announced. Set against a challenging backdrop, Budget 2025 revealed an inevitable downgrade to the economic and fiscal outlook. A return to surplus is still achieved, but you’ll need a magnifying glass to see it. And the weaker reality, simply means more debt and issuance. Most importantly though, from our view, "the growth" budget still doesn't offer a lot in the way of growth. And reinforces the need for the RBNZ to deliver more stimulus to help the economy out of recession. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

This is an episode you don’t want to miss! We’re joined by Steve Bonnici, Managing Director of Urgent Couriers, for some great insights on the courier and logistics industry and what it tells us about the broader economy. As Steve aptly puts it, rapid delivery services serve as a bellwether for the economy. When the market shifts, they’re the first to experience it. So, what’s the industry signalling for the Kiwi economy? According to Steve and his team, greenshoots are not in sight. Enquiries are low and clients are still price-sensitive. Not quite the signs of a recovering economy. On the ground (literally) anecdotes like these from Urgent Couriers reinforce our position: The Kiwi economy demands more rate relief. We also cover everything from sustainability in the logistics field to the future of logistics amid major technological advancements. Think self-driving trucks, drones, and other emerging technologies. The question is, how are our roads holding up? Can they take us to the future? Tune in for an insightful conversation with Steve Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

This week we’re delving into the details of the latest Kiwi labour market report. The scars of the recession we’ve been through are still raw with every indicator in the unemployment report pointing to weakness. And youth are bearing the brunt of it. We break down the numbers and explore how they’re feeding into the broader inflation outlook. Plus, what it all means for monetary policy. Spoiler: it strengthens the case for more rate relief. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

In this week’s episode we’re joined by David Moore, Kiwibank's Head of Corporate and Wholesale Credit, to discuss the ongoing uncertain environment. As economists we love to talk through scenarios. We’re always considering the upside and downside risks when forming our view. David however tends to pitch his tent in camp downside...Tune in as we cover the latest on business appetite, credit dynamics, and the evolving risk landscape. Credit availability has and continues to improve. But demand for credit remains subdued with businesses still holding back on borrowing. Amid tariff uncertainty and a potential global slowdown, investment and expansion decisions have been shelved. Plus, we cover the rise in liquidations and receiverships which recently hit a 10-year high.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’re back after a week off, and we’re still sitting, waiting, wishing for tariff de-escalation. Trade talks remain underway between several countries and the US. But any announcements are yet to be seen. And no one knows if the US trade talks with China have started. Trump says they have. China says they haven’t. We’re stuck in limbo. Time is of the essence, and the clock is ticking. The longer negotiations take, the longer the global economy remains in a heightened sense of insecurity. And the greater the damage to global growth. The IMF has already started slashing their forecasts for global growth. Talk is cheap, so far, but the economic costs are already mounting.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

The US’s reciprocal tariffs have been put on ice for 90 days. Several countries are coming to the negotiating table. It’s still incredibly difficult to say with any certainty what will result. But we take a crack at mapping three possible paths that the global economy could take from here. We unpack what each scenario could mean for the state of our economy, including the implications for central banks, interest rates, and broader global economic growth. Plus, we take a closer look at how markets have reacted so far. From a spike in volatility to a run-up in gold and an unorthodox flee from US assets, we dive into all the madness.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’re delving into the aftershock of Trump’s Obliteration, sorry Liberation, Day. Markets are in mayhem with HUGE drops across equities, commodity currencies and interest rates. The so-called reciprocal tariffs were worse than feared, especially for emerging Asia. The focus is now on retaliatory action. And China is already striking back. Things have only just begun. We were joined by Kiwibank Treasurer, Belinda Newman, to help us unpack all the moves in markets. The world as we know it is changing with a hundred years of reducing tariffs, and globalisation now reversing. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Our Financial Markets Trader Mieneke Perniskie joins us on this week’s episode to talk all about currency. Our call on the Kiwi hitting 55c played out largely as we had thought. And we’re now looking to an eventual climb to 60c by year end. The here and now though sees the NZD rangebound at current levels with growing global downside risks. But it’s not all about the Kiwi dollar (NZDUSD). We also go through how the Kiwi is holding up against the Aussie dollar, Sterling, Euro and Yen. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We know, we know! Why are we still talking about 2024? Well, we promise this is the last time (maybe). We recently received the latest economic report card. And given it shows us crawling out of recession, we figured it was worth covering the first step in the Kiwi economy’s recovery. We take a closer look at the industries driving growth, as well as those that are still facing challenges. But let's not dwell on almost 3month old data. We're looking ahead. Our attention is now on more recent, higher-frequency data which look promising for a turnaround in activity this year. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

This week’s episode is all about Kiwi trade. Specifically, looking at the positive movement we saw in our terms of trade at the end of last year. Higher meat and dairy export prices, strong production, and a favourable NZ dollar should provide a meaningful boost to export earnings and incomes for our farmers and rural regions. Looking to our export services, tourism levels have also edged their way closer to pre-covid levels. We also discuss how the lower Kiwi dollar is adding additional support for our Kiwi exports. And of course, we couldn’t go without touching on the potential headwinds created by looming Trump trade policies. Still, beyond all the noise, one crucial lesson stands out: the need to diversify our trade.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

The same uncertainty and volatility from Trump 2.0 that is causing big swings in wholesale rates is also wreaking havoc across equities. We were very fortunate to have Mike Taylor, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Pie Funds, join us on a special bonus episode to discuss his view on equity markets. And strategies to navigate investing in these volatile times. It's a jam-packed episode. We cover everything from where we see equities ending the year, to discussions on cryptocurrency and gold. Plus, a conversation on kiwi superannuation. This is one to watch. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.