MarketWatch Real Estate Round-up

The housing slump has worsened into a "crisis," says Jerry Howard, the president and CEO of the National Association of Homebuilders, and "if Congress doesn't do anything, the end is not in sight." Builders are calling on Congress to target home prices in the next stimulus package, and Howard suggests a program like a mid-70s tax credit. "It worked very well, and led the country out of what was a six-quarter recession," he says.

There is more bad news from the home front as "we're still looking at foreclosure activity on the increase." Rick Sharga, at RealtyTrac says their most recent survey finds that "nearly 280-thousand US households in the month of October received some sort of foreclosure notice." According to Sharga, "that's up five percent from September and up 25 percent from a year ago." Sharga tells Steve Potisk, "this marks 34 consecutive months where we've seen a year over year increase" in foreclosure rates.

If you bought your home at the peak of the market in the last couple of years, you could be down "anywhere from five to, in areas of California, 30 or 40 percent off the value of your home." So says Amy Bohutinsky, the V-P for communications at Zillow.com. She tells Steve Potisk that has many people in "negative equity right now," or owing more on the mortgage than the house is worth. That means a third of Americans who sold their home in the past year lost money, according to a Zillow survey. The downward trend is expected to continue. Bohutinsky says of the 163 metro areas they surveyed, "only a handful of markets showed appreciation year over year."

"We're still seeing the highest rates of foreclosure activity in the same states." So says Rick Sharga, a senior vice president at RealtyTrac. His group found foreclosure rates were up 71 percent in the third quarter when compared with a year ago. The top six states account for 60 percent of third quarter foreclosure activity; they are California, Florida, Arizona, Ohio, Michigan and Nevada.

"The days of easy credit are behind us. The days of really low mortgage rates may be behind us," too. But Steve Kerch, MarketWatch.com's real estate editor, tells Steve Potisk this week's spike higher in average rates may have "been one bad week given all that we've seen in financial markets." Kerch adds that if rates remain in the current range, topping near 6 1/2 percent, that's not bad.

Greg McBride, senior financial analyst with Bankrate.com, tells Nancy Lyons that savers are "getting thrown further under the bus." McBride says if you have a mortgage pegged to the treasury, it'll go down, but LIBOR-pegged mortgages may see a nasty increase.

"The real estate industry is rooting heavily for some type of bailout plan." Spencer Rascoff, Zillow.com's CFO says the reason is the expectation that a plan would "allow the federal government to buy these huge amounts of bad loans off of the balance sheets of investment banks and commercial banks." But Rascoff also tells Steve Potisk no bailout will be a panacea for housing since "there is just so much inventory on the market."

Economic forecasting firm Global Insight is in the process of revising its forecast for the U.S. and the news is dismal. The economy appears headed for a recession that could run an entire year. And Global Insight's Patrick Newport tells John Wordock it may not matter what Washington does with the Wall Street bailout. We're still headed for troubled waters.

The mortgage market meltdown was just a part of the reason Wall Street is in the tank. So says Peter Morici, an economist and business professor at the University of Maryland. He tells Steve Potisk there is plenty of blame to go around for this crisis.

Is the housing market frozen for the time being? Existing home sales dipped 2% in August and inventories fell 7%. But median home prices have dropped 9.5% in the last year. And MarketWatch real estate editor Steve Kerch thinks the price of your home may have to fall even more. He tells John Wordock the autumn housing market may be frozen until Congress resolves the Wall Street rescue plan issue. Kerch also offers some tips for selling your home in this climate.

Housing economist Thomas Lawler says it's "absolutely logical" for builders to cut the pace of building due to the glut of empty homes. He predicts it'll take between 3-6 months for the inventory to be sold, after that the recovery can begin.

Confidence among home builders actually improved this month. So finds the latest survey from the National Association of Home Builders, with all four regions of the country showing improvement. Still, there's a long ways to go before we're on firm footing. Calling this the "sharpest, deepest" contraction since the 1930s, David Seiders, the chief economist at the trade group, still thinks we will have to wait until next year for a housing recovery. He talks with John Wordock.

Ouch! "August spiked to the highest levels of foreclosure activity we've ever tracked since we began the survey back in January of 05," says RealtyTrac's Rick Sharga. He tells Steve Potisk there were almost 304,000 households that received a foreclosure notice last month. That's up 12% since the previous month and 27% higher since last year.

Thinking of refinancing? You should. The typical 30-year mortgage rate is now 5.93%. How much lower could rates go this fall? MarketWatch reporter Amy Hoak talks with John Wordock.

As we head into the fall, "home sales are going to be rather flat." That's how Celia Chen, the director of housing economics at Moody's Economy.com, interprets the July Pending Home Sales report. She tells Steve Potisk, "given the trends of the last 5 or 6 months," the index suggests sales that are bouncing along the bottom.

MarketWatch financial news editor, Greg Morcroft, tells Nancy Lyons government intervention with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will make it easier for well-qualified applicants to win mortgage approval. But he says stockholders are out of luck.

Thinking of buying a condo that's in foreclosure? Don't think you're going to get rich quick. "The profits are not there like they were the past couple of years," says Nick Jekogian, CEO of Signature Community, a New York real estate development firm. "I don't think anybody's saying it's going to be a year or two years down the road. It's probably more of a 5 or 10 year cycle. And at that point there's potential for capital gain." Jekogian's advice if you're thinking of buying a distressed condo? "Really spend a lot of time understanding the numbers and what you're getting into." Jekogian talks with John Wordock.

"If you're talking about a bottom in sales, it could happen late this year or early next year," says Gary Thayer, a senior economist at Wachovia. "If you're talking about a bottom in pricing that may take a little bit longer to hit." Thayer tells John Wordock he's watching first for sales to bottom. "We're not there yet. But we're getting some encouraging signs."

Existing home sales rose last month partly driven by "distressed sales" on foreclosed properties. So says housing analyst Dean Baker at the Center for Economic and Policy Research. He also tells John Wordock inventories have spiked because investors and speculators are now trying to dump their condos.

Trying to sell your home in this tough climate? Some small cosmetic changes can make a big difference when it comes to wooing potential buyers. So says MarketWatch columnist Marshall Loeb. He talks with John Wordock.