Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has lifted the cash rate by 25 basis points at its latest meeting, signalling the start of a more prolonged tightening cycle. While many economists believe the RBA will need only two more rate hikes, Michael Knox argues that this view does not account for structural inflation pressures already building within the Australian economy.His modelling and economic analysis suggest the real requirement is at least four rate hikes before inflation begins to ease.

In this episode, Michael Knox and Stephen Austin from the ABC unpack the economic challenges Australia faces in 2025. With electricity subsidies ending and energy supply constraints persisting, households are bracing for higher power bills and rising inflation. Here’s what’s on the horizon:

Beginning on the 1st of October 2025, the US government began its current Federal government shutdown.The shutdown occurred because Democratic Party Senators refused to support a Continuing Resolution to provide funding for the US government. At the time of writing, Republican Senators have now put up Continuing Resolutions for funding to the Senate 11 times, and Democrat Senators have refused to support them 11 times.

On 7 July the AFR published a list of 37 Economists who had answered a poll on when the RBA would next cut rates. 32 of them thought that the RBA would cut on 8 July. Only 5 of them did not believe the RBA would cut on 8 July. I was one of them. The RBA did not cut.

Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox says that for the RBA to get inflation down to 2.5%, unemployment must rise above 4.5% in Australia.Check out more from Morgans:Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.auCheck out our latest articles: https://morgans.com.au/insightsOn Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAUOn Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.AustraliaOn Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox says that though the FED are easing quantitative tightening, US consumer demand is still too healthy to allow rate cuts.Check out more from Morgans:Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.auCheck out our latest articles: https://morgans.com.au/insightsOn Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAUOn Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.AustraliaOn Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Our Model of US GDP says steady growth just below trend. Just where the Fed needs it to keep US Inflation falling.Check out more from Morgans:Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.auCheck out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/BlogOn Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAUOn Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.AustraliaOn Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox gives an update on the Fed Funds and the RBA Cash Rate. Check out more from Morgans:Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.auCheck out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/BlogOn Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAUOn Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.AustraliaOn Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Strong corporate profits drive corporate yields lower and stock prices higher.Check out more from Morgans:Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.auCheck out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/BlogOn Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAUOn Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.AustraliaOn Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Inflation tells us why cash rates are where they are, and unemployment tells us where cash rates will be.Check out more from Morgans:Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.auCheck out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/BlogOn Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAUOn Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.AustraliaOn Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox uses the Chicago Fed National Activity Indicator to model the US economy and explain why there is no incoming US Recession. Check out more from Morgans:Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.auCheck out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/BlogOn Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAUOn Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.AustraliaOn Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Following the Federal Reserve's latest two-day monetary policy meeting, Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox says, "yes the FED rates will fall, but only so far."Check out more from Morgans:Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.auCheck out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/BlogOn Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAUOn Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.AustraliaOn Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Following the RBA's recent decision to hold interest rates, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock said, "where we are now is where we need to be." Chief Economist Michael Knox gives his comments on this saying that the RBA are giving us stability for the near future.Check out more from Morgans:Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.auCheck out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/BlogOn Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAUOn Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.AustraliaOn Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Following the latest meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox explains that the RBA minutes don’t say rate cuts are a shoo in at all.Check out more from Morgans:Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.auCheck out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/BlogOn Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAUOn Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.AustraliaOn Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox explains how the different dates of international financial years generate seasonal variation in the Australian and US stock markets.Check out more from Morgans:Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.auCheck out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/BlogOn Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAUOn Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.AustraliaOn Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Michael explains how a boom in US corporate liquidity is driving US and Australian stock markets upwards.Check out more from Morgans:Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.auCheck out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/BlogOn Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAUOn Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.AustraliaOn Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Michael Knox discusses the February 2024 RBA statement, commenting on monetary policy. Check out more from Morgans:Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.auCheck out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/BlogOn Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAUOn Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.AustraliaOn Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox says that Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year will be shaded by a major program of quantitative tightening.Check out more from Morgans:Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.auCheck out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/BlogOn Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAUOn Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.AustraliaOn Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox walks us through his model for the US Economy using the Chicago National Activity Indicator, which explains 78% of YoY growth in US GDP.Check out more from Morgans:Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.auCheck out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/BlogOn Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAUOn Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.AustraliaOn Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox answers eight questions from the media on his current economic outlook, including the Australian Cash Rate.Check out more from Morgans:Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.auCheck out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/BlogOn Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAUOn Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.AustraliaOn Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

The Summary of Economic Projections say that rates will fall until 2027.Check out more from Morgans:Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.auCheck out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/BlogOn Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAUOn Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.AustraliaOn Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox's outlook for the world economy in 2024 is that growth will slow; inflation will fall; and money will flow into Stock Markets.Check out more from Morgans:Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.auCheck out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/BlogOn Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAUOn Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.AustraliaOn Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox says that core Australian CPI numbers still suggests another RBA rate hike. However, we may not see rates rise until February 2024.Check out more from Morgans:Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.auCheck out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/BlogOn Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAUOn Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.AustraliaOn Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Is the US Economy entering Deflation? Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox responds to that question and says that, the level of the US Bond is now dependent on the German Bond.Check out more from Morgans:Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.auCheck out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/BlogOn Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAUOn Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.AustraliaOn Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Big budget deficits drive even bigger US debt.Check out more from Morgans:Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.auCheck out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/BlogOn Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAUOn Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.AustraliaOn Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Chief Economist Michael Knox comments on Australian monetary policy, following the latest interest rate hike by the RBA.Check out more from Morgans:Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.auCheck out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/BlogOn Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAUOn Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.AustraliaOn Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist gives his best value bets for the Melbourne Cup 2023. Our recommendation this year is for an each-way bet on horse no 6, Soulcombe. Remember our recommendation is for the best value bet rather than the highest probability of winning. Gamble responsibly.Check out more from Morgans:Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.auCheck out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/BlogOn Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAUOn Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.AustraliaOn Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Quantitative Tightening is more powerful than we think.Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

With Brent Oil Prices on the rise, Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox says Europeans will find winter warmth more expensive than anticipated.Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Morgans Chief economist Michael Knox explains how the Saudis "'manage up'' the oil price.Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox says that big swings in the US budget deficit are driving big swings in commodities.Check out more from Morgans:Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/BlogOn Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAUOn Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.AustraliaOn Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Morgans Chief Economist Michal Knox explains that faster than expected US growth is driving US bond yields higher.Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

IEA numbers suggest a tight market for oil.Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox thinks the RBA has paused rate hikes to allow time for Michelle Bullock to calmly take up the role of Governor from Philip Lowe.Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

When will the FED start cutting interest rates? Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox says there are still more hikes to come, following a FED rate hike of 25 points in July, as expected. Another 25-point hike is expected in September.Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

People who hoped for a US soft landing should be careful what they wish for.Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox gives us a debrief from the Economics Society of Australia's business lunch; where the RBA governor Philip Lowe announced changes following the RBA review, which creates "A Federal Reserve With Australian Characteristics.”Check out more from Morgans:Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.auCheck out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/BlogOn Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAUOn Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.AustraliaOn Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Our model, based on the International Energy Agency's (IEA) estimates, suggests an oil price of $US113 per barrel in Q2 2024.Check out more from Morgans:Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.auCheck out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/BlogOn Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAUOn Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.AustraliaOn Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

The summary of economic projections for June suggests there will be two more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. One in July and another in September. Morgans Chief Economist discusses when we may see a reduction in interest rates.Check out more from Morgans:Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.auCheck out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/BlogOn Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAUOn Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.AustraliaOn Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

It's Labor Governments that tend to finish tightening with the Cash Rate above the Fed funds Rate.Check out more from Morgans:Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.auCheck out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/BlogOn Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAUOn Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.AustraliaOn Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox says that stubborn inflation means one to two more rate hikes may still be required before the job is done by the Federal Reserve.Check out more from Morgans:Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates world oil demand 2 million barrels a day higher than supply in the second half of 2023.Check out more from Morgans:Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox discussed the US economy and the possibility of shutdown by the US Government and what effect that will have for the next several quarters.Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Last night the Treasurer, the Hon. Dr. Jim Chalmers MP, handed down the Federal Budget for 2023/24.Our experienced analysts, Terri Bradford, Andrew Tang and Michael Knox have considered the implications from multiple perspectives and have provided insights on what this will mean for you.Read their full articles here: https://www.morgans.com.au/federal-budget-2023Timestamps:00:08 - Economic Strategy (Michael Knox)05:20 - Equity Strategy (Andrew Tang)08:54 - Wealth Management (Terri Bradford)Check out more from Morgans:Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

The International Energy Agency in its April Oil Report tells us why the oil price must rise in the second half of 2023.Check out more from Morgans:Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

A consensus of the best US forecasters is that after a fall in output in Q2 2023, US GDP will likely rebound to slow but consistent growth.Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox believes that after a pause, RBA rates should still climb toward 4.85%.Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

New FED facility backs small banks and surges FED assets. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU