Moody’s Talks - Global Economy Unwrapped

Gaurav is joined by Andrew and David for a long-overdue deep dive into the U.K, where the Middle East conflict has darkened the growth and inflation picture just as the economy seemed to be stabilising. The team debate whether the economy’s surprisingly good start to the year reflects genuine strength or lingering seasonal quirks in the data, and why the surveys now point to a sharp slowdown. They also explore the implications for the labour market, housing, and the public finances, before asking what all this means for the Bank of England—as bond markets brace for higher policy rates while keeping a nervous eye on this week’s local government elections.   Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gala Riani, Head of Strategic Intelligence at SRM joins Gaurav, Suren and Barbara for an in‑depth conversation that explores the continued crisis in the Middle East. The discussion explores how the conflict has shifted from a military confrontation to an economic campaign, with a focus on U.S. strategy, Iran’s internal political dynamics, and the growing role of economic pressure and blockades. Riani offers sharp insights into Tehran’s decision-making, divisions within the regime, the influence of external actors such as China and Russia, and the prospects for negotiations. The episode also examines the outlook for the Strait of Hormuz, oil markets, and regional stability, weighing scenarios ranging from de‑escalation to renewed conflict. Gala tells the GEU that we are at greatest risk from what we fail to imagine. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode of The Global Economy Unwrapped, Gaurav Ganguly is joined by Andrew Hunter, Kamil Kovar, and Barbara Teixeira Araújo to discuss the team’s expectations for the conflict in the Middle East and its implications for the European outlook. The panel agrees that the most likely path forward is a messy reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, though there is less consensus on how quickly this will materialize. They then assess the inflationary consequences, emphasizing that the duration of elevated oil prices is the key determinant of indirect and second‑round effects. The discussion also turns to monetary policy, debating whether the ECB delivers an “insurance hike” amid fragile growth and subdued demand. Link to the Conflict in the Middle East Webinar: https://events.moodys.com/ta15998-2026-bank-wbn-map28525-conflict-in-the-middle-east Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav, Denise and Stefan reconvene after their recent webinar to tackle the flood of audience questions on the Middle East conflict and its global spillovers. They unpack different conflict scenarios, trace the knock‑on effects across energy, supply chains and commodity markets, and assess how vulnerable Asia‑Pacific is to another major price shock. The conversation then turns to growth risks across APAC and the GCC, debating whether today's disruption stays manageable and what it could mean for longer‑term energy policy choices. They also dig into financial markets, from FX volatility to capital flows and investor nerves, and revisit familiar fears of an Asian financial crisis 2.0 that never quite materialises. Along the way, the discussion occasionally drifts into internal GEU governance, including how to manage Stefan's enthusiasm for long answers and what to make of Denise's growing presence on rival podcasts.   Link to the webinar: https://events.moodys.com/ta15998-2026-bank-wbn-map28525-conflict-in-the-middle-east Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Dr Henry Wang, President of the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing and a member of several international think tanks, joins GEU for a wide‑ranging discussion on China and its evolving role on the global stage. The conversation opens with China’s efforts to mediate an end to the current conflict in the Middle East, before turning to U.S.–China relations and what to expect from the forthcoming meeting between the leaders of the world’s two superpowers. Dr Wang also reflects on China’s growth story, its current economic challenges, investment ties with Europe, and the role of the BRICS in shaping the global order. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav and the GEU team take listeners on a tour of the global risk landscape. The discussion begins in the Middle East, where conflict is disrupting energy markets, creating significant security concerns and weighing on growth. Meanwhile, Asia's reliance on Gulf energy collides with higher prices, supply‑chain strains and trade tensions – even as the AI‑driven export boom offers a buffer. The tour ends in Europe, where fragile growth and policy trade‑offs underline how global shocks are becoming increasingly intertwined. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav, Denise and Stefan meet to dig into the impact of the Middle East conflict on APAC economies. They discuss which countries could eventually run into trouble if the energy and food price shock drags on, and what governments can do to mitigate the fallout. The conversation then turns to China and the updated priorities set out at this year’s Two Sessions meeting. How does Beijing view the spillover from the Middle East conflict? Could China benefit from the U.S. being preoccupied elsewhere? And why do pork prices matter so much for China’s economy? Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

GEU sits down with David Boling, Principal at The Asia Group, to unpack what Japan is walking into as Prime Minister Takaichi heads to Washington and conflict in the Middle East rattles energy markets. Oil supply chains are under strain, the yen wobbles, and U.S. President Donald Trump shows no sign of easing his tariff instincts. Japan clearly has its work cut out. Can Tokyo still lean on old alliances and familiar playbooks in a world that feels more fractured and transactional? Boling walks through the risks and what Japan needs to get right. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav, Kamil and Stefan unpack the latest developments in the Middle East conflict and what they mean for the global economy. The world still runs on oil, and Middle East producers are keen to sell, but the Strait of Hormuz blockage is squeezing supply routes and pushing storage higher, with production cuts looming. The team asks what all of this means for Europe, APAC and the broader global outlook, weighing up winners and losers. In markets moving by the hour, even keeping track of the day of the week has become a challenge. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

GEU unpacks the broader fallout of the strikes against Iran. Energy prices have jumped, and a risk-off sentiment prevails in markets. There is a danger that the situation could get worse. Iran has retaliated, and a number of countries in the region have come under attack. Despite the worrying news, the team explains why it believes the conflict will end in a matter of weeks and why the global economy will prove resilient. And while strikes across the region are alarming, Gulf Cooperation Council economies have sufficient depth and resilience, so the regional economic hit should also remain small.   Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Join Gaurav Ganguly, chief international economist at Moody’s Analytics, as he unpacks the forces shaping the global economy. In Global Economy Unwrapped, Gaurav is joined by members of Moody’s Analytics economic research team to discuss key indicators, underlying trends, and evolving risks—offering sharp, data-driven insights from a global perspective. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav and the GEU crew break down the U.S. Supreme Court decision striking down President Trump's sweeping global tariffs, and what his replacement 15% tariff means for trade, supply chains, and global growth. The team debates who wins, who loses, and whether firms will rush to front-load shipments again before barriers rise anew. The conversation then turns to the dollar. What could trigger a sudden depreciation, and how would it ripple through balance sheets, trade, and the real economy? Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

David and Andrew join Gaurav to discuss the latest U.K. economic data and the outlook. While U.K. economic prospects remain quite subdued, the unemployment rate should level off this year, and an imminent easing in the inflation rate is a notable bright spot. Another rate cut by the Bank of England looks to be just around the corner. However, the return of political uncertainty is a less welcome development. The team also touches on investment in artificial intelligence and its implications for employment in the U.K.’s services-oriented economy. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav, Suren, Stefan and Denise get together to unpack a flurry of trade developments in Asia. The U.S. and India announce a trade deal that cut tariffs from 50% to 25%, but with scant details. The team discuss the possibility of India halting purchases of Russian oil and committing to $500 billion in U.S. goods. What would a shift towards Venezuelan oil look like? Elsewhere, Taiwan reaches its own trade agreement with Washington, while South Korea faces higher U.S. tariffs after delays in legislating its deal. The team rounds up with a quick discussion on unusual currency movements in the region. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav and the EMEA team are back for a surprisingly upbeat roundup of all things Europe. Barbara and Kamil discuss the better-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP figures, with even Germany finally showing signs of a revival. With the business surveys improving and Germany’s huge fiscal package set to feed through, is the euro zone economy set for more robust growth in 2026 than previously thought? Meanwhile, the immediate crisis over Greenland appears to have faded with President Trump dropping his tariff threats, but Andrew questions whether this was driven more by domestic U.S. politics rather than Europe’s response. Finally, the team debate whether the EU-India trade deal could mark a turning point in Europe’s push to reduce its dependence on the U.S. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav, Denise, and Stefan get together to discuss what drove Asia-Pacific in 2025 and what lies ahead in 2026. Exports surprised on the upside, with China posting a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus despite higher U.S. tariffs. Denise points to rerouting and shifting supply chains, while Gaurav argues that Chinese competitiveness does much of the work. The outlook for 2026 looks far less comfortable. Geopolitics and tariffs dominate the risks, with U.S.-China relations facing a key test ahead of the planned Trump-Xi meeting in April. Tensions closer at home are another concern, as Beijing ramps up its diplomatic feud with Japan through new export restrictions and tighter rare earth screening. This hasn’t hurt the popularity of Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi, who has called a snap election that will likely see her party gain seats. But volatile bond markets and an oversold yen complicate the year ahead and leave Stefan fielding calls from “everyone and their dog” about JGBs. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav is joined by Barbara, Andrew and Kamil for a deep dive discussion on the European outlook. Will 2026 be the year that euro zone growth finally picks up momentum? The team offer a number of reasons for optimism, including the fading impact from last year’s U.S. tariffs, lower interest rates, an apparent upturn in the global industrial cycle and the huge fiscal boost set to feed through in Germany. But as the rapidly-evolving crisis over Greenland illustrates, there are still plenty of ways this cautiously optimistic outlook could be derailed. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav and the GEU team unpack the key risks facing the global economy in 2026, but it soon becomes clear that economic forces risk being sidelined by geopolitics. How will the extraordinary U.S. actions in Venezuela affect oil markets and could it embolden Russia or China to make similar moves? Will the U.S. really seek to annex Greenland? And will 2026 bring more tariff pain, or is territorial expansion by the major powers now a bigger threat? With AI and a frothy looking U.S. stock market adding to the uncertainty, the team warn that 2026 is shaping up to be another turbulent year for the global economy. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Andrew, Barbara, Denise, and Stefan join Gaurav for a festive deep dive into global manufacturing. They explore how China became the world’s workshop, climbing the value chain and reshaping the development model pioneered by Japan and South Korea. The conversation tackles China’s dominance in green tech, its implications for global investment, and whether emerging markets like Brazil and Vietnam can carve out their own niches. The team also asks if globalisation has gone too far, and what that means for the future of trade. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Professor Kazuto Suzuki of the University of Tokyo, and Director of the Institute of Geoeconomics joins GEU to discuss the future of globalisation. A wide-ranging discussion ensues which looks back over 2025 and looks ahead over the next few years. Globalisation remains an unstoppable force, despite fears that policy will be increasingly used as a weapon by countries to protect their geopolitical and economic interests. For the Global South in particular, the future continues to look bright.  Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav and the EMEA team return to unpack a busy few weeks of economic and geopolitical news. The latest data suggest the euro zone economy is showing signs of life, but the continued reluctance of consumers to spend remains a concern. The discussion turns to the U.S. and Russia’s bombshell 28-point peace plan for Ukraine and the whirlwind of negotiations that have ensued. While a lasting resolution to the conflict still looks further away than ever, the team outline the troubling implications for European security of the U.S. administration’s growing interest in investment deals with Russia. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav is joined by Andrew and David to unpack the economic implications of the U.K. budget. After weeks of speculation and rumours of painful tax hikes, the government’s latest fiscal plans imply a less severe tightening than many had feared. But the team struggle to identify anything in the budget likely to move the needle on the U.K.’s longer-term growth prospects. And although Chancellor Rachel Reeves looks to have survived her latest test by the bond markets, there are still plenty of reasons for concern over the U.K.’s public finances. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav, Denise and Stefan unpack U.S. President Trump’s late-October swing through Asia and what it means for who makes what—and who buys it. The centrepiece was the Trump-Xi meeting, which produced a brief ceasefire in the tariff fight and set the stage for another round of talks in early 2026. In Southeast Asia, Trump signed four market-access and procurement deals that overwhelmingly favoured the U.S., while his stops in Japan and Korea delivered more photo-ops than breakthroughs. The team asks whether any of this can really shift the structural imbalance between the world’s producer, China, and the world’s buyer, the U.S. They also wrestle with the practicalities of countries committing to buy planes Boeing can’t build, and whether those U.S.-bound investment promises deserve a seat at the G20 table. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

LatAm team members Juan Pablo Fuentes and Jesse Rogers join Gaurav to take stock of the 2025-2026 electoral cycle. Gaurav and Juan Pablo discuss the economic landscape in Argentina following Javier Milei’s midterm victory. The conversation then turns to Lula, tariffs, and the economic outlook for Brazil. Jesse falls for Lula’s recent charm offensive. The discussion concludes with a discussion of Latin America’s medium-term prospects, and potential silver linings of upcoming elections in Brazil, Colombia, and Peru. Click here for a link to the latest LatAm webinar Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode, Gaurav and the team tackle a critical question: what does the future hold for globalisation? They explore how the U.S. has upended the world order this year—through tariffs, brinkmanship, and the weaponisation of economic policy—yet global growth has proved more resilient than expected. The discussion also delves into the global spillovers of U.S.-China tensions, from rare earths to semiconductors and the enduring dominance of the dollar. Will the world settle into a unipolar, bipolar, or fragmented order? Tune in for a deep dive into the forces reshaping today’s global economy. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav, Suren, Charlie, and Aidan explore the new peace in the Middle East. They start with the newly agreed twenty-point peace plan between Israel and Hamas and explore its regional implications. Despite limited details and timelines, the ceasefire has held and advanced further than previous efforts—particularly in terms of hostage returns. While full implementation remains distant, all parties are still engaged. The conversation then shifts to Iran, including peace efforts, U.S. sanctions, and the waning influence of Iran and its proxies. The team also examines the Houthis’ disruption of shipping routes through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, followed by a discussion on oil price stability amid escalating regional tensions. In closing, the conversation reflects on the resilience of GCC economies, which have defied regional geopolitical instability to attract global capital and deliver strong growth. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode, Gaurav, Barbara, Andrew, and Kamil break down Europe’s latest economic and political events. They begin with France’s ongoing political saga—where recent developments have reduced immediate instability but left deeper issues unresolved, casting further doubt on the government’s fiscal recovery plans. The team then explores the impact that U.S. pharmaceutical tariffs will have on Europe and on the Continent's long-term investment outlook. Finally, they turn to industrial production data, underscoring the persistent weakness in manufacturing as the early-year boost from frontloading continues to fade. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav, Stefan and Denise meet face-to-face for the first time to unpack the flurry of developments shaping the Asia-Pacific. Front and centre are fresh U.S. tariffs targeting pharmaceuticals, heavy-duty trucks, and furniture. Indonesia and the EU sign a long-awaited free trade agreement, while Japan’s ruling LDP looks set to shift further right with its first potential female prime minister. On the data front, the team delve into export and industrial production numbers as the effect of frontloading finally wanes for most economies. Taiwan’s AI boom however, continues to defy gravity. Plus: what makes a cabinet a cabinet? The team gets briefly philosophical in between the data dump. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Kamil, Stefan, Denise, and David join Gaurav to discuss the rationale for central bank independence and the goals of monetary policy. The discussion then turns to decisions made by central banks in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region after the pandemic, when central banks grappled with surging inflation. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In the first episode of a mini-series on global manufacturing, Gaurav and the team take a sweeping look at the sector’s evolution—from its roots in the liberalization and technological breakthroughs of the late 20th century to the geopolitical tensions shaping it today. They explore how different development models across Asia, Europe, and the U.S. have created distinct strengths and vulnerabilities, and how China’s rise—accelerated by its entry into the WTO in 2001—and recent headwinds have reshaped the global landscape. The conversation then turns to the changing nature of supply chains, the increasing irrelevance of the WTO, and the impact of shifting global consumption patterns. Finally, they examine the modern tech frontier—from semiconductors to clean tech—and the new geopolitics of manufacturing, including Europe’s energy shock and the rise of Chinese EVs. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav, Sarah, and Denise dive into the latest run of data out of ASEAN, where frontloading has helped prop up growth in the first half of the year. But with U.S. tariffs finally kicking in from August, the team weighs the risks to the region’s second-half outlook. Inflation remains moderate and within central bank targets, prompting a wave of monetary easing amid a weaker U.S. dollar. Still, growth forecasts have been slashed across much of the region. The team also unpacks the concept of output gaps and what they reveal about ASEAN’s trajectory in the years to come. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Brittany Merollo joins the team to discuss France's ongoing political shake-up and the appointment of a new prime minister. They assess the implications for the 2026 budget, the fading prospects for fiscal consolidation, and France’s subdued growth outlook. Before they get into France, Barbara, Kamil, and Gaurav unpack the Eurozone’s latest growth figures, exploring how frontloading boosted first-half performance and what that means for the second half. There is some upside for investment which is now expected to grow modestly rather than contract, but it contrasts with weakening prospects for consumer spending. They also touch upon the diverging trends in confidence indicators, with progress in the euro zone’s outsize services sector reversing, while manufacturing confidence continues to recover. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

With frontloading fading and trade on shaky ground, Gaurav, Denise, and Stefan sift through Asia-Pacific’s latest export figures for signs of a slowdown. China’s manufacturing PMI offers little comfort; soft across the board and especially grim on the jobs front. Over in Japan, a surge in rice prices is keeping inflation sticky, but wage growth isn’t playing ball. So why won’t the BoJ hike? The team also dives into China’s flirtation with deflation, a Thai economy on edge, and why Southeast Asia’s political unrest—from Jakarta to Bangkok—is about more than just the headlines. Plus: chips and investment pledges are shaking up trade talks, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meetings spark questions about whether China, India and Russia are really turning a new page or just putting on a show. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav, Kamil and Andrew return to discuss the latest news on the European economy. Kamil unpacks the latest trade and industrial production data and what they reveal about the impact of higher U.S. tariffs. Is the weakness just a reversal of earlier frontloading in pharmaceuticals, or are tariffs starting to bite? Meanwhile, Andrew discusses the key takeaways from the text of the EU-U.S. trade agreement and what it suggests about the likely path of tariff rates. The damage from tariffs is set to grow and uncertainty remains high, but the team share a sense that the risks of recession in Europe have receded and even manage to agree on the odds. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Andrew, Barbara, and Denise join Gaurav for an in-depth exploration of the multifaceted Russia-Ukraine conflict, including potential peace terms and shifting scenarios. They assess the unexpected resilience of the Russian economy amid sanctions and growing internal challenges. The team also examines global energy markets, focusing on Russian oil flows to India and China, Europe’s reliance on Russian gas, and the broader feasibility of U.S. energy exports. They then turn to America’s defence strategy and the implications for Europe, before ending with thoughts on the potential for the economic reconstruction of both countries. Bringing this war to an end on terms that are fair for Ukraine and ensuring an enduring peace is much easier said than done, but surely worthy of the Nobel Peace Prize? Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav and Andrew welcome Suren Vardanyan and Charlie Houston to the podcast to discuss the Middle East. The region remains relatively insulated from U.S. tariffs and has avoided the worst effects of recent global shocks. The team breaks down the shifting role of hydrocarbon exports and revenues, debates evolving tail risks in geopolitics, and discusses how significant investments in AI and future technologies could fundamentally change the key drivers of these economies. Click here to Read Gaurav Ganguly and Barbara Teixeira Araujo's Economic View paper Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav is joined by Stefan, Denise, Andrew, and Kamil for a bumper episode on the global fallout from the latest wave U.S. tariffs and deals. The team debates whether this is the end of globalization as we know it or just a messy new chapter. From the EU’s apparent capitulation and Switzerland’s chocolate woes to Japan’s plan B and Southeast Asia’s tightrope walk, the team breaks down the implications for growth, investment, and global trade, and why financial markets still seem oddly calm. Are tariffs now a general-purpose economic weapon for the U.S.? And will European and Asian economies ever fight back, or are we all just frogs in slowly boiling water?For deeper insights from the Moody’s Analytics research team, watch the latest on-demand webinar, Japan’s Economic Outlook: One Step Forward, Two Steps Back. Available now.Here is the link: https://events.moodys.com/mc68475-wbn-2025-map27519-japan-economic-outlook-q3 Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

David Muir joins Gaurav and Andrew for another U.K. special. The U.K. increasingly appears to have done relatively well in recent trade negotiations with the U.S., but the team struggle to find much else to be cheerful about, with the second half of 2025 still likely to bring weak growth, stubborn inflation and higher taxes. The team debate whether further rate cuts by the Bank of England will brighten the mood, but David warns that the pace of easing is likely to remain gradual. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav, Denise, and Stefan dissect the shock loss of the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition in Japan’s upper house elections. Cost-of-living woes and anti-foreign rhetoric dominated the campaign. So, is Japan catching the populism bug for good? Then it’s on to the U.S. trade deal blitz across Asia, from Tokyo to Manila to Hanoi. Equity markets are cheering, but are these deals anything more than smoke and mirrors? Finally, the team tackles the big question: is the trade chaos behind us, or just getting started? Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

After another flurry of U.S. tariff announcements, Gaurav and team unpack what it all means for Europe. As the clock ticks toward the new August 1 deadline, the prospect of an EU-U.S. deal looks touch-and-go, while the team also debate whether the EU is more likely to try and fight higher U.S. tariffs with retaliatory measures of its own. Although recent data suggest European economies have held up surprisingly well amid ongoing trade tensions, the downside risks appear to be rising once again. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hot on the heels of President Trump’s latest tariff salvos, Stefan, Katrina and Denise break down the dizzying hikes and what they spell for Asia’s export-driven economies. No matter where tariffs eventually settle, the pain will ripple through the region. With most governments keeping their fiscal purse strings tight, central banks will be left holding the bag to keep economies afloat. And as the team half-jokes about signing up for social networks just to keep pace, one thing’s clear: this trade war is far from over, and the damage is adding up fast. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav and the team are joined by Ben Acton-Bond for a special episode on Germany. Ben explains how the German economy is likely to fare in the face of higher U.S. tariffs, amid mixed signals from the recent data. The team debates whether Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s plans to ramp up spending on infrastructure and defense will lift Germany out of its years-long slump or if a recession is still a significant risk, while Gaurav takes the opportunity to show off his extensive German vocabulary. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Steve, Katrina and Gaurav welcome Karl Godderis, the CEO of EUROCHAM in Malaysia for an in-depth conversation about the expanding trade relationship between the EU and Southeast Asia. While tariffs are not an issue, both sides must face the EU’s regulatory environment. Katrina and Gaurav also say goodbye and thanks to Steve on the eve of his retirement.  Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav, Kamil, and Barbara return for a timely discussion on the rising risks of recession in Europe. They begin by unpacking four major threats currently weighing on the region’s outlook. Gaurav opens with an analysis of the Israel-Iran conflict and its potential economic spillovers, including developments in oil markets. Kamil follows with a look at the implications of an escalating trade war, while Barbara explores the growing challenge of global fragmentation. The trio also touches on the broader theme of global financial instability and its role in shaping downside risks.In the final segment, the conversation turns to how they assess the probability of a European recession. While their views differ slightly, all agree that the outlook has grown increasingly fragile, with recession risks at even odds at best.  Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Fresh off the heels of a U.S.-China trade truce reached in London, Ambassador Kurt Tong , Managing Partner at The Asia Group joins the Asia podcast crew. The team discusses the implications of the chaotic U.S. policy and how China and the broader region are readjusting to the dramatic shifts. Steve and Kurt sneak in some baseball references. Go Phillies!Guest: Kurt Tong, Managing Partner at The Asia GroupRead more from Kurt Tong here Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

With new euro zone data releases, and an ECB decision to boot, there is plenty to talk about. Gaurav and team roll up their sleeves and do what they do best: analyze the numbers.  Gaurav and Kamil kick off with a deep dive into our economic forecasts for Europe, unpacking the key assumptions and highlighting the downgrades made since Donald Trump’s election as U.S. President. They examine the role of tariffs, uncertainty, and other contributing factors, while also acknowledging the huge variations across European countries. The team then turns to the latest data and explores how significantly momentum has been boosted by stockpiling ahead of U.S. tariffs. Finally, the group reacts to the latest euro zone inflation data and the ECB’s recent rate decision. Has the central bank reached the end of its easing cycle—or is there more to come? Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Steve and Stefan discuss with their colleague Jesse Rogers the complex role of China in the Mexican economy and in Mexico’s exports to the U.S. Jesse shares his research showing China’s important role in Mexico’s domestic economy, particularly for autos, transportation and other infrastructure-related goods. But China plays less of a part in Mexico’s U.S.-bound export trade, unlike, say, in Vietnam, where Chinese and other foreign firms assemble goods for export to the U.S. market. Steve and Stefan are following closely the Taiwan economy, one of the strongest in Asia right now. And Jesse suggests some alternatives to Bad Bunny if one is into salsa and Latin music.  Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav, Barbara and Kamil welcome David Muir as they discuss the latest U.K. economic data and the potential economic benefits of the three trade deals recently signed by the U.K. government. While the U.K.-U.S. deal looks quite narrow, the trade agreement with India is much broader in scope and might yield some long-term benefits. Crucially, the EU-U.K. deal isn’t a game changer—but it does represent a partial reset in economic relations and a positive step in the right direction. Unfortunately, none of the three deals will massively boost the U.K. economy, nor help avoid tax rises in the autumn. In the second half of the episode, the team moves on to talk about the prospects for a U.S.-EU deal, and the conclusion is that it’s still difficult, even though it looks more plausible now than it did in early April. Does this mean that reciprocal tariffs take effect in July, or that the EU will have no choice but to retaliate against U.S. tariffs?  Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hot on the heels of the U.S.-China tariff truce, the team chat about all things trade. The episode kicks off with a trip down memory lane, as Steve tries to place the current chaos in the history of economic moments-in-time. Harry then gives the lay of the land following the weekend’s negotiations, and Katrina and Stefan explore signs of rerouting in the latest export data from China.  Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav and the team discuss the newly signed U.S.-U.K. trade deal and whether the de-escalation in global trade tensions will continue. The conversation then turns to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Andrew is skeptical that the recent U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal will bring a lasting ceasefire any closer, Gaurav and Barbara take stock of Europe’s energy security, while Kamil weighs in on the economic and fiscal impact of higher European defense spending. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.