New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy | Podcasts

This week, Iran considered a one-page peace proposal sent by the United States that would end hostilities, while Israel issued new evacuation orders for southern Lebanon and bombed Beirut despite an ongoing ceasefire. In the Indo-Pacific, China gave conflicting advice to its banks on how to respond to U.S. sanctions, citing a violation of international law, while the EU took steps to reduce its technological dependency on Chinese hardware imports. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Russia conducted airstrikes despite a Ukrainian ceasefire proposal, while mobile internet access in Moscow and St. Petersburg was shut off due to security concerns surrounding upcoming Victory Day parades and U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to withdraw 5,000 U.S. troops from Germany.

This week, the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire following President Donald Trump’s threats of targeting Iran's power plants and other infrastructure, while Israel escalated its bombing campaign against Lebanon. In the Indo-Pacific, South Korea met with representatives from Gulf countries to discuss securing energy supplies, and Taiwan’s opposition leader visited China, stalling Taipei’s efforts to pass a special defense budget. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, both sides agreed to an Orthodox Easter ceasefire, while Trump met with NATO’s secretary general amid a strain between Washington and the transatlantic alliance. In the U.S., immigration enforcement operations continued despite a recent funding bill restricting funds from reaching border and immigration operations. Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Student Fellow Riley Sullivan is joined by Dr. Kseniya Sotnikova, Ax:son Johnson Fellow with the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), to discuss women's roles in the war in Ukraine.  Learn more about Dr. Sotnikova: https://cepa.org/author/kseniya-sotnikova/ Learn more about New Lines' work on CRSV: https://newlinesinstitute.org/project/crsv/ Learn more about New Lines' work on Ukraine: https://newlinesinstitute.org/category/intl-law-peace/ 

In this episode of Crime Beat Conversations, Rafaella Lipschitz talks to Adam Rousselle, illicit finance expert and founder of Between the Lines, to discuss Chinese money-laundering networks and their role as the financial backbone of Latin America’s drug cartels. They explore how China’s internal capital flight pressures have produced a shadow financial architecture that connects Chinese elites to fentanyl networks in the America’s, and how traditional counter-narcotics enforcement misses the mark in combatting these illicit financial systems. Stay tuned for more from Crime Beat Conversations. Read Adam’s latest piece for the New Lines Institute here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/global-security-mil-priorities/china-cartel-nexus-the-liquidity-architecture-transforming-the-global-drug-economy/ Find Between the Lines here: https://www.btl-research.com/ For more from Adam, follow on LinkedIn (https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-rousselle-918659188/) and X (https://x.com/rousselle_adam)   A New Lines Institute Mafiacracies Project production: https://newlinesinstitute.org/initiative/mafiacracies-project/   For more from Rafaella, follow on LinkedIn (www.linkedin.com/in/rlipschitz) and X (https://x.com/rlipschitz01)   Explore similar analysis and forecasting from New Lines institute: https://newlinesinstitute.org/ Follow our socials for news on upcoming events, analysis, infographics, and more! https://linktr.ee/NewLinesInstitute

In this episode, we continue to highlight our recently published 2026 Q2 forecast report on geopolitical hotspots around the world and their implications on global connectivity themes like trade, technology, energy, and climate. We discuss the internal destabilization happening in Iran, and review some of the main events that happened in Venezuela, the US, Afghanistan/Pakistan, and in conflicts in Africa.   Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

This podcast highlights our recently published 2026 Q2 Forecast report on geopolitical hotspots around the world and their implications on global connectivity themes like trade, technology, energy, and climate. In part 1 of this podcast, we discuss our outlook for global hotspots like the Middle East, Indo-Pacific, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while in part 2 we cover the US/Americas and hotspots elsewhere throughout the world. 

This week, the United States and Iran traded proposals for a diplomatic settlement to their war, with Pakistan working as an intermediary, while the U.S. sent an additional 2,000 troops to the region for a possible ground operation into Iran. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that there was “irrefutable evidence” of Russian intelligence aid to Iran, while the U.K. authorized its armed forces to board and seize Russian shadow fleet vessels. In the Indo-Pacific, a member of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces broke into the Chinese Embassy in Tokyo as Japan plans to downgrade relations with China, while the White House confirmed new dates for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The U.S. formally stated it would deny access to a Russian tanker aiming to deliver oil to Cuba, while continuing to allow U.S. suppliers to sell oil to Cuba’s private sector. 

This week, the conflict in Iran intensified as the U.S. bombed military facilities on Iran’s Kharg Island and Israel bombed key Iranian energy facilities, with Iran responding with attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf. Israel also committed troops for a possible ground invasion of Lebanon.  In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. President Donald Trump formally postponed a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping by a month in light of the Iran conflict, while Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi visited Washington. Ukraine signed an agreement with the U.K. focusing on defense industry cooperation, while Türkiye stated it was willing to host a new round of negotiations between Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. The U.S. continued its pressure campaign on Cuba, with Trump suggesting he wanted to “take” the island, while Russia pledged to deliver oil amid island-wide blackouts caused by the U.S. blockade.    Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/  

This week, the U.S. and Israel continued their military campaigns against Iran and Lebanon, while Tehran vowed to block oil exports from the region, leading to worldwide repercussions in the energy sector. Despite the strikes, China stated it would likely go ahead with an upcoming summit with President Donald Trump at the end of March, while the South Korean parliament approved the $350 billion investment in the United States.  Representatives from the Trump administration met with their Russian counterparts to discuss the potential easing of sanctions against Russia, while talks on ending the Russia-Ukraine war remained on hold.  In the Americas, the Trump administration maintained pressure on Cuba and opened new trade investigations that could see new tariffs being imposed globally by July.   Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

This week, the United States and Israel launched air- and naval-based attacks against Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran retaliated with strikes against neighboring Gulf states and by closing the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, talks between Russia and Ukraine have been postponed as the war detracted from diplomatic efforts in Abu Dhabi. In the Indo-Pacific, China held its annual National People’s Congress, approving the country’s new Five-Year Plan, while Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney signed deals with India and Australia. In the Americas, the U.S. eased some pressure on Cuba, allowing Venezuelan oil to be sold to Cuba’s private sector, while U.S. officials have threatened Venezuelan interim leader Delcy Rodriguez with indictment.   Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

This week, tensions between Iran and the U.S. continued to rise despite ongoing negotiations, with Iran threatening repercussions if the U.S. were to attack and Israel threatening Lebanon with strikes against civilian infrastructure if Hezbollah acted in defense of Iran. In the Indo-Pacific, China restricted rare earth exports to Japan, and U.S. aerospace manufacturers warned of dwindling rare earth supplies, despite last year’s trade truce. The U.S. imposed a global 10% tariff following last week’s decision by the Supreme Court that invalidated IEEPA tariffs, and the Cuban Coast Guard killed four passengers of a U.S.-flagged speedboat that entered Cuban waters. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed optimism in upcoming trilateral negotiations with Russia and the U.S., while the U.S. held talks with Ukraine on post-conflict reconstruction. 

This week, the U.S. continued its buildup of naval and air forces near Iran for a potential military operation, while Iranian officials reported progress in diplomatic talks. In the United States, the Supreme Court invalidated tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, dealing a major blow to the administration’s trade policy. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the latest round of peace negotiations ended with inconclusive results, while world leaders gathered in Germany for the Munich Security Conference. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. unveiled plans to deploy more missile systems to the Philippines, while China prepared to receive German Chancellor Friederich Merz. As the U.S. pressure campaign against Cuba continued, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Cuban government representatives. Meanwhile, U.S. forces intercepted another Venezuelan-linked tanker in the Indian Ocean.  Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/  

In this episode of Crime Beat Conversations, Rafaella Lipschitz sat down with Stefano Ritondale again, to discuss the dynamics of the Sinaloa cartel civil war and emerging alliances between Los Chapitos, a faction of the Sinaloa cartel, and CJNG, Sinaloa’s historic rival. Stefano breaks down how the Sinaloa civil war has reframed how we should understand Mexican cartel alliances. We examine some of the ways CJNG is providing support to Los Chapitos in their fights against the Mayitos, what this alliance means for other Mexican cartels, and how policymakers should go about understanding this complex landscape. Stay tuned for more from Crime Beat Conversations.    Find Stefano’s piece on cartel militarization for New Lines Institute here:  https://newlinesinstitute.org/people/stefano-ritondale/    Learn more about Artorias: https://www.artorias.com/    For more from Stefano, follow on X (https://x.com/All_Source_News) and LinkedIn (https://www.linkedin.com/in/stefano-ritondale-1046b5345/)    A New Lines Institute Mafiacracies Project production: https://newlinesinstitute.org/initiative/mafiacracies-project/   For more from Rafaella, follow on LinkedIn (www.linkedin.com/in/rlipschitz) and X (https://x.com/rlipschitz01)   Explore similar analysis and forecasting from New Lines institute: https://newlinesinstitute.org/   Follow our socials for news on upcoming events, analysis, infographics, and more! https://linktr.ee/NewLinesInstitute

This week, U.S. President Donald Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington, after which Trump insisted that negotiations with Iran would continue, while Israel is reportedly preparing for a ground offensive in Gaza against Hamas. In the Indo Pacific, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is considering constitutional reform following her party’s victory in parliament, while the U.S. is preparing a new arms sale to Taiwan.  In the Americas, Cuba has warned airline companies that they would no longer be able to refuel on the island amid the country’s energy crisis following an oil embargo by the United States.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accepted a U.S. invitation to participate in peace talks in Miami next week, while the European Union is preparing a list of concessions it will demand from Russia.  Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

This week, the U.S. and Iran held talks in Oman over Iran’s nuclear program amid rising tensions following U.S. forces shooting down an Iranian reconnaissance drone in the Arabian Sea. In the U.S., the federal government reopened after a partial shutdown following commitments by the Trump administration to reduce the number of federal law enforcement officers in Minnesota. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. hailed a trade agreement with India following New Delhi’s reported commitment to halt Russian oil purchases, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosted foreign leaders for a new trading block for critical minerals. Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. held trilateral negotiations in Abu Dhabi while Russia resumed strikes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure following a one-week stop in those bombings.      Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

This week, in the Middle East, U.S. President Donald Trump continued to weigh options for possible intervention in Iran and ordered military assets to be deployed in the region. In the U.S., Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer continued to negotiate a deal that would avert a U.S. government shutdown in exchange for restrictions on immigration enforcement, while U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio testified in Congress on the future of governance for Venezuela. In the Indo-Pacific, the Chinese government removed the vice chairman of the Central Military Commission and authorized key tech companies to order Nvidia chips. Meanwhile, Russian and Ukrainian officials held talks in Abu Dhabi about ending their conflict, while Russian President Vladimir Putin stated a willingness to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Moscow.    Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

This week, world leaders gathered at the World Economic Forum in Davos, an event dominated by U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to annex Greenland, which he later walked back following discussions with NATO. In the Middle East, Trump inaugurated his “Board of Peace” and ordered the Department of Defense to draw up plans for a possible intervention in Iran. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, top U.S. officials held separate meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin as Russia continued its strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. Congress approved a revised defense budget that earmarks $1 billion for Taiwan’s defense, while the United Kingdom approved the controversial construction of China’s new embassy to the U.K. Register your interest to gain access to the 2026 Geopolitical Forecast Report and information on the latest forecasting and risk management platform developed by New Lines. Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

This week, the White House ramped up pressure on Iran as the regime’s protest crackdown led to thousands of protestors dead according to varying accounts. Denmark and Greenland sent their top diplomats to negotiate with the U.S. over Greenland’s status, while European countries have sent small troop contingents to the island ahead of planned joint military exercises to assess how to ensure the country’s security. In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. President Donald Trump formally approved the sale of Nvidia chips to China despite remaining reservations on both sides, while Japan is preparing for possible snap elections. In Ukraine, Russia has continued to strike Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, while its efforts to obtain security guarantees from the U.S. have stalled. Register your interest to gain access to the 2026 Geopolitical Forecast Report and information on the latest forecasting and risk management platform developed by New Lines. Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

This week, the United States conducted a major military operation against Venezuela resulting in the capture of President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, with implications throughout the Americas and globally. In the Middle East, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to intervene militarily in Iran as the country faces large-scale anti-government protests, while Saudi Arabia conducted strikes against UAE-backed forces in Yemen. In the Indo-Pacific, China banned all dual-use exports to Japanese military companies, while Chinese President Xi Jinping met with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, signaling increased cooperation. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the U.S. backed a security guarantees proposal for a Ukraine ceasefire, and Trump approved a bipartisan congressional sanctions package against Russia’s energy sector. Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

In this episode of the New Lines Contours Podcast, host Eugene Chausovsky sits down with Farid Shafiyev, the chairman of the Center of Analysis and International Relations and former ambassador for Azerbaijan to Canada and Czechia. Together, they discuss the developments over the last year in diplomatic relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the economic interests foreign powers have in the region, and how the South Caucasus will develop in the future.

In this episode of the New Lines Contours Podcast, host Eugene Chausovsky sits down with Richard Giragosian, the founding director of the Regional Studies Center and a guest lecturer for the NATO Defense College in Rome. Together, they discuss the developments over the last year in diplomatic relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the influence foreign powers have in the region, and how the South Caucasus will develop in the future.

In the last Global Hotspots episode of 2025, Milos and Andrew sit down with New Lines student fellows Ashley Nunes and Sebastian Dittgen. Together, they discuss analytical hotspots New Lines analysts tracked in 2025, including Venezuela, the DRC, and the wave of Gen Z protests around the globe. Read the 2026 Forecast - https://newlinesinstitute.org/analytical-products/2026-annual-forecast/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

A global adaptation to a new state of the world driven by the White House’s approach to international relations will headline 2026. Efforts to de-escalate the war in Ukraine will persist and gain some traction. In the Middle East, the fragile ceasefire in Gaza will hold as tensions among Israel, Syria, and Iran continue to mount. A U.S.-China trade truce will keep the Indo-Pacific relatively stable economically, as the rival powers continue to vie for influence with diplomatic and security repercussions that extend well beyond the region. Global trade flows are expected to stabilize, supported by improving logistics conditions and more resilient supply-chain networks. At the same time, renewable energy will expand through new installations and a rising share in power generation, reinforced by efficiency gains from AI-driven technologies. Deteriorating humanitarian conditions in Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the possibility of armed conflict in Venezuela, and youth-driven protest movements will pose destabilization risks to various degrees around the world. Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

A global adaptation to a new strategic environment will define 2026, driven by the White House’s approach to international relations. Though Washington will continue pursuing de-escalation in select conflict zones, the year ahead will be marked by persistent geopolitical frictions, intensifying hybrid competition, and acute humanitarian pressures. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20251212/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

In this episode, host Zara Farouk speaks with Syrian author and political dissident Yassin al-Haj Saleh about the long-term consequences of authoritarianism, the failures of the international community, and the evolution of political activism in exile. Their conversation reflects on lessons from the Syrian struggle and the possibilities for justice and renewal.

These past two weeks, the U.S. ramped up diplomatic efforts with Russia and Ukraine to bring an end to the conflict, while Russian shadow fleet vessels were allegedly struck by Ukrainian drones. In the Middle East, Hamas transferred the remains of a hostage to Israel, while Lebanon confirmed it would conduct deconfliction talks with Israel following pressure from the United States. In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. President Donald Trump halted planned sanctions against China’s Ministry of State Security, and China ramped up its military presence near Japan amid increased tensions over Taiwan. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20251205/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

This week, U.S. President Donald Trump met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, approving the sale of F-35 fighter jets and designating Saudi Arabia as a major non-NATO ally. The U.N. Security Council passed a resolution to implement Trump’s 20-point peace plan in Gaza, while clashes between Israel and Hamas continued. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. removed reciprocal tariffs from several imports from the Philippines and confirmed the sale of a missile system to Taiwan. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Poland blamed Russian operatives for sabotaging its railways, while U.S. officials met with their Ukrainian counterparts in Kyiv to discuss a new peace plan. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20251121/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

In this episode of the Bridging the Gap podcast series, Rachel Nelson sits down with Ben Lorber, a senior research analyst at Political Research Associates and co-author of "Safety Through Solidarity: A Radical Guide to Fighting Antisemitism." They discuss how antisemitism has evolved in the context of Israel–Palestine and the most recent war in Gaza, the debate over defining and identifying it, and why solidarity with other marginalized groups is central to Jewish safety. Their conversation delves into Zionism and anti-Zionism, as well as ways to address the growing polarization around these political identities.

This week in the Middle East, clashes between Hamas and the Israel Defense Forces hindered implementation of the U.S.-brokered Gaza ceasefire, while U.S. President Donald Trump and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa met in Washington. In the Russia/Ukraine war, Russian forces continued their drive to capture the city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk and seized three villages in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia oblast, while Canada imposed new sanctions targeting Russia’s drone and energy industries. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. and China continued their mutual easing of trade restrictions, while Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks hinting at Japan’s potential military involvement in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan drew a strong rebuke from Beijing. The U.S. government shutdown ended after 43 days. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20251114/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

This week, in the Middle East the U.S. presented the U.N. Security Council with a draft resolution advancing the implementation of the “Board of Peace” as part of the Israel/Gaza ceasefire agreement, while Iran stated it would not engage in negotiations with the U.S. so long as Washington backs Israel. In the Indo-Pacific, China has started to remove tariffs and trade barriers following last week’s agreement between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, while U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth reached military cooperation agreements with China and Vietnam, while also preparing one with South Korea. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Ukrainian drone attacks forced Russia to suspend some oil refining and export operations, while intense fighting continued near Pokrovsk amid a Russian push to capture the city. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20251107/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

With the PKK announcing disarmament, New Lines' own Zara Farouk speaks with, Ceylan Akca, a DEM Party Politician in Türkiye's Grand National Assembly. Together, they explore whether this moment marks a true turning point or another pause in a long, unfinished struggle and what comes next for Kurdish rights, representation, and reconciliation in Türkiye.

This week, in the Indo-Pacific, U.S. President Donald Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, where they agreed on new trade concessions following a weeklong series of meetings that saw the U.S. upgrading trade ties with regional allies. In the Middle East, Israel and Hamas traded ceasefire violation accusations following Israel Defense Forces (IDF) strikes on Gaza that resulted in over 100 Palestinian deaths. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Russia reported successful test launches of a nuclear-capable underwater drone and cruise missile, while Ukraine continued its campaign of drone strikes against Russian energy infrastructure. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20251031/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

This week, the U.S. imposed sanctions against two Russian oil companies following the cancellation of a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, while the EU passed sanctions against Russian energy infrastructure and vessels. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. and Australia signed a new critical minerals deal ahead of an upcoming meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, while the Chinese Communist Party approved a draft of its new five-year plan. In the Middle East, U.S. officials traveled to Israel in an attempt to bolster Gaza ceasefire efforts amid reports of clashes between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Palestinians. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20251024/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

This week, in the Middle East, Israel and Hamas started implementing the first phase of their ceasefire deal, although violations and delays were reported. In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to increase tariffs on Chinese imports ahead of a planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and said India confirmed it would halt Russian oil purchases. In the Russia/Ukraine war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Trump to discuss the U.S. possibly providing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pressured his Japanese counterparts to halt Russian oil purchases. Trump confirmed CIA covert operations in Venezuela as the Pentagon confirmed a striking a fifth alleged drug smuggling vessel in the Caribbean. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20251017/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

In this episode of the Bridging the Gap podcast, host Rachel Nelson talks with Matthew Petti, an assistant editor at Reason whose work has appeared in outlets including the BBC, The Intercept, and New Lines Magazine. They discuss the covert funding of Israeli settlements by U.S.-registered charities, specifically what projects and purchases they are financing, how their work exacerbates violent conditions in the West Bank, and how U.S. policymakers approach the topic.

This week, in the Middle East, Israel and Hamas agreed to implement the first phase of a U.S.-led ceasefire deal following its signing in Egypt, while U.S. President Donald Trump has announced he may travel to Israel in the coming days. In the Indo-Pacific, China expanded restrictions on rare earth exports and added sanctions against foreign defense companies, while North Korea celebrated the 80th anniversary of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea’s founding. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, both countries continued to attack each other’s energy infrastructure, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported successful ongoing operations in a counteroffensive in the Donetsk region. In the U.S., Trump called for Illinois Governor JB Pritzker to be imprisoned following the deployment of 500 National Guard troops to the state.

This week, Israel accepted a U.S. proposal to end the war in Gaza that has received support from Qatar and Egypt, while U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order providing safety guarantees to Qatar. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Trump is considering providing Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles and targeting intelligence, and G7 countries pledged to coordinate measures against nations importing Russian oil. In the Indo-Pacific, documents revealed that Russia was aiding China in its planning of airborne operations, while the U.S. indicated it was not making efforts to lower tariffs against China. In the U.S., a government shutdown began following deadlocked talks between Republicans and Democrats. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20251003/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

The fourth quarter of 2025 will be headlined by the potential for military escalation in the Middle East, including increased Israeli operations in Gaza and the expansion of Israel’s targeting of Iran-aligned groups throughout the region. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the fourth quarter will be marked by hybrid escalation in the form of additional Western tariffs and sanctions against Russia as the diplomatic track to reach an end to the conflict will continue to prove elusive. In the Indo-Pacific, the fourth quarter will see diplomatic de-escalation as the U.S. and China make further progress toward a trade agreement that lowers tariffs. In global connectivity themes, there will be slight enhancements in trade in the fourth quarter as the White House’s tariffs and technology restrictions rebalance and broadly settle into a new normal, while AI-driven boosts in power consumption and climate-related threats raise the risk of energy disruption. Read the Q4 Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/q4-2025-forecast/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

In this episode of the Contours Podcast, host Robert Kremzner sits down with John Nagl and Jonathan Schroden, experts in irregular warfare and the American experience in Afghanistan. Together, they go over the strategic, operational, and tactical failure of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, how the Afghanistan withdrawal can inform future withdrawals, and President Donald Trump’s call to re-occupy the Bagram Airbase.

This week, Israel initiated its full ground invasion of Gaza City, while the United Arab Emirates and other Arab states warned they may reconsider their diplomatic ties with Israel. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. and China agreed on a framework deal regarding the sale of Chinese social media app TikTok, extending its deadline, while China ordered its companies to stop buying microchips from U.S. chipmaker Nvidia. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, U.S. President Donald Trump pressured European nations to suspend all energy imports from Russia, while Polish defense officials announced a joint cooperation initiative with Ukraine on countering drone attacks following last week’s incursion by Russian drones into Polish airspace. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve announced it would be cutting interest rates, with more cuts expected before the end of the year. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250919/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

In this episode of the Bridging the Gap Podcast, Rachel Nelson sits down with Andrew P. Miller, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress (CAP) and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Israeli-Palestinian Affairs in the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs at the U.S. Department of State. They discuss his experience shaping U.S. policy towards Israel/Palestine, including sanctions targeting perpetrators of violence in the West Bank, regional diplomacy, and the evolving role of U.S. engagement in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, especially concerning Israel’s war in Gaza.

This week, in the wake of an Israeli air attack targeting Hamas leadership in Qatar, Doha called for an emergency summit to convene next week. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, NATO forces shot down Russian drones that crossed into Polish airspace from Ukraine, with Poland subsequently triggering NATO’s Article 4 consultation process. In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. President Donald Trump demanded that the EU pressure Russia by imposing tariffs on China and India. Meanwhile, the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency apprehended 300 South Korean workers in Georgia, most of whom have since left the United States. In the U.S., conservative media personality and Trump ally Charlie Kirk was shot and killed at an event in Utah. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250912/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

In this episode of Gendering Geopolitics, New Lines’ own Emily Prey sits down with renowned international lawyers Louise Arimatsu and Christine Chinkin, authors of the New Lines report “A Gendered Analysis of Aggression and International Law.” Among other topics, their discussion touches on how gender is used to justify aggression; the gaps in international law regarding slow, non-spectacular violence; and how a gender lens can help with atrocity prevention. Read the report here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/gender/a-gendered-analysis-of-aggression-and-international-law/

This week, China hosted the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation security forum, attended by 20 foreign leaders including Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and representatives of Ukraine’s allies in a new round of discussions on Ukrainian security guarantees, while U.S. President Donald Trump renewed threats of sanctions against Russia. In the Middle East, Israel’s campaign against Gaza City intensified while its Cabinet convened to discuss a proposal to further annex West Bank territory. In the Caribbean Sea, the U.S. launched a military strike against a vessel linked to drug smugglers who the Trump administration claim are operating under Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s orders. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250905/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

In this episode of the New Lines Countours podcast, Director Caroline Rose sits down with New Lines Senior Fellow Faysal Itani to discuss the potential withdrawal of the United Nations Interim Force In Lebanon (UNIFIL). Together, they discuss the role that UNIFIL has played over the previous decades, the challenges that the interim force faces, and what the Lebanese security landscape may look like going forward.

In this episode of Gendering Geopolitics, New Lines Associate Analyst Amari Jones sits down with Nyamal Tutdeal, a globally recognized South Sudanese-Ethiopian-American peace architect who has transformed conflict into healing through her blend of academic excellence and ancestral wisdom. Together, they explore the intersection of identity, power, and peacebuilding, and how Nyamal’s unique approach is reshaping global security and the role of women in post-conflict societies.

This week in the Middle East, France, Germany, and the U.K. triggered a mechanism to reimpose sanctions against Iran following Tehran’s noncompliance with nuclear inspections, while Israel intensified shelling in Gaza City ahead of its anticipated occupation. In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. President Donald Trump played host to his South Korean counterpart at the White House, while Seoul called for strengthening ties with China. In Ukraine, Russian forces pushed farther into Ukrainian territory and continued their bombing campaign as the U.S. weighed security guarantees for Ukraine. U.S. tariffs of 50% on Indian imports went into effect, while Mexico announced plans to raise tariffs on China. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250829/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

In this episode of the Contours Lebanese Logic Podcast, host Faysal Itani sits down with Non-Resident Senior Fellow Dania Arayssi. Together, they discuss the recent effort by the Lebanese government and military to disarm Hezbollah, including how likely the effort is to succeed, and what the future landscape of power looks like in the country.

In this episode of Strategic Crossroads, host Zara Farouk sits down with journalist and analyst Wladimir van Wilgenburg to unpack the landmark March agreement between the Syrian Democratic Forces and the Syrian government. Together they explore what this deal means for Kurdish self-rule, the future of gender parity in governance, and the mounting pressures on Syrian minority communities such as the Druze. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not an official policy or position of New Lines Institute.

This week, U.S. President Donald Trump held meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and key European leaders to advance a peace deal with Russia, while Russian attacks continued across Ukraine. In the Indo-Pacific, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi travelled to India for trade talks as bilateral relations thawed, while Trump threatened to impose tariffs on semiconductor imports within the coming week. In the Middle East, Israeli forces captured the outskirts of Gaza City as the campaign to fully occupy the city began, while Iran held its first naval drills since its June war with Israel. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250822/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/