Not Investment Advice

Three VCs, one mic, three opinions you won’t hear at a fund meeting. Hosted by Eric, Ian, and Kevin. ---------------------------------------- Toma Bravo just handed Medallia to its creditors and ate an estimated $5.7 billion in equity value — the largest LBO write-off since 2008. The story sounds like a one-firm miscalculation, but underneath it is something bigger: AI is starting to reprice every SaaS multiple anyone underwrote in 2021. We also got into Beijing forcing the unwind of a $2B Meta deal after the money had already wired, the Powell succession drama, and why Ian thinks Middle Eastern LP capital calls are a flight risk.

This week, Sam Bankman-Fried tweeted from prison about the FTX portfolio he could have held — Anthropic, SpaceX, Cursor, Solana, Robinhood — and the boys spent half the episode doing the math on what might have been the greatest VC fund ever assembled by an alleged fraudster. Meanwhile, Elon quietly admitted that 4 million Tesla owners were lied to about Full Self-Driving, SpaceX put a $60 billion option on Cursor, and Apple picked a CEO who has literally never made a LinkedIn post. Recorded at 9:30pm Pacific from three time zones, two hemispheres, and one very tired Papa Eric.

EP2: Three Commas Podcast 00:00 Intro — Disneyland, Tequila Brands & The AI Editorial Bot 02:35 Anthropic Passes OpenAI: $30B ARR — Can You Trust the Numbers? 11:56 Claude Mythos Finds 27-Year-Old Bugs — Groundbreaking AI or Just Great PR? 18:06 Meta Mu Spark Launches to Crickets — What Went Wrong 32:00 The SaaS-pocalypse: Multiples Down 70% & Ian Built 25 Tools for $200 39:09 OpenAI's Dumpster Fire: New Yorker Profile + C-Suite Exodus 51:47 Outro — Is OpenAI SoftBank's Uber or WeWork?

00:00 - Intro & weekly roundup 01:07 - Uber invests $1.25B in Rivian for robotaxis 04:17 - Ian: why he stopped caring about cars 06:15 - SpaceX IPO — no lockups, biggest offering ever? 09:28 - Google's TurboQuant: the "Middle Out" compression breakthrough 14:10 - Helium, the Middle East war, and chip supply chains 16:03 - Apple opens Siri to Claude, GPT, and all AI models 18:51 - Kevin: Apple hasn't truly innovated since Steve Jobs 19:48 - Ian's Vision Pro confession (he uses it in bed) 23:04 - JP Morgan launches AI credit default swaps — Big Short vibes 26:41 - OpenAI kills Sora and walks away from a $1B Disney deal 29:35 - Is consumer AI cooked? 34:51 - Claude Mythos leak — is Anthropic about to IPO? 38:16 - SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic: will these IPOs open the floodgates? 42:35 - Manus, China, and what happens when you don't mess with the CCP 49:48 - The podcast is getting a new name — submit your suggestions

Elon admits XAI was "not built right" and needs a full rebuild — bad news for SpaceX investors. Finance bros still won't let go of Bloomberg terminals, and a new poll shows most Americans are skeptical about AI. Meanwhile, Yann LeCun raises $1B for a company with no product, and Ian reveals a matchmaking startup that got 1,000 signups in 5 days with zero funding. 0:00 Intro 1:03 Elon Says XAI Was "Not Built Right" — SpaceX Investors Pay the Price 5:34 Claude Dispatch, Channels & the AI Power-User Lifestyle 10:55 Finance Bros Won't Drop Bloomberg & America's AI Skepticism 20:23 Google Is Quietly Winning the AI Race 24:30 Yann LeCun Raises $1B With No Product — AMI Labs 31:43 Ian Launches "Ian and Friends" — Matchmaking for Global Koreans 38:39 Bootstrap vs. VC: When Founders Say No to Money

This week on Not Investment Advice, Eric, Ian, and Kevin break down the Anthropic vs. OpenAI drama after Trump's DOD labeled Anthropic a supply chain risk — and Sam Altman swooped in to sign the contract hours later. Plus, NVIDIA scales back its AI investments, OpenAI's IPO march raises WeWork comparisons, Apple drops a $499 MacBook aimed at killing Chromebooks, and Cluely's founder admits he lied about revenue. Read Ian's full article: http://thelonggame.vc — 🕐 TIMESTAMPS 0:00 — Intro 1:38 — Anthropic labeled a supply chain risk by the DOD 3:05 — Sam Altman signs DOD contract hours later, ChatGPT boycotts begin 4:55 — "Trump and Altman Made Dario a Martyr" — Ian's breakdown 7:23 — Claude hits #1 in the App Store, accidental marketing win 12:35 — OpenAI backs out of direct checkout in GPT apps 14:59 — Why AI companies keep failing at consumer products 17:42 — Jensen pulls back NVIDIA investment in OpenAI and Anthropic 19:05 — The circular economy problem: vendor financing and systemic risk 23:39 — OpenAI IPO targeting end of 2026 — is it the next WeWork? 28:56 — What this means for Anthropic's IPO timing 34:28 — Apple MacBook Neo: a $499 Trojan Horse to kill Chromebooks 42:46 — Samsung Galaxy S26: better than iPhone? 43:47 — Cluely founder Roy Lee admits he lied about ARR 51:21 — Closing thoughts — 🎙️ Hosts: Eric Bahn, Ian Park, Kevin Jiang 📩 Subscribe for weekly takes on VC, startups, and tech from three investors who don't sugarcoat it. #venturecapital #ai #openai #anthropic #nvidia #apple #startups #vc #tech #podcast

00:05 - Anthropic, DoD, Supply-Chain Risk, and Political Risk for AI Vendors 01:02 - Government Alignment and OpenAI vs. Government Stance 02:27 - Supply Chain Risk and Vendor Diversity 07:27 - Open Letter Discussion and Investor Dynamics 12:56 - Middle Eastern Capital in AI 15:34 - The “Agent Future” and AI Representations 17:11 - AI Clones and Founder Outreach Experiments 23:39 - Personal Updates and AI-Washing 28:05 - Prediction Markets and Insider Trading Concerns 37:03 - Netflix/CNN Media Deals and AI-Native Media 43:32 - Personal Bets and Closing Thoughts

Follow the Hosts: Eric: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ericbahn/ Ian: https://www.linkedin.com/in/park-ian/ Kevin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jiangkevin Chapters * 00:00 Introduction and Catching Up * 21:50 The Advancement of Chinese Robotics and AI * 27:20 Robinhood's Entry into Private Credit * 33:27 Private Credit Market * 40:28 Lucid Motors and EV Industry * 47:12 Venture Capital and Accelerators * 58:13 Social Media and Addiction

Follow the Hosts: Eric: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ericbahn/ Ian: https://www.linkedin.com/in/park-ian/ Kevin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jiangkevin 00:00 The Exhausting Pace of Silicon Valley News 02:54 Anthropic's Rise and Competition with OpenAI 05:49 The Twitter Culture and Its Impact on AI Leaders 08:40 The Introduction of Ads in AI Models 11:50 The Future of AI: Local Models and Customization 17:47 Kakao's Discounted ChatGPT and Market Dynamics 22:25 Brian Johnson's Immortality Program: A Cult or a Trend? 29:25 The Cult of Longevity 33:10 Cerebras vs Nvidia: The AI Chip Showdown 43:07 The SPV Dilemma in Venture Capital 45:12 AI and the Future of Work: A Cautionary Tale

Follow the Hosts: Eric: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ericbahn/ Ian: https://www.linkedin.com/in/park-ian/ Kevin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jiangkevin 00:00 Super Bowl Predictions and Initial Thoughts 00:58 The SaaS Apocalypse: Market Reactions 05:59 The Future of SaaS Pricing Models 08:40 Elon Musk's Consolidation of Assets 12:07 The Anthropic vs. OpenAI Ad War 18:23 Waymo's Expansion and the Future of Autonomous Vehicles 25:51 The Future of Car Ownership 29:25 Humanoid Robots: Promise and Challenges 35:53 The Rise of Stablecoins in Startups 39:37 Rethinking Revenue Metrics in Startups

EP 7 : SpaceX & XAi, Clawdbot, Claude Cowork, Future of Work Chapters * 00:00 Tech Market Volatility * 05:27 Impact of Automated Excel on Finance * 11:03 Tesla's Business Strategy and SpaceX Merger * 26:29 Voice Interfaces and AI in Technology * 33:32 Literacy Challenges and Reduced Reading * 40:57 AI Bots and Their Impact on Society Follow the Hosts: Eric: https://x.com/ericbahn?lang=en Ian: https://ianpark.vc/ Kevin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jiangkevin/

Chapters - 00:00 Early Morning Podcast - 05:10 Comparing Brex and Ramp - 12:10 OpenAI and Trillion-Dollar Valuations - 18:46 Anthropic and Valuation Trends - 24:09 Funding Frenzy in the Tech Industry - 35:36 Strategies of Tech Giants Follow the Hosts: Eric: https://x.com/ericbahn?lang=en Ian: https://ianpark.vc/ Kevin: @jiangkevin

In this New Year 2026 episode, Eric, Kevin, and Ian kick off the season with a wide‑ranging conversation on Sam Altman’s circular investing and OpenAI conflicts, Google Gemini’s “personal intelligence,” on‑device AI and voice interfaces, Meta’s acquisition of Manis, and whether 2026 will be the year of mega IPOs and overhyped “AGI” claims. [00:00]Intro: CES, Koreans in Vegas, and networking vs. real tech [02:00]Sam Altman’s BCI startup & OpenAI conflict of interest [09:30]Circular investing, mega‑founder “camps,” and normalization of conflicts [15:30] Google Gemini “personal intelligence” and privacy backlash [21:30] Security gap and need for stronger authentication [24:30]Apple, Gemini on iPhone, and the “fast follower” strategy [29:30]Whisper Notes, on‑device AI, and voice interfaces [34:30] Meta acquires Manus: agents, geopolitics, and China–US tension [40:00] Why sell a hot AI agent startup for “only” ~$2B? [44:30] 2026 “Mega IPO” year? SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic & Databricks [50:30]Staying private vs. going public, and VC fund incentives [55:30] Inflection/“Mira” drama and the risks of team‑only mega rounds [1:02:00] Sequoia’s “AGI year” essay and hype frustration [1:08:00]What they’re excited about in 2026 & sign‑off 🔑 Key Takeaways Sam Altman & conflicts: OpenAI’s investment into Sam’s own BCI startup symbolizes how mega‑founders can blur governance lines, echoing SoftBank‑style circular deals and normalizing significant conflicts of interest. Personal AI vs. privacy: Gemini’s deep integration across Google products shows how powerful “personal intelligence” can be, but also why security, opt‑in design, and cultural attitudes to privacy will determine mainstream adoption. On‑device AI & agents: Cheap, small models (e.g., Whisper Notes) plus voice interfaces point toward a future where on‑device agents hold your private context and act autonomously on your behalf across work and life. Geopolitics & AI talent: Meta’s Manus deal illustrates how Chinese founders are moving to places like Singapore to access U.S. capital and exit markets amid a tightening China–US tech divide. IPOs, mega‑funds & AGI hype: 2026 could see marquee AI IPOs pushed by mega‑VC liquidity needs, even as many AI companies remain unprofitable and public investors remain cautious; alongside this, AGI rhetoric is increasingly seen as marketing rather than a meaningful technical milestone. Disclaimer: This content is for entertainment purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

(01:00) K-Beauty Boom, (12:55) OpenAI invests in Thrive, (24:52) New form factor for AI (Zuck’s New Bet) (36:55) Sachs vs NYT Follow the Hosts: Eric: https://x.com/ericbahn?lang=en Ian: https://ianpark.vc/ Kevin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jiangkevin/

In this pre-Thanksgiving episode, Eric, Kevin, and Ian break down Nvidia's earnings, the looming Private Credit bubble, and why Google’s Gemini 3 might finally win the AI race. They also debate Cursor’s $2.3B valuation, expose the misuse of "ARR" metrics by startups, and discuss the internal turmoil at Sequoia Capital. 00:00 - Intro: VC hibernation mode 01:26 - Nvidia Earnings & AI Bubble anxiety 03:53 - The Private Credit Bubble explained 08:49 - Gemini 3: Why Google will win 14:00 - Excel vs. Google Sheets debate 18:40 - Cursor’s $2.3B valuation & multiples 23:45 - The AI Retention problem 26:10 - The "ARR" Lie: Why metrics are misleading 31:27 - GenSpark & VCs chasing hype 35:11 - Sequoia Capital: Turnover & missed deals 39:09 - Why VCs are behind on tech 42:56 - Mega Funds vs. Emerging Managers 45:34 - Outro 🔑 Key Takeaways Private Credit Risks: Lack of diligence is creating a "subprime" risk in corporate debt. Google's Advantage: Vertical integration (Chips + Cloud + Apps) gives Gemini the long-term edge. Metric Manipulation: Investors need to look past "ARR" (Annualized Revenue Runway) and check actual contracts. VC Shakeups: Even top firms like Sequoia aren't immune to leadership turnover and missed opportunities. Disclaimer: This content is for entertainment purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

In this week’s episode of Not Investment Advice, Eric, Kevin, and Ian break down the most important tech and AI stories from the past few weeks in Silicon Valley. As always, this show reflects our personal views and is not investment advice. 00:00 – Introduction 00:35 – Why Silicon Valley news cycles feel faster 02:10 – AI-generated music reaches Billboard #1 05:10 – Personalization and the rise of consumer AI music tools 06:45 – The Pope’s statement on AI and healthcare ethics 09:45 – Human connection vs AI interaction 11:00 – The future of relationships in an AI-driven world 13:00 – Legal AI: Harvey raises at an $8B valuation 16:40 – AI margins: OpenAI vs Anthropic 20:30 – Token costs, price wars, and switching friction 24:10 – LLM memory and user lock-in 26:05 – Gemini vs ChatGPT: workflow differences 30:40 – Yann LeCun leaves Meta to launch an AI startup 33:10 – How much capital he could raise today 36:20 – Founder energy and late-career entrepreneurship 38:10 – CLUE, virality, and the limits of hype 42:30 – Retention, product value, and competitive note-taking apps 44:10 – McKinsey’s AI 2025 report: enterprise adoption status 47:40 – Sequoia leadership transition and industry rumors 51:35 – Closing thoughts & next episode preview

In the inaugural episode of "Not Investment Advice," emerging managers Eric Bahn, Ian Park, and Kevin Jiang, VCs of Asian descent, tackle representation and cultural barriers in Silicon Valley before diving into the week's hottest market debates. Topics include the legitimacy of prediction markets (Koshi/PolyMarket), the AI infrastructure "bubble" theory (trillion-dollar commitments and model convergence), the hyper-competitive AI talent war (billion-dollar contracts and the rise of the agent), and the profound threat of Sora deepfakes on intellectual property, public trust, and identity (Worldcoin, virtual actors). 00:00:00 Podcast Introduction and Identity 00:09:49 Discussion on Prediction Markets and Gambling 00:19:20 AI Data Center Investments and Market Bubble Concerns 00:30:41 AI Talent Compensation and Industry Impact 00:48:31 Sora, Deepfakes, and the Future of Reality 00:54:25 Host Introductions and Podcast Closing