Pressure Points

The reason why shares of $AAPL are not up more is investors wonder if the new Siri can power an encore to iPhone super cycle that wraps up this quarter. I believe the answer is yes. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

The bottom line on the capex outlook, we’re early in the AI buildout. Three of the four hyperscalers hiked their AI spending outlook. I expect in CY26 will come in up closer to 80% vs. up Street expectations of up 64% going into tonight. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Meta can’t shake the capex bears. Growth of 33% was better than the whisper of 32%. Guided June to 28% vs. Street at 25%. Investors opted instead to focus on capex growth this year going to 93% growth compared to previous expectations of 73%. I see the concern overblown. Meta has shown they can meaningfully accelerate revenue from capex. March of 25 it was up 16%. This June it will grow 28% plus. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Investors shrugged off the higher capex guide for 2027 because Google Cloud is gaining meaningful marketshare, and Search is at an “expansionary moment” which means Search growth this year will be closer to 17% vs. the Street currently at 13%. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Postive comments about Azure growing at 40% in June vs 39% in March was offset by them talking about the elephant in the room, the need for a new monetization model for software that is usage based. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Sounds like they’re keeping capex outlook unchanged. Up 48% y/y in CY26 compared to up 59% in CY25. The kicker is outside of AWS, they still have not had their AI moment. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Shares of TSLA sold off on the increased capex comments. It should have traded up because it supports the company’s long-term vision. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Tim crushed it as CEO of Apple. Ternus has an opportunity to supercharge Apple’s multiple by changing the narrative, which is the biggest opportunity in big tech. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

For the deep dive on our SpaceX Is Building the World’s First Sovereign AI thesis, check out Doug Clinton and I on Pressure Points. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Beyond the headline of next week’s Tesla deliveries is the reality that the EV business is in a better place today than two years ago. Big Auto made big cuts to EV investment over that time, and that gives Tesla a bigger opportunity, especially in the US where we don’t have BYD. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Bottom line from Jensen’s keynote: Demand is measurably stronger than even the highest expectations, and investors are still having a hard time getting comfortable with that. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Reflecting on Apple’s upcoming 50th birthday reveals why the company will continue to be successful. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

The new MacBook Neo should add 0.5% to overall revenue for the next year. I believe it won't impact margins. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

The new Mac’s announced today add color to Cook’s “range of options to deal with margins”. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

The new Apple products should translate into a modest upside for June quarter revenue. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Three takeaways on Nvidia:1. The stock being down 1% underscores that investors’ long term growth concerns remain.2. The fundamentals and outlook came in better than elevated whisper numbers.3. Most importantly, the guidance reinforces just how early we are in AI. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Google's business and growth outlook is rock solid. Shares sold off on the massive CapEx guide, comments on rising depreciation impacting earnings, and unknowns around quarter-to-quarter Cloud growth. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Why is Apple up only 1% despite a much better-than-expected December quarter and March guide? The explanation begins in June 2024. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

The fact that Tesla is disclosing FSD subscriptions is all you need to know about its progress. That progress makes Robotaxi expansion a reality.  This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

We’re 4% of the way into 2026, and the fundamentals of AI infrastructure are tracking above expectations. Next stop: hyperscalers’ capex guidance in two weeks. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Apple’s leadership shake-up comes while there’s still plenty of time for Apple to nail AI. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Good news for Apple investors: Apple has a new head of AI. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

While the market is sour on Nvidia in the near-term, the potential of restarting the China business would be sweet. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

It was a good day for Elon and Tesla shareholders. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Below the headlines, the Amazon investment story is about automation & AWS improving margins. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

All signs point to a strong finish to the year for Apple. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Microsoft was the least eventful of the three reporting tonight. December revenue guidance was in line with the Street, a slight disappointment, but the big picture remains intact. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Meta shares are down on a flipped script — expenses are now growing faster than revenue. That said, it’s the right decision to position the company to capitalize on AI’s potential. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Bravo to Google for accelerating Search in the face of chatbots. Sounds like the momentum will continue.P.S. My prediction: Waymo IPO in 2027. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Big-picture takeaway from Google, Meta, and Microsoft earnings: The mojo AI trade took a step back, while the fundamentals took a step forward. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

I believe Jensen is suggesting about 15% upside to revenue over the next 5 quarters. The stock’s up only 4% on that likely because there are enough moving parts to keep investors from taking his comments to the bank. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Since OpenAI launched Atlas, shares of GOOG are up 6.2%, compared with the Nasdaq, which is up 1.1%. Brian and I have been using it this week and concluded that while the agent mode is unreliable, it gets smarter over time and has huge potential. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Tesla's big picture is still intact and they have plenty of cash to get there. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Cook’s time in China underscores he’s the master of navigating geopolitics and that Apple’s manufacturing shift to India will be slower than some expect.PS: There’s a bonus at the end of the video: Good news continues on iPhone lead times. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Here’s the Tesla earnings preview. Numbers are going down next year, but that's ok because it's all about autonomy. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Below the surface, China US trade talks is about rare earth and GPUs. In the end, coming to an agreement is in everyone’s best interest. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

NHTSA's probe validates Tesla’s lead. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

September deliveries of 497k were well ahead of the 475k high-end of the whisper, up 7% y/y after being down 13% in June and March. I believe the vast majority of the upside was driven by a 35% quarter over quarter jump in US sales from the tax credit, which in theory means investors should largely throw out the positive number. My "throw it out" logic misses a bigger point; the future will be autonomy and the ability to get EV units in the market profitably is a key competitive advantage. On that measure, the September deliveries are a long-term win for the company. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

The AI train continues to roll. MU guided to 43% Y/Y revenue growth vs. just reported 46%. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

The Nvidia - OpenAI deal is just the latest salvo in an big tech arms race that is far from peaking. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

I would have had INTC up 5-10% on today's Nvidia investment news. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

How big of a week is this for iPhone? It’s been 12 years since a comparable iOS update and 11 years since a similar hardware refresh. That’s good news for iPhone growth in FY26. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

While Elon’s $1B investment in Tesla is small in context, his loyalty to the stock over the years has been significant. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

iPhone sales following the form factor, and we got more than expected good news on that front. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Big picture: Nvidia's outlook was better than expected. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

This was a big night for AI. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

META Pressure Point: For Zuckerberg, it’s all about superintelligence. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

The Nvidia H20 news is a tell for the AI buildout; We’re earlier in the than most think. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Now that Elon has inched up the Robotaxi bar, investors are recalibrating autonomy milestones. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com