The Algebris Podcast

China is advancing at exceptional speed in AI, robotics, biotech, green transition, electric vehicles, and other key innovation sectors. Its cost advantage versus the US is enormous, while performance remains highly competitive. The main drag on the economy has been the long adjustment after the property bubble burst, which has weighed on local consumption. However, over the next two to three years this pressure may normalize, while the “new China” continues to accelerate. At the same time, Chinese equities trade at a significant discount to global markets and offer higher dividend yields. For this reason, China, especially through Hong Kong, is an underappreciated long-term opportunity in global portfolios.Listen to Davide Serra (Founder & CEO, Algebris Investments) in his latest analysis. 

The key variable for markets is the duration of the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. A short conflict would likely result in only temporary oil price volatility, allowing markets to return to previous levels. However, a prolonged disruption could impact the Gulf region, which represents roughly 20% of global oil supply, potentially creating a physical deficit and triggering stagflation through lower growth and higher inflation. Markets have reacted quickly, but the moves so far remain relatively limited, suggesting further downside risk for risky assets. With investor positioning still very long after a strong two-year rally, the current shock may represent the early phase of a broader period of volatility.

The central macro message from the 2026 World Economic Forum in Davos is that the US may be moving away from the post-war order, forcing other nations to reinvest in defence and economic resilience.Global growth remains strong, supported by large fiscal deficits, but that also keeps the door open to a resurgence of inflation. AI-led capex is significant and may be outpacing the realistic revenue opportunity by 2030, which could challenge current market pricing. Investors are also leaning further into global diversification, especially given a more unpredictable US policy backdrop and expectations for a weaker dollar.We favour financials on yield-curve dynamics and operational leverage from early AI adoption, and we see gold as increasingly supported by central-bank demand and the search for politically independent reserves.Listen to Davide Serra's notes from the World Economic Forum 2026. 

Over the last few months the global economy has held up thanks to strong U.S. fiscal stimulus and widespread deficits elsewhere, but for the first time public debt worldwide is around 100% of global GDP, reducing governments’ room to respond to future shocks.Nearly all asset classes look expensive and U.S. rate cuts are already priced in; moreover, Washington appears to be overstimulating the economy, partly with an eye on next year’s midterm elections.There is also exuberance around AI: to justify current valuations, roughly $2 trillion of additional revenues would be needed by 2030—an implausibly large figure compared with the current revenues of the “Magnificent Seven.”This and other takeaways in Davide Serra's (Founder and CEO, Algebris Investments) latest analysis.

Markets have adapted to a new, less orthodox economic order, supported by expansionary fiscal policies and more accommodative central banks. Artificial intelligence is seen as the main driver of growth, although for now its impact remains more perceived than real.On the geopolitical front, the Middle East appears more stable, while challenges between the United States, Russia and China remain unresolved. In Europe, initial enthusiasm for German fiscal policy has waned, with growth still weak.In the latest Algebris podcast, Gabriele Foà (Global Credit Portfolio Manager) – interviewed by Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development UK) – highlights the fiscal deterioration of advanced countries and predicts an era of “financial repression”, in which government yields will remain close to inflation. In this context, credit offers interesting opportunities, provided a selective approach is taken.(Episode recorded on 29th October 2025)

A single query on ChatGPT can consume up to 10 times the energy of a traditional search, highlighting the urgent need to address infrastructural and environmental challenges.Datacentres currently account for around 2% of global energy demand, with estimates pointing to further growth. Key issues to be addressed include shortages in the electricity grid, physical space and adequate cooling systems. From energy producers to advanced technology providers: what and where are the investment opportunities in this context?In the new episode of the Algebris podcast, Simone Ragazzi (Global Equity Portfolio Manager), Iacopo Esposito and Antonio Focella (Analysts) from the global equity team explore the topic of datacentres and their growing energy impact, driven by the development of artificial intelligence, interviewed by Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development UK).

The United States is facing growing uncertainty due to rising tariffs and a projected $10 trillion in debt issuance, which is pressuring markets and weakening confidence in the dollar. Investors are increasingly hedging as they doubt the administration’s commitment to stable, growth-oriented policies. In contrast, Europe is experiencing a revival, led by Germany's industrial policy shift that is attracting capital, with financials offering compelling value and strong dividends. China is also emerging as an undervalued opportunity, signaling renewed support for the private sector and presenting a strong investment case compared to the U.S. Overvaluation of the dollar and massive Treasury issuance are driving diversification into euros and yen, with a favorable macro backdrop for financial equities and credit.Listen to Davide Serra (Founder and CEO, Algebris Investments) in his latest analysis. 

On 2 April, Trump announced a new set of “reciprocal” tariffs to strengthen the US economy, signalling a significant shift in global economic policy. What happens now?Davide Serra, Founder and CEO of Algebris Investments, explains what tariffs really mean for investors around the world and what to expect from the Fed and the markets in the upcoming months.

The Trump 2 administration has shifted the focus from Wall Street to Main Street, with active tax policies and tariffs to protect domestic industry, while increasing uncertainty and risks. Markets are in correction territory and growth is showing signs of slowing, with data calling for caution and increasing uncertainty. Markets have reacted with the underperformance of US equity and reallocation towards Europe and China. In fixed income, government remains volatile, while credit still offers opportunities, with a selective approach. This and more in the latest Algebris podcast with Gabriele Foà (Global Credit Portfolio Manager) and Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development UK). The episode was recorded on 27 March 2025.

With obesity rates soaring and GLP-1 weight-loss drugs revolutionising the pharmaceutical space, what does this mean for investors? How are traditional food companies adapting to a world where consumers are prioritizing health over convenience?Silvia Merler (Head of ESG & Policy Research), Simone Ragazzi (Global Equity Portfolio Manager), and Iacopo Esposito (Analyst) join us to break down the key insights from the latest Clean Alpha note, Appetite for Destruction, and explore where the biggest opportunities and risks—lie in this evolving landscape.

"You wouldn't be doing your fiduciary duty as an investor if you decided to ignore the financial sector altogether because you are afraid of what’s happened in the past. It has really turned a new leaf; it is completely different—it's a totally compelling, different investment case."Listen to our latest podcast with Benjie Creelan Sandford (Financial Equity Analyst), Bruno Duarte (Financial Credit Portfolio Manager), interviewed by Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development UK) from Algebris Investments.

Women are more likely to have lower incomes compared to men, a disparity rooted in systemic inequalities in the labor market and societal roles.Lower incomes over the life cycle and interrupted career trajectories have profound consequences on women’s financial security, especially in old age as the income gap directly translates into a pension gap. One way to empower women towards the late stages of their career and retirement is to provide returns to their savings by supporting them in their investment journeys. Listen to the latest Algebris podcast with Silvia Merler (Head of ESG & Policy Research), Simone Ragazzi (Global Equity Portfolio Manager), Elisa Natali (Equity Analyst) and Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development UK)

In 2024, the markets tried to guess what the world would look like after the big rate hikes of 2022-23. In April there was talk of ‘higher for longer’. Growth held, inflation held, and central banks were cautious. In August, the US labour market showed signs of weakening and the markets called for cuts. The focus of central banks has therefore shifted from inflation to growth. While the Fed faces a resilient US economy and will have to be cautious in its round of cuts, in Europe the ECB will have to cut to cope with an economic slowdown, albeit not a recession. In the latest Algebris podcast, this and an analysis on the upcoming US elections and the delicate situation in the Middle East. Listen to Gabriele Foà (Global Credit Portfolio Manager) and Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development UK). https://www.algebris.com/podcast/its-not-easy-like-sunday-morning/

In Europe the economy is slowing, the ECB is behind the curve and will need to cut rates; meanwhile, the US economy is growing faster and deficit won't come down anytime soon. Also, a look at the economy in Japan and China.After a month of meetings with entrepreneurs and bankers around the world, listen to Davide Serra (Founder and CEO, Algebris Investments) on the latest developments in global markets.https://www.algebris.com/podcast/interest-rates-check-up/ Visit https://www.algebris.com/disclaimer/ for important information about this podcast.

In their latest Clean Alpha | Not just another brick in the wall report, the global equity team at Algebris explains the benefits of advanced technology in building construction and renovation, and the investment opportunities in the sector.Future buildings will be structures that minimise their environmental impact and enhance the health and wellbeing of their occupants. They will use less energy, water, and materials, and produce less waste and greenhouse gas emissions than conventional buildings. They will also provide better indoor air quality, thermal comfort, and natural lighting.Listen to the latest Algebris podcast with Silvia Merler (Head of ESG & Policy Research), Simone Ragazzi (Portfolio Manager) and Antonio Focella (Equity Analyst), interviewed by Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development UK).

Over the recent days, global markets have been in turmoil, with the Japanese stock market taking the hardest hit on Monday, followed however by a significant rebound on Tuesday. What happened and what does it mean for investors? Listen to Davide Serra, Founder and CEO of Algebris Investments, on the movements that took place in the markets, Asia and global economy.

In their latest report Clean Alpha | Seeds of change: from the plough to the cloud, the global equity team at Algebris explains how agriculture is fundamental to the survival and prosperity of the human species.When we think of agriculture, we probably have in mind farmers with a tractor and a plough. In reality, there is a very different kind of agriculture, namely precision agriculture, which puts data at the service of farms. What does this mean? Real-time monitoring of a field's weather and productivity and better decision-making systems for farmers; all of which translates into better yields and investment opportunities. Listen to the latest Algebris podcast with Silvia Merler (Head of ESG & Policy Research) and Simone Ragazzi (Portfolio Manager), interviewed by Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development). 

In the latest update from Davide Serra (Algebris Investments, Founder and CEO) following his recent trip to Asia, we hear about the global economic views of CEOs and policy makers in the region: covering the recovery in China, the region's strong focus on the US dollar and the role of a risk averse European economy.

How did the events of 2023 impact global financials? What do interest rate expectations mean for banks? And how are banks faring in early 2024?In this podcast, Douglas Branson, Head of Business Development at Algebris and Benjie Creelan Sandford, Equity analyst at Algebris, discuss the banking sector and outline the opportunities in financial equities.

The US is running a 'hot' economy, Japan is showing signs of growth, Europe is stagnating and China is facing structural problems.Against this backdrop of positive growth and recovering volumes, especially from a credit perspective, we expect rates to remain at 3-4% in the US and 2-3% in Europe: the financial sector could offer interesting returns, with stocks offering attractive dividends. Also in the bond market, the financial sector offers value, while the rest should be selected carefully.Find out more in the latest update from Davide Serra, Founder and CEO of Algebris.

In our report Clean Alpha | Don't waste the opportunity, we reference the Disney movie Wall-E, the children's tale about the last robot on Earth, forced to clean up and sort out the endless mountains of waste abandoned by mankind.As investors, we see this sector as a relevant long-term opportunity. Listen to the latest podcast with with Silvia Merler (Head of ESG & Policy Research, Algebris Investments), Simone Ragazzi (Portfolio Manager, Algebris Investments) and Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development, Algebris Investments).

In out latest Algebris Bullet, we say that the pricing for 2024 has shifted from no landing and potential credit stress to a comforting soft landing, a scenario where central banks cut despite healthy growth.Markets decided we now live in a land of doves.Listen to our latest podcast with Gabriele Foà (Global Credit Portfolio Manager, Algebris Investments) and Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development, Algebris Investments) discussing the key concepts of the bullet.

Over the past few days at the World Economic Forum in Davos, one of the most discussed topics has been the US presidential election and its effects on the market: a potential victory for Donald Trump could have an unclear medium-term impact on geopolitics and barriers for the global economy. Another focus was the Ukraine-Russia conflict, with the Ukrainian front increasingly weakened and more tension between allies, and the role of Europe as a marginal economic power. At the Forum events, all eyes were also on China and India, for their growth in the coming years, and developments in AI. Watch the video in which Davide Serra, Founder and CEO of Algebris, explains the repercussions that what was discussed at Davos will have on the markets.

Davide Serra (Founder and CEO, Algebris Investments) on what is happening in the markets: from the slowdown of Asia's "growth engine" - especially China - and the lower and lower European inflation data prints, to growth figures of the United States. Amidst geopolitical events, adopting a safe approach by extending duration could be a good strategy for investors.

In China, the economy is slowing down. This has global repercussions and the engine of the European economy, Germany, has stalled. In the US, on the other hand, we are seeing the first results of the Inflation Reduction Act: the economy is holding up, despite the remaining high inflation.

Past performance does not predict future returns. The scenarios presented are an estimate of future performance based on evidence from the past on how the value of this investment varies, and/or current market conditions and are not an exact indicator. What you will get will vary depending on how the market performs and how long you keep the investment/product.

We are living in an era of transition, characterised by the increase in relevance of non-financial risks that can, however, have a significant financial impact on a company. Risks related to climate change are a crucial example.In the third episode of our series dedicated to responsible investment, Silvia Merler (Head of ESG & Policy Research, Algebris Investments) analyses the aspects to consider while investing in equity and the reasons why a sustainability analysis must be part of all stages of the investment process.

How can we evaluate if an investment is responsible from an environmental standpoint? What impact can a company have on climate change and vice versa? Listen to Silvia Merler (Head of ESG & Policy Research, Algebris Investments) and Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development, Algebris Investments) in the latest podcast by Algebris Investments where they discuss the concept of Double Materiality and other ways to measure the environmental impacts of a company and its products.

While the US banking crisis seems now contained, it is likely small and medium-sized US banks will experience a new wave of regulation.Moreover, rate hikes may have come to an end: with less availability in credit, inflation looks like is setting to fall. This creates interesting opportunities for investors in fixed income.The real estate sector, on the other hand, might be one of those sector struggling in the future, especially in the US.

Responsible investing, green transition, ESG: what exactly do they mean? What rules must the players in the sector follow and how are the countries across the world acting? Listen to Silvia Merler (Head of ESG & Policy Research, Algebris Investments) and Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development, Algebris Investments).

The past week has seen increasing concern about the health of the banking sector. Following the rescue of Credit Suisse, market participants' attention has shifted to the European banks more widely. Please take a few minutes to listen to our CEO, Davide Serra, on why the European banking sector remains robust.

On March 10th 2023, Silicon Valley Bank (‘SVB’) was taken over by the FDIC, following a wave of deposit outflows. Markets looked at the event as a potentially systemic risk for the US and global banking sector.This has left investors with compelling questions: are there implications in the medium and long term? Is there a risk of contagion?​​​​​​​Listen to Davide Serra, Founder and CEO of Algebris Investments, on these latest developments.

Within Asia, the resilience of Europe was underestimated, and capital is now being redeployed in European assets, which is a positive development for Europe. Also, capital integration in Asian countries is accelerating, with Singapore being the winner.Inflation is decreasing fast and so we believe terminal rates are being priced correctly by the markets, although the reopening of Chinese economy – which can be clearly felt across Asia – could cause a mild spike in inflation later in 2023.Listen to Davide Serra (Founder and CEO, Algebris Investments) talking about the key takeaways from his two weeks in Asia in early 2023.

Banks lost half of their revenue from interest and now these revenues are expected to go up by 20 to 30% over the coming two to three years. Financials are therefore one of the few sectors where profits have expanded and expectations for future profits have gone up.Listen to Sebastiano Pirro (CIO & Financial Credit Portfolio Manager, Algebris Investments)