The PredictIt Podcast

The Supreme Court's Callais decision just reshaped the path to a 2026 House majority. Democrats fell from 87¢ to 79¢ on PredictIt — but the underlying fundamentals (Trump approval, generic ballot, cost-of-living concerns) suggest traders may be overcorrecting.In this episode of The PredictIt Podcast, Jacob Studwell and Garth Juckem cover:SCOTUS Callais decision: cracking vs. packing and what's about to changeDemocrats at 79¢ to take the House: buying opportunity or trap?Trump's approval at lowest tracked, gas at $4.30, no policy turn in sightIran, Operation Freedom, and why Democrats aren't capitalizingRFK Jr. at 49¢: who's the next cabinet member outKevin Warsh whip count: 52-53 votes most likely, 39¢ on the upsideJerome Powell stays on: the most political move of his termSusan Collins flips on Iran War Powers Act — does it move Maine numbers?The "Lobster Man": progressive momentum vs. an entrenched incumbentTrade these markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026PredictIt is a real-money prediction market for U.S. politics. Real markets, real money, individual position caps that protect market integrity.Subscribe: https://youtube.com/@PredictItOfficialX: https://x.com/PredictItPodThis podcast reflects the hosts' personal analysis and is not trading advice.#PredictionMarkets #SCOTUS #Redistricting2026

PredictIt's $3,500 individual position cap is its single biggest differentiator and the recent Polymarket insider trading charge, bouts of political violence, and questions over what place prediction markets place in society proves why caps matter for the integrity of the market.In this episode of The PredictIt Podcast, Jacob Studwell and Garth Juckem cover:White House Correspondents Dinner attempted attack: condemning all political violenceWes Moore on Bill Maher: "I could bet against myself for $4M"The case for prediction market caps: why $3,500 limits matterKevin Warsh Fed chair confirmation: whip count at 53 or 54?Trade these markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026Subscribe: https://youtube.com/@PredictItOfficialX: https://x.com/PredictItPodThis podcast reflects the hosts' personal analysis and is not trading advice.#PredictionMarkets #PredictIt #FedChair

Virginia's April 21 redistricting referendum could flip up to 4 House seats and reshape the 2026 midterms. We break down where PredictIthave it priced and whether the data should scare traders holding Yes at 85 cents.In this episode of PredictIt Official, Jacob Studwell and Garth Juckem cover:00:00 — The national popular vote compact hits 222 electoral votes04:30 — Senate 2026 market vs. S&P 500: why traders are pricing in a Democratic Senate07:30 — Taking an Iranian cargo ship: the Middle East ceasefire that isn't holding12:00 — Nostradamus predictions for 2026 — grading him four months in21:30 — Virginia redistricting referendum: 6-10% margin or wider?25:00 — Kevin Warsh Fed chair confirmation: will DOJ drama kill it?27:30 — Will Corey Mills leave the House before May?Trade these markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026Subscribe: https://youtube.com/@PredictItOfficialX: https://x.com/PredictItPodDisclosure: Jacob Studwell is Growth Engagement Officer at PredictIt. This podcast reflects the hosts' personal analysis and is not trading advice.#PredictionMarkets #VirginiaRedistricting #Politics2026

Jacob and Garth cover the potential expulsion of Tony Gonzalez and Eric Swalwell, the California governor's race. We also delve into the Maine Senate race and the potential impact of a major hurricane on the election.* 00:00 Swalwell's Dropout Fallout* 11:50 JD's Tough Week* 19:15 Impact of Hurricane Season* 24:40 Maine Senate Race DynamicsTrade now: https://bit.ly/predictit2026

Chad Peace of the Independent Voter Project joins Jacob to break down why 45% of registered voters are independent — and why both parties are structurally built to ignore them. They dig into California's nonpartisan primary, the Texas open primary fight, why independents aren't moderates, and what all of it means for 2026.Trade now on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026

Legendary pollster John Zogby joins Jacob to break down his latest generic ballot showing the two parties at a dead heat — directly contradicting polls giving Democrats a clear 2026 advantage. They dig into Trump's approval, public support for the Iran conflict, and what independent voters are thinking ahead of 2026.Plus: John plays PredictIt's Buy, Sell, Hold weighing in on Pete Buttigieg, Cory Booker, AOC's Senate vs. President decision, and Democratic control of the Senate. Trade now: https://bit.ly/predictit2026

Trump's poll numbers are moving in the wrong direction and this week, Jacob and Garth break down exactly what the latest data is telling us. Also this week:Recent Iran updates and what this may mean for the Republicans in the midtermsIndependent Senate candidates making noise in Nebraska and Montana — and whether they have a real shotTrump's Truth Social posts about Robert Mueller...Whether you trade on PredictIt or just want sharp political analysis without the spin, Jacob and Garth give you the data-driven take you won't get anywhere else.Trade on today's political outcomes at PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026

Jacob and Garth recap Garth's recent trip, where we're at in the war in Iran and how that's affecting the House, Senate, and any individual races during primary season. The team also dives deep into new Ohio Governor and Senate polling and then it's last call for the Democratic Senate Primary race to name a Dick Durbin successor!Trade Now on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026

Garth, Ethan, and Jacob give a comprehensive recap of the Noem firing, how to keep her out of South Dakota through March, Texas recaps including grading traders performances on both sides of the aisle, and an update to the Iran War timeline put everything in play for the Democrats come November: Trade Now - https://bit.ly/predictit2026

Garth and Jacob discuss all the different ways the strikes and ongoing conflict in Iran could affect Trump's approval ratings, gas prices, midterms turnout, Congress War Powers resolutions, and also the Texas Primaries tomorrow!

Jacob and Garth discuss the SCOTUS tariff ruling from Friday, what this means for the Presidency and Alito's expected retirement, Texas Early voting reporting, Trade Talk on the State of the Union and Noem's next job? We end with a new segment on the California Governor's Race: Campaign, Elect, Sign, Reject, Recall (our spin on FMK) - Trade now with us: https://bit.ly/predictit2026

Ethan Rosen from PredictIt's Markets team joins the pod to discuss the process behind creating markets, writing rules, limiting settlement ambiguity and his thoughts on the SAVE Act headlines. We also discuss the most likely to flip Senate races, Texas' Primaries in 3 weeks and Ethan's best buys (and sells).Trade Now - https://bit.ly/predictit2026

Garth and Jacob are back to discuss another impending government shutdown, Garth's $1500 loss, new Texas polling, and maybe the Superbowl? But really just Trump's tweet about the halftime show.https://bit.ly/predictit2026

Bradley Tusk joins Jacob for an interview ranging from his pitch for Mobile Voting to advice for AOC, predicting NY House races, and whether or not Gavin Newsom is the eventual Democratic Nominee in 2028.Trade Bradley's picks here: https://bit.ly/predictit2026

Jacob interviews Anthony Vinci, author of 'The Fourth Intelligence Revolution.' They discuss the implications of AI in intelligence, the chaos of information in the digital age, parenting in a world of misinformation, and the future of social media regulations. Vinci shares insights on his AI model, Vico, and its applications in predictive markets and political forecasting and makes a bunch of predictions of his own.

Jacob and Garth provide a guide to the March Primaries reviewing the Texas Senate races, most interesting House races, and the Illinois Democratic Primary for Dick Durbin's seat in the Senate.

Jacob and Garth discuss Jacob's trade on the Senate War Powers Resolution last week, Steve Bannon potential run in 2028, the DOJ's recent action with the Fed, and the main topic today: Will Trump leave office early for any reason?

Jacob and Garth review the basics on www.predictit.org:What are Prediction Markets?How do you use PredictIt?What moves markets?They also kickoff their 2025 trading challenge with a bang!

Jacob rounds up the news solo this week from Venezuela to the New York Gubernatorial Race and over to the fallout from TPUSA's America fest and the extremely early 2028 posturing on all sides.

Garth and Jacob get eclectic in this episode from Trump's proposed rescheduling of marijuana to the Maine Senate Primary to Candace Owens, Erika Kirk, and Turning Point USA all the way to Texas' Senate Primaries on both the Democratic and Republican sides - tune in for the best look at the Prediction Markets! https://bit.ly/predictit2025

Jacob and Garth discuss what Nostradamus has on tap for us in 2026 and make some predictions of their own. They also talk redistricting, Texas races, and the current odds of JD Vance to become the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2028.

Jacob and Garth discuss Andy Beshear's endorsement of Janet Mills, Kash Patel and Pete Hegseth's likelihood to leave their positions, Bowser not running for DC Mayor again, potential for ANOTHER government shutdown in February and a deep dive on the Tennessee 7th District's Special Election.

Victoria Worley joins Jacob and Garth to discuss redistricting effects across the country and then sticks around for a way-too-early draft of 2028 Democratic Nominees...and the draft gets wonky quick!

Jacob and Garth discuss Trump's Epstein Files vote flip, the Cabinet's latest news, SCOTUS Tarriff market, the economy's affect on 2026 midterm markets and the fallout from Chile's first round Presidential Election

Jacob and Garth discuss the Election Day 2025 fallout, Prediction Markets in context, and the Government Shutdown featuring the following markets: Which party will win the House in the 2026 election?When will Trump sign a bill to end the shutdown?Will the House pass a bill or resolution by Nov. 21 asking for Epstein files?Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker of the House through the 119th Congress?