Trading Global Macro Podcast

Trading Global Macro Podcast – Ep. 23In this episode of the Trading Global Macro Podcast, John Kicklighter and Matt Weller examine the growing divergence between Wall Street and Main Street. With the S&P 500 hitting record highs while consumer sentiment falls to historic lows, they break down the drivers behind this disconnect, including corporate profitability, pricing power, and consumer pressures.The discussion explores whether this gap is sustainable, what factors could force convergence, and how traders and investors should interpret conflicting signals in today’s macro environment. Other general topics include: 🔷 S&P 500 at record highs vs. University of Michigan consumer sentiment at record lows🔷 Why corporate earnings remain strong despite macro uncertainty🔷 How companies are passing costs (tariffs, fuel) onto consumers🔷 The role of AI in boosting efficiency while increasing consumer anxiety🔷 Limitations and distortions in consumer sentiment surveys🔷 Why Wall Street and Main Street must eventually convergeBe sure to like, subscribe, and follow for weekly insights into the global forces driving FX, equities, commodities, interest rates, and more.

Trading Global Macro Podcast – Ep. 22In this episode of the Trading Global Macro Podcast from StoneX, Matt Weller and John Kicklighter are joined by Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX, for a deep dive into the evolving Federal Reserve backdrop. The conversation explores the likely transition from Jerome Powell, the implications of a more politically charged Fed, and whether markets are underestimating the risks tied to weakening institutional credibility. Vincent also examines why inflation may remain structurally above the Fed’s stated 2% target, how shifting inflation measures can shape policy narratives, and why a divided central bank could create more uncertainty across rates, equities, and broader risk assets. The discussion also touches on the Fed’s balance sheet, the tension between optics and economic reality, and why “higher for longer” may still be the default path into 2026. In this episode: 🔷 The likely transition from Jerome Powell to Kevin Warsh and what it could mean for Fed policy🔷 Whether political pressure on the Fed is changing the institution🔷 Why inflation may remain closer to 3–4% in practice🔷 The debate around the Fed’s balance sheet and market distortion🔷 What a less credible or more divided Fed could mean for equities and rates🔷 Vincent’s view on where policy may be headed by the end of 2026 Be sure to like, subscribe, and follow for weekly insights into the global forces driving FX, equities, commodities, interest rates, and more.

Trading Global Macro Podcast – Ep. 21In this episode of the Trading Global Macro Podcast from StoneX, Matt Weller and John Kicklighter examine how the escalating US-Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are reshaping the global macro outlook for 2026.The conversation focuses on one of the biggest questions facing markets right now: are central banks done cutting rates, and could some be forced to turn more hawkish again? Matt and John break down the inflation implications of rising energy prices, the risk of broader supply-chain pass-through effects, and why policymakers may be increasingly concerned about keeping inflation expectations anchored.They also explore: 🔷Why oil and fertilizer disruptions matter for inflation 🔷How the Bank of England, ECB, Fed, RBA, and BOJ compare on the hawk-dove spectrum 🔷Why markets have shifted from pricing rate cuts to considering possible hikes 🔷The growing tension between inflation risks and slowing economic activity 🔷What this means for FX, fixed income, equities, and broader risk sentimentBe sure to like, subscribe, and follow for weekly insights into the global forces driving FX, equities, commodities, interest rates, and more.

Trading Global Macro Podcast – Ep. 20In this episode of the Trading Global Macro Podcast from StoneX, John Kicklighter and Matt Weller examine the so-called “TACO trade” associated to US President Donald Trump, which describes the idea that controversial policies are reversed when markets push back.While the acronym may be associated to the controversial US President, it may not be all that unusual historically nor that necessarily detrimental. They discuss historical corollaries in: 🔷 The UK mini budget crisis that ousted a Prime Minister🔷 A reversal of support for Lehman Brothers during the Great Financial Crisis🔷 ECB President Mario Draghi's 'whatever it takes' commitment to EURUSD below 1.40🔷 The Swiss National Bank's abandonment of a core policy of a 1.20 floor on EURCHF🔷 The open-ended influence of the so-called 'Fed Put'Be sure to like, subscribe, and follow for weekly insights into the global forces driving FX, equities, commodities, interest rates, and more.

Trading Global Macro Podcast – Ep. 19In this episode of the Trading Global Macro Podcast, Matt Weller and John Kicklighter break down sentiment as the “third leg of the stool” alongside fundamentals and technicals, and explore how emotions, expectations, and positioning can amplify trends, reversals, and volatility.They walk through a practical framework for evaluating sentiment indicators, including:🔷 Why some popular “sentiment” gauges (like CNN’s Fear & Greed Index) may be closer to technical proxies🔷 The pros and cons of survey-based measures like the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey🔷 The promises, and limitations, of prediction markets (e.g., Kalshi/Polymarket)🔷 Positioning and leverage indicators like FINRA margin debt and why context matters🔷 The Commitment of Traders (COT) report and why it’s a favorite for identifying extremes (with timing limitations)🔷 Retail sentiment tools (like broker positioning data) and how to use them responsibly🔷 “Interest gauges” such as Google Trends and how AI might help structure unstructured sentiment signalsBe sure to like, subscribe, and follow for weekly insights into the global forces driving FX, equities, commodities, interest rates, and more.

Trading Global Macro Podcast – Ep. 18In this episode of the Trading Global Macro Podcast, John Kicklighter and Matt Weller take a deep dive into one of the most persistent market questions of recent years: when is the next recession, and how can markets actually see it coming?The discussion explores the strengths and shortcomings of commonly cited recession indicators, including leading economic indicators, official recession definitions, and market-based signals. John and Matt examine why some indicators have repeatedly warned of recession without one materializing, and why relying on a single signal can be misleading in the current economic cycle.Themes covered:🔷 What defines a recession in the U.S. and who decides🔷 Why leading economic indicators have sent repeated false signals🔷 The role of services versus manufacturing in assessing economic health🔷 Market-based indicators, including equity ratios and yield curve spreads🔷 Why no single indicator is sufficient and what would shift recession riskBe sure to like, subscribe, and follow for weekly insights into the global forces driving FX, equities, commodities, interest rates, and more.

Trading Global Macro Podcast – Ep. 17 In this episode of the Trading Global Macro Podcast, Matt Weller and John Kicklighter explore what it means for an economy to become a “pariah” in global markets. From extreme cases like Iran, Venezuela, and Argentina to more nuanced historical examples such as Italy, the UK in the 1970s, and modern-day China, the discussion examines how credibility, policy stability, trade practices, and market confidence shape a country’s standing on the world stage.The conversation then turns to a timely and thought-provoking question: Could similar pressures ever be applied to the United States? Matt and John unpack the limits of geopolitical alignment, the power of financial markets as a disciplining force, and why size, scale, and reserve currency status make the U.S. a uniquely difficult economy to isolate.Rather than predictions or prescriptions, this episode offers a framework for understanding how market trust is built, and how it can erode, through currencies, bond yields, equities, and global capital flows.Be sure to like, subscribe, and follow for weekly insights into the global forces driving FX, equities, commodities, interest rates, and more.

Trading Global Macro Podcast – Ep. 16In this episode of the Trading Global Macro Podcast, John Kicklighter and Matt Weller break down the concept of central bank independence and why it has become such a critical issue for global markets. With renewed political pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve, they explore why independence exists, what happens when it is lost, and how different central banks operate across the spectrum from government control to full autonomy.Using real-world examples, the discussion examines the economic consequences of limited independence, the trade-offs between short-term political goals and long-term monetary stability, and how credibility plays a central role in inflation outcomes, currency performance, and investor confidence. The episode also places recent developments at the Federal Reserve into historical context and outlines what market participants should be watching next.Themes covered:🔷 What central bank independence means and why it exists🔷 The tension between political election cycles and long-term monetary policy goals🔷 Economic outcomes when central banks lack independence, with examples from Turkey and China🔷 Partial independence and policy coordination at the Bank of Japan🔷 Pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve, historical parallels, and implications for inflation and credibilityBe sure to like, subscribe, and follow for weekly insights into the global forces driving FX, equities, commodities, interest rates, and more.

Trading Global Macro Podcast – Ep. 15Welcome to the Trading Global Macro Podcast from StoneX! In this episode, John Kicklighter and Matt Weller dive deep into extreme market conditions: what they are, how to identify them, and strategies to navigate volatility, liquidity challenges, and major event risks.They explore:🔷Price Extremes vs. Price Movement: Why context matters🔷Liquidity Distortions: Seasonal and structural impacts🔷Uncertainty & Event Risk: How to manage gray swans, black swans, and scheduled surprises🔷Correlation Breakdowns: What happens when diversification fails🔷Practical tips for protecting your capital during turbulent timesWhether you’re a seasoned trader or just curious about global macro trends, this episode offers actionable insights to help you stay informed and prepared.Subscribe for weekly episodes on macro trends and trading strategies, and don't forget like & share if you found this discussion helpful!

Trading Global Macro Podcast – Ep. 14In this episode of the Trading Global Macro podcast, John Kicklighter and Matt Weller take a look back at the biggest market surprises of 2025. From the waning influence of policy to a dramatic decline in the impact of top event risk to the perspective of deteriorating quality of data, they touch upon systemic changes. They each touch upon the single market that most surprised them. Themes covered:🔷A flagging - or perhaps competing - focus of systemic fundamental themes🔷Significant decline in the market-moving influence of key event risk (like NFPs and FOMC)🔷An erosion of confidence around the top event risk in the markets🔷USD/JPY’s “identity crisis” as interest-rate differentials compress and risk appetite holds🔷Gold’s massive rally and what it signals for policy, inflation, and trust in institutionsBe sure to like, subscribe, and follow for weekly insights into the global forces driving FX, equities, commodities, interest rates, and more.

Trading Global Macro Podcast – Ep. 13In this week’s Trading Global Macro Podcast from StoneX, John Kicklighter and Matt Weller unpack one of finance’s most foundational and contentious ideas: the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH).The discussion explores:🔷The three forms of EMH (weak, semi-strong, and strong) and the assumptions behind them🔷Why the strongest form is widely rejected, and what real-world behavior reveals🔷The role of sentiment, incentives, time horizons, and irrational behavior🔷How market participants digest new information in real time (including a case study on tariff announcements)🔷Why understanding EMH can improve humility, discipline, and risk awareness🔷How speculative excess, behavioral biases, and structural frictions shape market outcomesJohn and Matt offer a balanced, grounded debate that blends academic concepts with real-world market dynamics, without making any trading or investment recommendations.If you enjoy macroeconomics, behavioral finance, or deep-dive discussions on how markets process information, this episode is for you.Be sure to like, subscribe, and follow to catch weekly conversations that examine the global forces shaping FX, equities, commodities, interest rates, and more.

Trading Global Macro Podcast - Ep. 10Prediction markets are quickly gaining traction as a new frontier for traders and analysts — where real money meets real-world forecasts. In this week's episode of the Trading Global Macro Podcast, hosts John Kicklighter and Matt Weller explore how prediction markets, like Kalshi and Polymarket, offer unique insights into economic trends, policy decisions, and market sentiment.They dive into:🔹How prediction markets align incentives through real stakes 🔹The connection between prediction markets and traditional macro analysis 🔹Prediction market's ability to focus on the market sentiment around a specific theme🔹Opportunities and risks — from liquidity to regulatory challenges 🔹Practical ways to use prediction data to supplement trading and analysis Be sure to like, subscribe, and follow for weekly insights into the global forces driving FX, equities, commodities, interest rates, and more.

StoneX Trading Global Macro Podcast - Ep.9In this week’s episode of the Trading Global Macro Podcast from StoneX, hosts John Kicklighter and Matt Weller explore a topic that impacts every trader and investor: how we consume market information.From sensational financial headlines to social media speculation, the duo breaks down how incentives, bias, and interpretation can distort the true meaning of data. John and Matt discuss:🔹 Why markets react differently than headlines suggest🔹 The danger of “bombastic” narratives in financial media🔹 How to separate genuine market-moving news from noise🔹 The role of incentives in shaping analysis and commentary🔹 Practical tips for filtering information and identifying key macro themesBe sure to like, subscribe, and follow for weekly insights into the global forces driving FX, equities, commodities, interest rates, and more.

StoneX Trading Global Macro Podcast – Ep. 7This week on The Trading Global Macro Podcast from StoneX, John Kicklighter and Matt Weller unpack one of the most powerful, and misunderstood, forces in financial markets: event risk. From central bank meetings to jobs and inflation reports, scheduled releases are moments when new information floods into the market all at once, often sparking sharp volatility. But how should traders and investors prepare for these events?In this episode, John and Matt explore:🔹 The difference between scheduled and unscheduled event risks🔹 Why volatility tends to cluster around these moments🔹 How expectations drive market reactions🔹 The key global events that consistently move markets🔹Practical tips for incorporating event risk into short- and long-term strategiesBe sure to like, subscribe, and follow for weekly insights into the global forces driving FX, equities, commodities, interest rates, and beyond.

StoneX Trading Global Macro Podcast – Ep. 6In this week’s Trading Global Macro Podcast from StoneX, John Kicklighter and Matt Weller break down one of the core principles of market analysis — the global macro framework — and explain why understanding it is essential for every trader and investor.They explore:🔹 The difference between top-down and bottom-up market analysis🔹 Why risk appetite drives 80–90% of market movement over time🔹 How themes like trade wars, interest rates, and regulation shape investor psychology🔹 The evolving importance of event risk like nonfarm payrolls, inflation and central bank decisions🔹 Practical ways to identify shifting market focus and spot turning pointsBe sure to like, subscribe, and follow for weekly insights into the global forces driving FX, equities, commodities, interest rates, and beyond.

StoneX Trading Global Macro Podcast – Ep. 5In this week’s Trading Global Macro Podcast from StoneX, John Kicklighter and Matt Weller break down gold’s historic rally to record highs — its longest winning streak in over a decade — and what’s really driving the move.They explore:🔹 Why central banks are buying gold at the fastest pace in years🔹 How geopolitics and reserve diversification are reshaping demand🔹 Whether gold’s rise reflects inflation hedging, safe-haven flows, or anti-fiat sentiment🔹 What could trigger a correction or extend the rally🔹 How silver fits into the broader precious metals storySubscribe for weekly insights into the macro trends shaping FX, equities, commodities, interest rates, and more.

StoneX Trading Global Macro Podcast – Ep. 4In this week’s Trading Global Macro Podcast from StoneX, John Kicklighter and Matt Weller take a discuss on of the market’s most frequently referenced benefactors, AI, and whether it is revolution that keeps driving markets and the economy higher or on the cusp of a bubble.They explore:🔹 How AI investment is seen boosting traditional GDP and market sentiment🔹 The parallels between today’s enthusiasm and the dot-com boom through 2000🔹 What earnings reports from the “Magnificent Seven” reveal about the AI cycle🔹 How sentiment can fall apart even as the AI boom continues🔹What to watch for in the marketSubscribe for weekly insights into the macro themes driving FX, equities, commodities, interest rates, and more.

StoneX Trading Global Macro Podcast – Ep. 3In this week’s Trading Global Macro Podcast from StoneX, John Kicklighter and Matt Weller dive into the hotly debated course of U.S. monetary policy and interest rate expectations into 2026 and beyond.They explore:🔹 The disconnect between Fed forecasts and market pricing🔹 Immigration’s surprising role in shaping employment trends🔹 Why data revisions and policy pressure are complicating the Fed’s mandate🔹 Potential outcomes for the U.S. dollar and S&P 500 under different rate scenarios🔹 Whether the “Fed Put” still exists—and what might trigger itBe sure to like and subscribe for weekly insights into the forces shaping FX, equities, commodities, interest rates, and beyond!

In this week’s Trading Global Macro Podcast from StoneX, John Kicklighter and Matt Weller unpack the looming U.S. government shutdown and its potential implications for global markets.They explore:- Lessons from past shutdowns and their economic fallout- How political gridlock affects investor confidence in US assets- The resilience, and vulnerabilities, of the US dollar and Treasury market- Whether alternatives like the euro, gold, or Bitcoin could challenge the dollar’s dominance- Why the shift away from US exceptionalism may look less like a “light switch” and more like a “dimmer switch”While short-term impacts may be limited, the conversation highlights growing long-term concerns around fiscal deficits, credit ratings, and the dollar’s future as the world’s reserve currency.Be sure to like and subscribe for weekly insights into the forces shaping FX, equities, commodities, interest rates, and beyond!

Welcome to the first episode of the Trading Global Macro Podcast from StoneX, hosted by John Kicklighter (Global Head of Content) and Matt Weller (Global Head of Market Research, Self-Directed Brands).In this episode, John and Matt tackle one of the most overused yet misunderstood concepts in financial markets: risk appetite. What does “risk on” or “risk off” really mean in the context of the broader financial markets? And, what does it mean when sentiment benchmarks like the S&P 500 continue to climb despite a myriad of fundamental concerns floated by detractors? Whether you're a trader looking for signals or an investor watching macro themes unfold, this episode offers grounded, practical insight into the forces shaping global risk sentiment today.Subscribe for weekly macro breakdowns and market insight.#RiskAppetite #TradingStrategy #MarketSentiment #GlobalMarkets #FinancePodcast

Whether you're a trader looking for signals or an investor watching macro themes unfold, this episode offers grounded, practical insight into the forces shaping global risk sentiment today.Subscribe for weekly macro breakdowns and market insight.#RiskAppetite #TradingStrategy #MarketSentiment #GlobalMarkets #FinancePodcast