008 For the Love of Politics – For the Love of Data

History of Data in Politics First off, 538’s podcast, What’s the Point did a great four part series on the data of politics that covered the history of politics from the late 1800s through the primaries. So please check out the above links for more context behind this. A brief history of data in politics shows the major ways candidates appealed to constituents progressed along this path: Party Elite chose candidates. Direct outreach – Candidates engage voters directly, including things like voting after parties offering booze to those who voted for a particular candidate. TV – When TV came along, suddenly candidates could reach the majority of voters just by running ads on three networks. Direct Mail – Politicians could use subscriber lists from certain magazines to target specific groups that might be interested in their policies. Micro Targeting – This started around 2004 where data analysis identified target demographics to go after, advertise, and appeal to. Individual Targeting – Howard Dean (2004) was a pioneer in this effort, coalescing state voter lists together and appending commercial data. This continued in 2008 with Barack Obama where they found that there was still a significant diversity in micro groups. The trend was refined in 2012 where campaigns used individual data to feed into, test, and refine their models. However, there are roots back to 1891 when James Clarkson, the RNC chairman, assembled a file that featured the “age, occupation, nativity, residence and all the other facts in each votersʼ life, and had them arranged alphabetically, so that literature could be sent constantly to every voter directly.”10 The Obama campaign in 2008 and 2012 hired enormous amounts of staffers — 342 in the 2012 race alone in technology, digital data and analytics. History of Voting Trends by State7 All Elections since 1876 (the year Texas A&M was founded, whoop!) Most Democratic (1932) Most Republican (1972) Voter Turnout Rates In voter turnout data by country since 2000, the US ranks #159 out of #196 with just over 55% average voter turnout. We can and should do better. Rank Average of Voter Turn­out (%)# of Data PointsMin YearMax YearCountry 199.8320022011Lao People's Dem. Republic 299.3420022016Viet Nam 397.9320032013Rwanda 496.5120042004Equatorial Guinea 595.1320032013Cuba 694.1520012013Australia 794320032013Malta 893.8420012015Singapore 991.3320042013Luxembourg 1091.2320022008Faroe Islands 1191320022012Bahamas 1290.3420032014Belgium 1389.9420002015Tajikistan 1489.8420002015Ethiopia 1589.8520002016Nauru 1689.7320042014Uruguay 1787.4320042013Turkmenistan 1887.2320042014Antigua and Barbuda 1987.1320042014Uzbekistan 2086.4520012015Denmark 2185.1320052013Aruba 2284.6420022014Bolivia 2384.5420032013Iceland 2484.4420012013Liechtenstein 2584.1420022015Turkey 2683.5520002016Peru 2783.3220012007Timor-Leste 2883.1420022014Sweden 2982.4420042014Tunisia 3081.9320062014Cook Islands 3181.6320042014Guinea-Bissau 3281.6320022011Seychelles 3381.5420012016Cyprus 3480.2420012013Italy 3580.1220052013Cayman Islands 3680120022002Tuvalu 3779.4320022012Sierra Leone 3879.2320042014Botswana 3979.1420022013Austria 4078.6420022014Brazil 4178.6420002014Mauritius 4278.4220042014Namibia 4378.2320042013Malaysia 4477.9420012013Chile 4577.9520022012Netherlands 4677.8220012016Samoa 4777.7120062006Palestinian Territory, Occupied 4877.6520022014New Zealand 4977320032013Monaco 5076.9120122012Papua New Guinea 5176.9420012013Norway 5276.7320042014Indonesia 5376.6220112015Gibraltar 5476.6320012014Fiji 5576.4420012015Guyana 5676320052014Maldives 5775.8320042014South Africa 5875.6420032015Belize 5975.6320032013Cambodia 6075.6720012015Argentina 6175.5420002012Belarus 6275.5520002016Mongolia 6375.4520012015Andorra 6475.2320032013Grenada 6575.1220082012Angola 6675120032003Yemen 6774.8520012013Philippines 6874.8420022013Germany 6974.1220052011Liberia 7074420002012Ghana 7173.9320022010Sao Tome and Principe 7273.8320042014Panama 7373.8320032012Bermuda 7473.6320012011Nicaragua 7573.5220102015Myanmar 7673.5420002015Anguilla 7773.3520002015Sri Lanka 7872.8320022013Togo 7972.7320052015Burundi 8072.5420012014Montserrat 8171.9620002016Spain 8271.4120152015Comoros 8370.9420022013Ecuador 8470.7320022013Kenya 8570.5320012014Bangladesh 8670.5620002015Greece 8769.7420002015Saint Kitts and Nevis 8869.6320062012Montenegro 8969.6420032015Virgin Islands, British 9069.5420012012San Marino 9169.4520022016Kazakhstan 9268.4620012014Thailand 9368.2320022013Cameroon 9467.9420022014Costa Rica 9567.8220022013Guinea 9667.5120072007Kiribati 9767.5320052014Iraq 9867.2420012015Saint Vincent and The Grenadines 9966.9220052011Central African Republic 10066.9620002015Trinidad and Tobago 10166.8320072013Bhutan 10266.5420032015Finland 10366.4620012015Israel 10466.3420012016Uganda 10566.2420052014Tonga 10666.1420022016Ireland 10766.1420022014Hungary 10865.9320012013Mauritania 10965.9320032013Paraguay 11065.6420002015Suriname 11165.3420012014Solomon Islands 11265.1320072015Oman 11365520012016Taiwan 11464.7220062011Congo, Democratic Republic of 11564.4520022016Vanuatu 11664.4520062013Kuwait 11764.3320012011Zambia 11864.2420022015Burkina Faso 11963.9420032015Guatemala 12063.5320022010Netherlands Antilles 12163.4320032013Djibouti 12263.3120082008Nepal 12363.2420012015United Kingdom 12463520022014Latvia 12563520022014Macedonia, former Yugoslav Republic (1993-) 12662.6620002015Canada 12762.6420012016Cape Verde 12862.6520002015Croatia 12962.5520012014Moldova, Republic of 13062.4520002015Kyrgyzstan 13162.3520002014Slovenia 13262420032015Estonia 13361.8320032013Barbados 13461.7520022014Ukraine 13561.6420022014Bahrain 13661.5620002014Japan 13761.5220002003Yugoslavia, FR/Union of Serbia and Montenegro 13861.4320042014Malawi 13961.1420002015Tanzania, United Republic of 14061.1420022013Czech Republic 14160.9320042014India 14260.5520022016Slovakia 14360.1520022015Portugal 14459.8320032011Russian Federation 14559.3320032012Armenia 14659.3220022013Madagascar 14759.3420032012Georgia 14859.2220102015Sudan 14959.2420032015Benin 15058.6320022012France 15157.9420022016Dominican Republic 15257.9320082016Iran, Islamic Republic of 15357.8520072016Serbia 15457.6420002014Dominica 15557.3520012014Bulgaria 15657.1420032016Syrian Arab Republic 15757520002014Bosnia and Herzegovina 15855.9420012013Honduras 15955.7820002014United States 16055.5420002015Venezuela 16155.3420032013Jordan 16255.1520002016Korea, Republic of 16355.1420022016Jamaica 16454.8320002012Palau 16554.5220022011Chad 16653.4320042016Niger 16753.1420022015Lesotho 16852.1620002015Mexico 16951.9420012013Albania 17051.7220122014Libya 17151.4420002012Lithuania 17251.2420002012Romania 17350.8520002015Azerbaijan 17448.9320012011Saint Lucia 17548.6220072013Micronesia, Federated States of 17648.5320002009Lebanon 17748.1520012015Poland 17848220072015Marshall Islands 17947.8420032015Switzerland 18047.6220052010Afghanistan 18146.7320022013Pakistan 18246.2320012012Senegal 18345.6320002008Zimbabwe 18445.3420042014Kosovo 18544.7320022011Morocco 18643.7520002015El Salvador 18743.2320042014Mozambique 18842.6420022014Colombia 18941.6320022012Algeria 19040.5320032015Nigeria 19139.2320022012Gambia 19236.5420052015Egypt 19334.3120112011Gabon 19434.1220002011Côte d'Ivoire 19532.2420002015Haiti 19631.8320022013Mali 30+ vote much at much higher rates than younger voters. The more educated you are, the more likely you are to vote. Most commonly black or white; Hispanics are the lowest consistently since 1984. White share has been declining, but is still an overwhelming 77% of the vote8. Sources: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-history-of-data-in-american-politics-part-1-william-jennings-bryan-to-barack-obama/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-history-of-data-in-american-politics-part-3-the-2016-primaries/ http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2012/federalelections2012.shtml http://www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/voter-turnout-data http://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2016/comm/electorate-profiles/cb16-tps25_voting_texas.html http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/elections.php http://www.fairvote.org/voter_turnout#voter_turnout_101 http://www.idea.int/vt/viewdata.cfm http://www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/demographics http://41lscp16wiqd3klpnn1z0t2a.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Kreiss_NiemanFinal.pdf http://nationbuilder.com/voterfile