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It's incredibly simple. Let me just break it down. Ultimate Draft Kit. The Ultimate Draft Kit for the Fantasy Footballers is hands down the best fantasy tool in existence.
I mean, come on. It's got sleepers, it's got bus, injury updates, full projections, this thing's getting a full Dynasty of Rainbows. Don't know if you think this. It's the only wing manual niche.
Head over to Ultimate Draft Kit dot com and grab your copy right away. To the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Oh, welcome in. Big, big episode.
The Fantasy Footballers Mike Wright, Jason Moore, Andy Holloway. Coming at you. Coming to you. Yay, howl.
Let's go. Top 10 tips tricks. Kiel. Thank you.
Oh, yeah. It's a big episode. Top 10 tips and tricks to win your league, which we... This is our 10th season.
And I'm pretty sure we've done this every year. So we've got to be pushing... Oh, gosh. That's 100.
That's 100 ways that you can give yourself an advantage. So we always try to bring something new to the table. So we've got 10 tips and tricks, some strategy, advice for you on the show today. And I'm excited.
I think it's going to be fun. I am too. I've been looking forward to the show for quite a while. And I'm also looking forward to tomorrow's episode, whatever it is.
We don't know. Let's... I mean, we do. We know.
They don't know. Yeah, they're very good episodes this week. I'll say this. They're the top 10 tips and tricks episode.
They're narrowing it down. And my guys is coming soon. It's this week, but it could be Friday. It could be Thursday or Friday.
Lots going on. Very, very excited to have you with us. Thank you for supporting the show. Shout out to the Foot Clan.
Everybody's supporting you. Join the Foot.com. Shout out to everybody coming out to see us in Los Angeles in less than two weeks. Which you can do.
BallersLive.com, if you want to know more about our live event at the Palace Theatre in Los Angeles presented by Sleeper. And of course, I mean, I don't want to bury this because it's the biggest week for the UDK and for this giveaway. But on Friday, we've got the UDK for Life Giveaway live on YouTube. We'll be streaming the giveaway.
We'll be giving away at Justin Jefferson, Jersey. And all you have to do is pick up the UDK before Friday. So if you bought it in the past, you're entered to win. If you haven't bought it yet, you're kind of behind the table here.
So long as the past was this year. You have to have gotten the 2024 Ultimate Draft Kit. You're not entered if you're the 2017 to automatically be in there. But yeah, go get it now.
I mean, this is the time, man. This is the draft season is upon us. We're right around the corner. Take a look at the 100 plus video profile, you know, breakdowns of each of the top players are tiered rankings.
That's the way we try to encourage everyone to draft is based on tears. We're going to give you a lot of tips and tricks today. And some of them will be, you know, it'll correlate to what you can do with that tool. Yep.
And this is the time we see it every year. People are listening. But this is when they jump into the Ultimate Draft Kit. That's Ultimate Draft Kit.com.
All right. I'm excited about this. We had a week one of preseason football. Let's talk about it.
Welcome to Hungry for More presented by Uber Eids. All right. Looking at preseason week one and players, we are hungry for more from. I have to bring up a name that is kind of, you know, it's percolated throughout the offseason.
And there are other names involved in the wide receiver discussion in Cincinnati. But it doesn't hurt if you come out in week one and go three for 82 in a big touchdown. Jermaine Burton of the Cincinnati Bengals. The big play is the MO for Jermaine Burton.
So to see it in preseason week one, I mean, this is a guy that was top five or actually he led power five wide receiver. And average depth of targets. Yeah, we got to hit him with that number. Average depth of targets.
So this is how far he was down the field on average when he was catching the ball. 20.2 yards down the field. That's unbelievable. He was also like third fastest and next-gen stats and ran a four four five.
So, you know, you talk about what makes a wide receiver three if he ends up winning that job valuable. When you're not number one in the packing order of targets or number two with Higgins and Chase, it is the big play. And even Tyler Boyd, it sounds funny because we don't look at Tyler Boyd as an explosive player necessarily by, you know, kind of Arktite, but in that offense, even Tyler Boyd regularly was kind of forgotten about by the secondary and would end up with these big plays. So I want to see more Jermaine Burton in the preseason.
I love this call so much. I mean, he should be higher in most people's dynasty rankings and perceive long-term value than he is right now. I think he's undervalued. T Higgins obviously is not going to be on this team next year.
At least that's what it seems like right now. And so you're talking about a future two for Joe Burrow. I love it. I'm going to talk about a current two, but not really for the Tennessee Titans running game.
And that's Taje Spears. I want to see more of Taje Spears. It's very, very interesting. This entire offseason, there has been complete consistency from the coaching staff about their running back court, that they have two starters, that it is a 1A and a 1A.
I mean, a 1A, 1B at the least. Like it's someone's going to get the first snap. Tony Pollard had a great preseason game. He got the first snap.
Second snap, Spears. Then they basically, every couple of plays, they just rotated out. We haven't really seen something like that a lot, but this is really, truly that all, both of those guys could be out there on every single down. All the plays, they're capable of playing.
Should either one of them get injured, the other could be a really great asset. But when I look at these two players, and I think, okay, Tony Pollard looked good this preseason game, he's getting paid more, sure. But look at last year, and look at, you know, last year, Tony Pollard was disappointing. He was not the same explosive back he was years prior, and he's older than you think he is now, whereas Taje Spears was extremely explosive.
He had a reception of 48 yards, a reception of 42 yards, a reception of 89 yards, a reception of 41. Like, he's a really explosive back. And if he's being utilized, and they go with the hot hand, I think there's a good chance that his hand is hotter than Tony Pollard as the season goes on. Did he have to test on the sideline?
Yeah, they do. They do. Oh, they don't go the laser thermometer? Oh, no, no, this is code.
This is code field. This is straight up. Give me a hearty handshake on the sideline line up. You know, Pollard, you get first handshake.
Taje, you get second. Give me one of your strong. And then he's going to be like, whoa. Literal hot hand approach.
That's exactly right. Look, I like the idea of them having an old school green chalkboard on the sideline, and it's just a dash for every carry for each guy. And evens it up. When he said Spears was in on the second snap, it was imagine if like no matter what the rules for the Titans are, it's every other snap.
Oh, no matter. Don't matter. Do you know how tired those running acts would be? It's not like, like, you know, running is getting off of you.
The amount of running just to get out there. Like, coach, please leave me on the field. I'm tired of being snapped. Believe it or not, we have a Sam Disorbbo Rode does the hot hand exist article on the website that you can go look up.
So, apparently we have an article for everything you could say, Jason. Sweet. Which is scary. All right, Mike, who do you got?
Who are you hungry for more? I'm the Senate. The Senate, baby. The Senator, I watch it.
Did you see it? Did you see the play? I am famished and I need more Ben. More.
Send it. Need more Ben Senate in my life. It was rumbling and stumbling and dragging multiple defenders down the field. He looks like the guy that I scouted and hoped it would translate.
He is a rookie player for Washington. Yeah. He is voice of public opinion. Zach, the hurts is eternal and immoral.
He is and unfortunately the offensive coordinator at Cliff Kingsbury loves Zach Earth. So I still do think that it takes time for Ben Senate. However, this is about being hungry for more of a player and it's hard to have a better debut in limited snaps than what he put out there. Three for 57.
The big catch was 44 yards. It is he looked like he looked big. He looked strong. He looked fast.
And this is what I need from a tight end. So hopefully suited it later. Hopefully Ben can take the job. He was the highest rated rookie tight end or highest rated from PFF.
So it's just it's very exciting. It is a little bit comical. The parallels between the McBride and the Patriots and the you saw the individual plays from McBride and it was stuff like dragging guys down the field breaking tackles. And then you see this from Senate and both had Zach Earth's just, you know, and Cliff Kingsbury involved in their maturation process.
But good names, good names for hungry for that was hungry for more presented by Uber Eats. Get almost almost anything for game day delivered with Uber Eats official on demand food delivery partner of the NFL order now. And I will say this. We are this is not a tip or trick to win on game day, but is it is a I figured you can write that book.
The tips and tricks that I mean what we eat what we get delivered is very dependent on how the week and day is going. I'm just saying we've had some ice cream after news to kind of Medicaid away the pain and then we've had some celebratory meals. It's so fabulous on a Sunday morning to have like if you're watching your fantasy team and your guys put up an absolute stinker. You're in a bad, it's not my fault.
I'm in a bad mood. It's their fault. And you know what? It's not my fault.
I'm going to put down half gallon ice cream right now. That's their fault. That is. I'm going to love it.
That's how it works. Yeah, it's my player. It's my players fault. This is crunter off supreme.
Because you imagine it's your fault. Can you imagine when you talk to your doctor? And they're like, sir, what are some of the things leading to your challenges with food? Tony Pollard.
Who's that? All right. Let's jump in. News and notes from around the league presented by USA insurance.
All right. We've got news for you. We do. Jamar Chase, Mike, you're not doing work with your guys at all.
Jamar Chase, Miss Tuesday's practice. He's awaiting a contract extension still. So he had been showing up and involved during drills. I don't like it.
Yeah, I was going to say, what's the like, come back, do some drills and I'm out again. It's just, I mean, give me my money or I'm going to go home and figure it out. I'm curious. So like obviously Jamar Chase, he's by rule has to be fined for all of these practices in the new collective party.
Sam, it's going to be lamb. All these guys. They cannot be rescinded. They can't be rescinded, but they can be restored on the contract.
Like they add it usually to the contract that they eventually signed. But I was thinking about that with Brandon and you like, if he ends up getting traded, he's probably just losing that money. You know what I mean? Like, are the Steelers going to add in all of his fines from him missing practices on the Niners?
I think they're going to add in so much. I mean, the contract's going to be beautiful. So I mean, right now, I mean, we don't have it. We don't have an update officially.
For you. But I do. I mean, it's worth bringing up right here just to give you a lay of the land. If you're listening to the show and you want to know what's going on and we've been talking about Brian and I you as it stands right now, essentially what's being reported by the best in the business is a contract agreement and a trade has been agreed to in principle between the Pittsburgh Steelers and San Francisco 49ers.
The only thing remaining is for the 49ers to give their final sign off to the deal. The reason that hasn't happened yet is because they have made some final overtures to Brandon and I you about a long-term deal. And it seems like it's going to come down to Brandon and you choosing a financially better situation for a team he does want to play for. He wants to go to Pittsburgh or San Francisco coming far enough on their offer to bridge that gap and keep him in a situation where he's thrived.
The last report I saw is it's just a difference of years now from San Francisco. Again, these are all second-hand reports that we're getting, but that's we got the news yesterday that's, oh, whether the San Francisco, they've come up, they're not that far apart. But if you're like, no, you're a full year apart, that's a big amount of money actually apart. Yeah, this is, I mean, we've all been in fantasy leagues, but we're trying to trade for a guy.
And then owners like, yeah, I think I'm going to do it. I got to talk to my co-manager. I got to do something I'll get back to. Let me run the numbers.
Can you imagine how upset the Steelers are right now? Like the GM in the office, his door is shut and he's cursing out. He's like, come on. You had weeks.
You know what's funny is you asked me the question on the show like a month ago about how long would you wait for a deal. And the truth is if I think it's in my advantage, I wait, like I waited two weeks for a deal. In our dynasty because I liked it for myself. So maybe the Steelers are in that boat where it's like, oh, they are.
We don't expect it. We didn't expect the chance to get a guy like Brandon and you. It's on the table. We might as well just ride this thing.
I guess I'm just I'm saying shame on you. Niners. That's what I'm saying. Come on.
Come on. If they make a trade and they get something in return like it's not helping them to wait, like get ready for the season with the personnel you have. And it's not helping Brandon and you if you are going to bring them back to not have them on the field practicing. So yeah, the delay, not great.
This is great though. Lions head coach Dan Campbell, AKA Guns Mahoney says he thinks Jimmy gives his quote. I'm going to be fine. Oh, yeah.
Keep, keep, keep reading there. Let me, let me give you the exact quote. I think we're going to be fine here. Campbell said.
So I think we'll be good. Okay. He's thinking, he's thinking they're fine thinking they're good. That's not a doctor.
I mean, okay. Do you want that reply or do you want the Jim Harbaugh reply of I'm not even qualified to be qualified to talk about this. Do you want the tantalizing possibility of him being fine or do you want nothing at all? No, I think I do prefer this, the dog in the fire gift where this is fine.
We're all fine here. You know, I mean, I guess it's better than saying I don't think we're going to be fine. I think we're going to miss games, but when you hear this, it makes me feel like. Could have been more like certain.
Like certain. It makes me a little fearful of week one. Like it like this sounds to me, not a doctor, but this sounds to me like I think we're going to be okay for week one. I want you to say we will be.
All right. Hollywood Brown, 46 weeks. Mike, you had kind of nailed this. You had talked about some previous injury history with this.
I'm going to go for it. Sterno, clav, mick, you know, yeah, nailed it. Yeah. Injury.
So here we are just want to take and reps with the first team. And that is because when Hollywood went down, they put in Skymore in replacement during the first preseason game. And then they went, Oh, dad socks. Justin Watson, you are now you're kind of like summarizing what you think the internal thoughts were.
Yeah. Tyrone Tracy. I think they're like, Oh, let's go out there again. He just ran out.
Yeah, who did this with a Watson jersey on giants? Rookie running back Tyrone Tracy, Jr. Wow. Was diagnosed with a low right angle sprain after he got injured during practice.
I'm sorry, everyone. We reported what was reported to us. It wasn't a made up report. We were told he was aircasted and brought to a hospital for special surgery.
Now, the hospital certainly did they turn him away because they said, dude, you just got an ankle spring. Like everybody like, I love the comments on this. I think the Falcon was sharing these with us yesterday because when these news, you know, the news breaks, you look at the comments from these major reports and it came out that he had a low right ankle sprain. And the first time I was like, I thought he was dead.
It was like, how do you go from like aircast season over to, you'll be fine. You're in meetings and you're not nothing's wrong. He was packing meetings. There's a pain tolerance.
He feels strong. So that's my question is there's really only two paths of truth here. I see there he is like a Wolverine and the doctor got out there on the field and said, oh my gosh, aircast and get him to the hospital immediately and by the time he's there, it's like, I'm good. Or, or he's more like, you know, ow, and it's like, ow, ow, ow, ow, ow.
And when he got injured on the field, it's like, ow, ow, ow, ow, ow, ow, ow, ow, ow, ow, ow, ow, ow, ow. No, no, I have a third option. I also tough. He, he Paul Pearson and he pooped his pants and he needed a way out, he needed a way off that field.
Talk, to him the foots out, tell him the foots on the leg. Matt Jones turned down, serge. Oh yeah. I mean, I'm not sure what the other players would have got the surgery.
Is that the Tyrone Tracey? Like maybe. So anyways, the good news is here Tyrone Tracey seems like he's going to be fine for the season. I guess.
Awesome. That's big news. It is really good. I mean, all jokes aside, this is great news.
Deontae Johnson, day to day with a groin strain. So I grind index.com already updated. And there you go. Getting news.
What is this? This is an evolving or developing story. We just got word that Mike Evans is leaving. There's a joint practice right now between the box and the Jaguars and Mike Evans was seeing the leaving with helmet in hand.
No, no, it says specifically with Jagshelmet in hand. I'm just curious. He ripped the helmet off him. It is written that way.
We could have used a comma because it's leaving joint practice with Jags. I see comma. Yes. Okay.
I saw a minute because I read it the same way. I was like, this is not rock and jock. He got traded in the middle of practice. Doo doo doo doo doo.
Leaving with a Jagshelmet on. Okay. He left the joint practice with the Jagshelmet in hand. So we'll pay attention.
He also pulled up in like a. You see. He pulled up in a box helmet. He pulled up in like a gigantic like car.
That was a box helmet. Oh, for real. Let's see the video. All right.
That was today's news and notes presented by USA insurance. Learn more at USA dot com slash insurance. We will take a break and we'll jump right into the tips and tricks. All right.
It's time to jump into the tips and tricks to win your league. And again, one more reminder for you. Please come and join us for the Megala show in Los Angeles presented by sleeper. We've got lots of giveaways going on live at the show from Christine auction.
We're working with fantasy cares as well. And this is our 10th anniversary event. You can go to ballerslive.com to come to come and join us next Saturday. Yeah, it's, we got it.
We've got to be part of the Q and A. I need to travel over there and to do the show. Marty there. Tips and tricks.
I don't know why you're laughing and I'm afraid to ask the video that that that video graphic was outstanding. I mean, you got you got Professor Holloway and magician Jason. That was that was pretty silly. All right.
I like a sweater on yourself. This episode helps you win championship. So we we want to bring something new each and every year. Very excited.
Time to kick it off. Number 10. All right. We'll call number 10 don't live in the past, right?
There are a lot of players drafted last year that had very, very hot starts to the season. And it is very much human nature, the nature of fancy football managers to believe that they are set, that they have figured out exactly the roster that's going to carry them through the season just because players get off to a hot start. Examples of that like Travis Etienne and AJ Brown had the blistering pace and people traded for him and Ken Walker started really, really strong. And I've got other examples for you.
Toa was the quarterback five through the first eight weeks. He from week nine on quarterback 20. The Andre Swift was the RB seven from week 12 on the RB 35. I like that you haven't called the hotness and the notness.
These were players you thought were locks. In fact, I traded to it. Mike on the basis of the first half of the season. He was presented to me as the hotness.
Did you get the notness? No, no, I got up close and realized this is this is not. Yeah, it's not good. So fine.
Did was wide receiver four from week 11 on the wide receiver 46. And again, these are not small spans. These are top five, six, seven players for eight to 10 weeks for the season. And then over the back half of the year, they were players that you would have, you know, in some cases definitely pivoted away from like to was not going to win you a championship.
So the message here, the tip here is don't copy and paste every previous week. It's not viable to simply do that. You do not win on paper. You do not win on the past or looking at previous stats.
And here's a little bit of a nuanced part of the equation. It's not just the schedule changing. It's not just injury to your player, but there are also fundamental injuries that happen to players that your player is dependent on. So that's something people don't necessarily pay attention to.
You might have a hot start for a wide receiver, but they're quarterback might go down. You might have a running back that's been dominant, but their offensive lineman might go down. So paying attention to more than the injuries for your exact player could help define the second half of the year. And it is easy and it's human nature to want to merely coast your way to the end with that beautifully pictured roster, but do not live in the past live week to week and make adjustments isolated to that time and place.
Okay, I've got a question for you on this. No questions. Sorry. All right, the number nine.
Yeah. So you traded to when he was the hotness. You didn't even bring up like what I thought was last year's best example Patrick Mahomes, who was the quarterback three through the first nine weeks. And then from week 10 on, he was the quarterback 18 at the halfway point through the season or maybe five, six weeks in.
Are you willing to trade? So like, like Mahomes is more in the level of like a Josh Allen, a Jalen hurts. You're expecting what he did and you're expecting it to continue forever versus a toa. Are you willing to take that first half of the season where you are hitting on your Josh Allen or your Jalen hurts if you drafted them and trade them away in to capitalize?
Obviously if you trade and you're getting a haul back, or is there like a tear break where, you know, if it's not the super expected guys, you know, if it's if it's a someone more that was drafted later and they're exploding, is that who you're trying to capitalize? I mean, yes, it's a good question. Because our players like Tyree Kail, for example, who you don't want to go in and just say, well, every player that's playing well for the first half, I want to trade. That's not the message.
The message is if you do trade those players that might be outperforming their average, that would be probably the first line of my thinking is, are they outperforming a standard that I would expect them to be able to perform at? If you make a trade and you're basing it off of players you think are going to perform in the back half of the year, that moment you make the trade is even value, right? Yes. So even if that player keeps playing at this pace and the players I got back, keep playing at their pace right then, I'm even theoretically.
Right. But if I make the judgment call, this player's outperforming and I like the schedule for this guys, that's where I can flip the script. And the big, the big component here is just don't don't sit back and think that I've got it all figured out. It's going to run this way the rest of the year.
ETN was one of the, I think it was RB two over the first half of the year, just behind CMC, the back half of the year didn't score as much. But you could kind of see some of that. We talked about his touchdown dependency in the first half of the year. So there, those are the opportunities, right?
The situations where you are, you know, the ETN is not scoring 28 touchdowns this year. Like that's a, that's a very obvious thing that you can say. So it's a judgment call, but let's not rest on our laurels. Number nine.
You're so comfy. And when I call this make delicious boxes. Okay. I mean, it's like, you know, all right.
Okay. You're meal prepping for your draft here. Okay. You're getting, you're getting ready to go in with just, oh man, I got, I got this delicious treat that delicious tree.
And what I'm, what I'm saying here is put some categories together in your mind of things that are important to you, are types of players. Okay. And I'm going to give you examples. I'm going to give you five of my delicious boxes this year.
Okay. Player types are types. I want one of these. And I look at who fits into that delicious box within the draft early, mid, late.
Okay. So for instance, I got it mobile quarterbacks with upside. That's what I want to leave my draft with. I like those type of players.
And so I'm going to look and I'm going to be prepared. I'm going to know, well, I can get Anthony Richardson in the fifth round. I can get Kyler in the sixth or seventh round. I can get Jaden Daniels in the 10th round.
Okay. So like I've got, I've got those three are in your, they're in my delicious box of all quarterbacks with upside. So other boxes for me, there is a good friend, J.J. Zachary sent to the show.
He did a study a long time ago about, you know, nebulous, wider, super cores that don't have one being drafted high. A lot of times there's value to be had there. And so when I look at unknown, wide receiver hierarchies, like, we're not going to build another box, but I want them from good offenses. Okay.
Where you've got, you're not sure necessarily who's going to be the dude, but you know, it's going to be good. I got tanked down in the fifth. Unknown. That's well, no, I get it.
The hierarchy is unknown. He's the last drafted of the three. I mean, he's behind eco and I already know the hierarchy. Okay.
Okay. Yeah. Uh, Jaden Reed of the Packers Packers are going to be great. Is it going to be read?
I don't know. He's in the six. I can get him a couple rounds later. He's like almost, he's a six, 11th rounder or rushy rice.
I think the chief's office is going to be great. And you can get him a little later. Like I want to leave with one of those types quickly. Touchdowns, super important for, uh, for fantasy football.
So look at touchdown, uh, 10 touchdown potential tight ends. LaPorter, he did it last year. Mark Andrews with touchdown machine later in the draft, Jake Ferguson, uh, at the running back, you got Derek Henry, you know, he's going to get double digit touchdown. David Montgomery later in the sixth, Reem Morris late.
Most of the year. Yeah. Not, not the coach. Reemos.
I don't think he's a zero touchdown potential. I've given one. I think I think he could. We are the only podcast that projects touchdowns for coaches.
That's you can find it in the ultimate draft game. Um, or, or, um, I, you know, rookies usually prove to be good picks by the end of the year, if they're, if they're quality players. So, you know, later in the draft, Malik neighbors, Lad McConkey, Keon Coleman, like, I just want to. Yeah.
I mean, there's potential, right? He could be the number one for Josh Allen. You could potentially explode and be terrible. Is this like the, uh, what, like the dinner, the pre-made dinner meals, they have all the different sections in the box?
Yes. And you got the little two, what is first? Yeah. You always eat the little tiny dessert first.
Right. Is that what we get? Yeah. Yeah.
We all eat first is a little tiny dessert. I mean, when it was the Brownie or the Apple one, oh, the Apple, like the little Apple, like the little Apple, but yeah. So, so what, and you don't have to be these players in these boxes, but take a look at your draft and be like, this is the type of player I want who qualifies through the draft. And so that you've got a game plan.
Yeah. Makes sense. Number eight. I want to talk about finding the late round running backs that can turn into starters for your team.
So every year we have running back, so we're not drafting the top 24, but they finish in the top 24. And let I wanted to see, is there a path or just some information that can help at least give you an edge at figuring out who are these targets that I need to go after? It's over the past five years. We see eight and a half teams without a top 24 running back draft, which that it makes sense because some teams have two guys slip into the top 24.
And, you know, then there's the other eight. However, from those teams that don't have a top 24, top 24 running back drafted, we see an average of just over five running backs finish inside the top 24. Does that make sense? So I want to make sure everyone's following.
So like teams who are guys who are not drafted to be in the top 24, we see five of them on average, make it into the top 24. So it's trying to identify or find some signals to identify players that could be the ones that move up. Exactly. And this is why it starts at team level projections.
How good do you think an offense is going to be? Last year, Deondry Swift, who we mentioned, he had a hot start. It wasn't great at the end, but it's still really hot. Oh, he was a value for fans.
Swears. James Cook, Isaiah Pacheco. It's hard to remember, but last year, those guys were the RB 28, 29 and 30 and 80. They weren't because it wasn't, you weren't rock solid of is, but check out, going to keep the job.
James Cook, there's questions here. There's questions about the players. You know what there was not questions about the team, the Philadelphia Eagles, the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs. Those are great offenses.
That would be a delicious box. Exactly. You know, I'm saying, sure. And I looked at it and the thing in common of these guys who make the jump into the top 24, their offenses are finishing as top 14 scoring offenses.
So it's identifying these guys trying to project which offenses are going to be in the top half and then look at the running backs who aren't being drafted like that. And right now, to me, there are three teams that I'm looking at that. I know that they're going to have a high powered offense. I'm just not sure about who it's going to be at the running back position.
The Cincinnati Bengals, we got Zack Moss. We got Chase Brown, which one is going to be. I don't know for sure, but they're both being drafted outside the top 24, the Dallas Cowboys. I've been pushing for Rico Douto.
You guys are a little bit more on the Ezekiel Elliott name, the brand side of that. But we, I think we're all agreement, the Cowboys are going to be a very high powered offense. And then the Chargers, that one sounds a little bit more strange, but Harbaugh and Giro, they put up high powered offenses and they do have a top tier elite quarterback. So it's just those are three teams that I think are easy to look at.
They don't have them again. The three teams, the Bengals, the Cowboys and Chargers, they don't have a top 24 running back in ADP and yet. All Bob, I'll bet that a couple players from those teams are going to finish easily in the top 24. I'll bet that that is a good bet.
So you second. All right. All those in favor. Can you bet on that?
Which way you bet on that? They let you bet on anything. Because I have just like, okay, what if he actually is okay? JK Dobbins, I have a band.
I said you're going to whisper it. I was checking it out. All right. I've had to abandon him because he's coming off the Achilles injury, but things that are progressively the way they're talking about depth charts over in the Chargers.
It's those are the two guys like listed. I think they're even listed as co-starters. The Kamani Vidal Sassoon, the hope of this late round guy. As of right now, he's the people watching the team.
He's projected to not make the team over Jared Patterson. Yeah, working in a salon. So I'm more and more open to the idea that Dobbins is a worthwhile pick. It's a good one.
Number seven. All right. It's going to be a little bit of a follow up of a discussion we started yesterday on the tight end rankings. I'm going to title it, reroll your tight end.
But we'll get into what that means. We discussed a lot of the times the offices in those conversations are around indices and rankings. And sometimes we're even surprised, especially at tight end. Oh, wow, that guy was a top 10 guy at tight end.
Top 10 really doesn't mean a lot. Just being inside the top 10 because you're in a 10 to 12 man league. And that means you got one of the worst options if you're at the bottom of that group. There was a year I loved who was a Trey Bhu.
Trey Burton. Oh, I'm going to get a disaster. I'm going to get a disaster. He finishes the Titan six that year.
So you can make it sound good, but he was terrible. So a lot of the discussion yesterday was like, OK, you know, Jason in particular, he loves those top five guys who wants to take the best of them in the draft. And maybe, you know, part of that's going to be waiting to grab the fourth or fifth guy. And that also means you might not get the guy you want.
You might have somebody pull the trigger sooner and you're like, wow, I need to punt the tight end position. I might miss my guy at tight end. What I'm saying with this, this whole like reroll redraft your tight end is something that would have worked really well last year. And that is sometime during the middle of the season, once we get data on strength, the schedule and how teams defend the Titan position, give yourself a chance to redo your tight end position.
If you look at the top five tight ends last year by stats, like the end of your top five was Laporta Ingram, Kelsey, Hawkins and Kittle. That's how they finish the lat, the top five tight ends over the back half. So from week nine on, it was Laporta and Ingram. OK, cool.
They're still there. The next three were Najoku, McBride and Ferguson over the second half of the season. You even had players like Isaiah like Lee had monster weeks. Schultz had huge weeks over the back half of the season.
If you played Najoku over Kelsey from week nine on, you got four and a half more fantasy points per week playing Najoku over Travis Kelsey. So if you miss your shot on locking in that position, I'm saying, make it a point in your brain, the same mid season, I'm going to make my move for a tight end because what we're not saying in our Titan ranking show is you don't need one. That's not the message just because you missed the top five is, oh, well, I can settle without a tight end. You win leagues because of great tight end performances.
The problem is you think you missed the boat and I'm saying, let's reroll that. Go back to the drawing board. You know, it's not another draft in the middle of the year, but through a trade, you can identify somebody, take another, another shot. And that is kind of a luxury you get when you don't draft the top five guy in the regular draft is you get the luxury of now I get to pivot.
You don't feel obligated like if you had Kelsey, you're playing him 100% of those weeks. You have to, even though no joke, it was going to outperform him by five points. So it gives you some flexibility. You can go back to the drawing board.
You can reroll the Titan. This is also a great tip for long term dynasty players. You know, if you listen to the offices, you know, I don't like drafting rookie tight ends and dynasty. They're much further down than the ADP on my, you know, my strategy, but I love trading for him later.
You know, you couldn't trade for Kyle Pitts early. You could later when he didn't, you know, train the bride. Train the bride was like, you know, you could have gotten him so cheap after his rookie year, even a little bit into his sophomore year. He was undrafted last year.
Yeah. And so it's like, yeah, trade for these guys. I love that tip for both redrafts. Just being conscious of it mid season to make a move for a league winning tight end.
I think it's important. Number six. I call this one stacks on stacks on stacks. Stacks on stacks.
Yeah, baby. It's this is a tip and a trick for the foot clam because we want the foot glands when championships not just have a great season. We want you have a great season, but we want you to win championships and stacks are an advantage. A quarterback wide receiver stack.
It's often thought of for DFS and best ball formats. But people don't think about that for redraft and dynasty enough. It's becoming a little bit more common. It needs to be more common.
Stacking increases your ceiling and it also gives you something you desperately need correlation. Correlation is your best friend and no one correlates better with your quarterback than the pass catcher on his own team. We did a stick to stacking article. What's that?
A stick to stacking article. It looked back at that over the last 20 years, looking at over 5,000 games played in the NFL and a stacked quarterback wide receiver combo, 15.3% chance of booming, which is hitting 40 combined fantasy points and unstacked quarterback wide receiver combo, only 12%. And that might sound like a small edge, but small edges matter. You know what they do?
They stack up. Boston. That's a swish, Mike. No, I didn't call it.
I didn't call it. I got it busted. I'm sorry. I don't want third place.
I want to win a championship. Stacks help. The best scores often come from a stack line. Just look at last year, the cowboy stack of Dak and CD lamb last year had a higher percentage of fantasy championships than any other combination, which I don't like because Andy had them.
How do we work out? Every championship. I've looked at this in our league of record. Every championship I have with one, two, three, all three championships.
Yeah, you can stop counting there. Um, I can. I know it was it was actually on the back of a sack. Yeah.
I mean, it was, I, you go way back to Peyton and Demarius, you know, last year, Dak and CD, um, I remember going back to Peyton Manning and Dallas Drake, like the stack. It's fun. The correlation is so powerful. You want to know why it works because when you get into this.
Clark, yeah. Okay. I thought it was a player. I didn't remember you said that was Drake.
I said, Dallas, that's a former NHL player. Um, Dallas Clark tied in for the Colts. Shout out Dallas Clark. Yeah.
Uh, I was straight. Okay. Last year, the, uh, when you get to the playoffs, you're playing the best team, right? It's like, Oh, you, you've got to play the other team that puts a bunch of points that combo last year in the semifinals and finals score 51 and a half points and 63.9 points.
That's why you won a championship band. So my favorite stacks this year, there are a couple ways to do it. You can either get your quarterback first. I like double tapping Jalen hurts the Vante Smith.
You're at that three four turn boom, baby. I just made my stack and I don't have to guess if I get it later. I love both players. I also think Patrick Mahomes is slightly undervalued this year compared to, you know, last year, at least then you can get rushy rice cheap.
Uh, my backdoor stacks would be, if I take T Higgins, I like combining him with Joe Burrow, Jaden Reed and Jordan Love later in the draft. And then if you're lucky enough, you know, I'm not targeting two or DAC personally in my leads, but if I'm at the beginning of the draft, if I'm at the two or the three and I end up with Tyree Kill or CD lamb, you're darn right that when I, when I'm later in the draft, I am now targeting the correlating DAC or two of. Yeah, that's a nice, uh, separator for those guys in that middle tier is to know you have the powerhouse wide receiver. Yeah.
All right. We'll take a quick break and come back with our top five. All right. We are going to jump in here.
Um, here we go. Number five. All right. I want to talk about quarterbacks and their ADP and the history of that because the, the quarterback position for fantasy football, it has been, there's been an evolution in the past in quite the timeline because when we first started the show, it was, uh, late round QB, uh, which that's another shout out to JJ for opening my eyes to that of, you could get a quarterback late.
Like it was, it was actually detrimental to your team to draft a quarterback early when you could just get a guy later, a guy that you know that runs and he's just, he's going to be points or I can stream, uh, against bad defenses and make up points. And over time, the, the fantasy football community, they're, they're getting wise to this, especially wise to the fact that a quarterback that runs, it is a true cheat code. And now those guys are moving up plus the NFL is changing. And guys that run are now also airing it out.
It's no longer Tim Tebow where it's, I need all the running because the passing won't be there. It's you get guys like Alan Hertz where you're getting a combination. That's why the guys are the superstuts. So I want to, I took a look back at the past four years because things have really been changing recently.
And I wanted to look how safe it has quarterback drafting actually been. It's still tough. It is still tough. The hit rate of a top 12 quarterback and ADP is at 48%.
And when I say a hit rate, I mean a guy finishing within one spot of his ADP. So like your quarterback three, if he finishes a quarterback four, I'm not going to hold that against him. That's fine. That's a fine pick.
But if you're a couple spots, I counted that as a bust and you were hitting at 48%. So then I said, well, is there a better way to look at it where it's not just top 12 broke them down into three tiers of ADP, QB one through four, five through eight, nine through 12. And the reason I did this is because the point, the expected point threshold, it's pretty close for those and they kind of separate drafting a top four QB, hitting at 44%. Okay.
That's for the margin of error, that's, that's very good. Quarterback five through eight, that dropped down to 37 and a half percent. That's, that is not so great. And then quarterback nine through 12, much, much higher at 62% granted.