100. Tom Chivers: Thomas Bayes, Bayesian statistics, and science journalism

Tom Chivers is a journalist who writes a lot about science and applied statistics. We talk about his new book on Bayesian statistics, the biography of Thomas Bayes, the history of probability theory, how Bayes can help with the replication crisis, how Tom became a journalist, and much more.BJKS Podcast is a podcast about neuroscience, psychology, and anything vaguely related, hosted by Benjamin James Kuper-Smith.Support the show: https://geni.us/bjks-patreonTimestamps0:00:00: Tom's book about Bayes & Bayesian statistics relates to many of my previous episodes and much of my own research0:03:12: A brief biography of Thomas Bayes (about whom very little is known)0:11:00: The history of probability theory 0:36:23: Bayesian songs0:43:17: Bayes & the replication crisis0:57:27: How Tom got into science journalism1:08:32: A book or paper more people should read1:10:05: Something Tom wishes he'd learnt sooner1:14:36: Advice for PhD students/postdocs/people in a transition periodPodcast linksWebsite: https://geni.us/bjks-podTwitter: https://geni.us/bjks-pod-twtTom's linksWebsite: https://geni.us/chivers-webTwitter: https://geni.us/chivers-twtPodcast: https://geni.us/chivers-podBen's linksWebsite: https://geni.us/bjks-webGoogle Scholar: https://geni.us/bjks-scholarTwitter: https://geni.us/bjks-twtReferences and linksEpisode with Stuart Ritchie: https://geni.us/bjks-ritchieScott Alexander: https://www.astralcodexten.com/Bayes (1731). Divine benevolence, or an attempt to prove that the principal end of the divine providence and government is the happiness of his creatures. Being an answer to a pamphlet entitled Divine Rectitude or an inquiry concerning the moral perfections of the deity with a refutation of the notions therein advanced concerning beauty and order, the reason of punishment and the necessity of a state of trial antecedent to perfect happiness.Bayes (1763). An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London.Bellhouse (2004). The Reverend Thomas Bayes, FRS: a biography to celebrate the tercentenary of his birth. Project Euclid.Bem (2011). Feeling the future: experimental evidence for anomalous retroactive influences on cognition and affect. Journal of personality and social psychology.Chivers (2024). Everything is Predictable: How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World.Chivers & Chivers (2021). How to read numbers: A guide to statistics in the news (and knowing when to trust them).Chivers (2019). The Rationalist's Guide to the Galaxy: Superintelligent AI and the Geeks Who Are Trying to Save Humanity's Future.Clarke [not Black, as Tom said] (2020). Piranesi.Goldacre (2009). Bad science.Goldacre (2014). Bad pharma: how drug companies mislead doctors and harm patients.Simmons, Nelson & Simonsohn (2011). False-positive psychology: Undisclosed flexibility in data collection and analysis allows presenting anything as significant. Psychological Science.