#11 – The coming decade in tech, the 2020s, and its impact on the world we live in

In this episode, we will start discussing the 2020s. We will introduce a unique and novel framework that we will follow around scenario planning, frame when exactly the 2020s start (hint: starts with a C and ends with 19), debate the macro landscape - both governmental/geopolitical and non-governmental and finalize with the user paradigms around Work, Home and Mobility. We will continue this discussion of the 2020s in the next episodes, including the second part of our analysis of the 2020s, in which we will delve into the future of Energy + Climate Change, Healthcare, Education, Financial, Retail & Commerce, Leisure & Entertainment and Social & Communication. Look out for episode 12.  Navigation: Introduction (01:24) Section 1 - When did the 2020s start? (02:41) Section 2 - Macro, World Governance, Geopolitics and Non-Governmental (03:24) Section 3 - User Paradigms (28:08) Conclusion (53:49) Our co-hosts: Bertrand Schmitt, Tech Entrepreneur, co-founder and Chairman at App Annie, @bschmitt Nuno Goncalves Pedro, Investor, co-Founder and Managing Partner of Strive Capital, @ngpedro Our show: Tech DECIPHERED brings you the Entrepreneur and Investor views on Big Tech, VC and Start-up news, opinion pieces and research. We decipher their meaning, and add inside knowledge and context. Being nerds, we also discuss the latest gadgets and pop culture news. Subscribe To Our Podcast Full transcription: may contain unintentionally confusing, inaccurate and/or amusing transcription errors Intro (01:24) Nuno: In today's episode, episode 11 we will start talking about the 2020s, the decade that we have ahead of us. We will drive this into different episodes and we will choose a framework that's a little bit different than those normally followed by people that we normally listen to. We will choose a scenario planning framework. The difference between a scenario planning framework and simply a forecast framework is in forecasting. We're trying to extrapolate the future from where we start today. In a scenario planning exercise, we really doing a little bit of time traveling to start with. We're moving ourselves into the future and to 2025, 2029 and we're trying to figure out, from there, what things would need to happen to give rise to those scenarios. In some cases, we will share very strong views, which we hope you're okay with, but in others we will really structure two or three potential scenarios for some of the elements that we will discuss. The objective is to start the discussion going and to the best of our knowledge, really frame what's ahead of us in the next five to 10 years. Section 1 - When did the 2020s started? (02:41) Bertrand:  We will start with, where does it start? When did the 2020s started? And I guess everyone will agree that right now under shelter in place we have a pretty momentous event with us. We're in the middle of COVID-19 emergency, we are in a new world, a brave new world, I guess, and that's how the 2020s started. Obviously it will be more difficult to guess exactly when this decade will be over, beyond, the digits, but more based on inflection points. Nuno: So we start with crisis. Bertrand: We start with crisis. Hopefully we don't end with crisis  Nuno: It seems like every decade has been defined by crisis. So the likelihood of that we shall see.   Bertrand: Indeed Section 2 - Macro, World Governance, Geopolitics, Non-Governmental (03:24) Nuno: We are gonna talk about scenarios for what the world will look like in 2029, 2030, from what I call the outlandish, to the predictable. And we're going to start with the macro space, world governance, geopolitical, and non-governmental elements. 2.1 Covid-19 impact So we'll start with coronavirus, which is obviously in our minds today, and we've already dedicated episode 9A and 9B to the discussion around coronavirus. So today we will not repeat what we discussed in that episode. So go back to episode 9A and 9B to really see our views on what's happening with coronavirus. Rather, we're going to focus a little bit further out on what we see  from that impact. 2.2 Government interventions / regulations Bertrand: Yes, I think it makes totally sense. So let's move to government interventions, government regulations, where do we see the world ending in that decade. Personally,  I am definitely expecting more and more regulations, at least in tech. I'm not saying we should wish that because actually, you could argue that some of these regulations at least played a role in where we are today, which is not a great situation regarding COVID-19. We had maybe too much regulations. We have seen that some regulations have been actually removed in the emergency. Now you can do in the US medicine across state lines, you can do remote medicine for instance. So maybe there is some positive regulation actually going on, meaning less of it.  But on the other end, it's very clear we should end up with more in many ways. If we think about fake news, if we think about elections, it's highly probable that we will end this decade with a lot more, and what we know today as social platforms might have a very very different face as a result, because they're often the target of regulations. Privacy is another one. There has been a lot of changes in the past decade with GDPR, with now some new California regulations. How far will it go? It's highly probable there will be more of it. What is very highly probable is that it will be everywhere. What you have in US and Europe will be there for the rest of the world. That would be at least my expectation.  Another question because we see that a lot, is around breaking down some big tech companies. I don't know if we will see that, but it's definitely a possibility that more in that direction. What's your take  Nuno: Nuno?   So I would do the time traveling, the time-traveling piece and talk about government roles to start with. I think all the topics you mentioned are very much top of mind. But if we look maybe 5 to 10 years ahead, what will be the role of government. And for me, scenario one is, as this scenario where we will have democratic governments elected that are not exceptionally competent, but they're whatever the people choose, that are most of the time ill prepared for crisis, but otherwise do a decent job and we're all happy with that.  I think the second scenario to go a little bit more extreme, is what I would call mummy governments, and we end up in governments that basically we expect that everything will be taken care of for us. So we expect government takes care of our infrastructure, they care of our wellbeing, of our health. And in that scenario, even countries like the US will migrate more and more to a sustainable system where people do have access to healthcare, where people do have access to justice, and do have access to all the infrastructure they need to have, which today they can't take for granted. So it's sort of the mummy logic. The government will take care of us. They need to take care of us because we've had a pandemic, maybe we'll have another one who knows, but we need to have a government and institutions that really take care of what we need to do.  The other extreme, on the other hand, is sort of governments die in some ways. Governments are there just to manage the upper layers, and the basic infrastructure of the country. But in some ways, the private sector once and for all just fully takes over. And that scenario would be a scenario under which our belief in the government is no longer there. We believe that the companies around us, are really much better equipped to serve our needs, to serve our privacy or lack thereof if we're willing to accept it. And in that scenario. You know, our view on the governments is just,  for the basic things and basic regulation.  So if we look at three scenarios as potential scenarios, I would say, you probably have the most regulation in scenario one and two.  And in the other scenario that I just talked about, which is the mummy government that takes care of us and that mommy government, as you said, all the key issues are around, undue power of the private sector, issues around privacy, issues around access to healthcare, issues around any regulatory intervention that allows things to be fair and non discriminatory.  Whereas you move to a scenario where we just stop trusting our governments, we're going to be in a world that really is more and more in the hands of some of the giants around the world. The energy giants, the financial service giants, and obviously the tech giants.  Bertrand: I think it is not just a question of trusting, not trusting our governments, or system of government. My take for instance is that it's clear that at least in the West, the response to this COVID crisis has been pretty poor, while in some other countries like Asia it has been pretty great, much less infection rate, much less death. And the way I'm looking at it is, maybe we end up with a similar system of government, but what is changing is who is in charge. Do we move to a place where instead of the lawyers being in charge in many governments, do we move to a world where we have more experts, more scientists? Interestingly enough, there are a few countries that are actually led, by scientists or former scientists that did actually pretty well during this crisis. So do we move to a place where it's a new type of politicians that are taking over because we have been proven that we cannot trust, the current type of politicians but the system can sustain a different approach, a new type of politicians that might be less populist, more focused really on the good the people. And, I think what we went through is also showing us some level of incompetence at so many level that it's really scary. So will it push some change. I think it can only come from the bottom up, from the citizens, for this change. I'm hopeful....