1124 Taiwan

China had a civil war in the middle of the last century: the Communists won and the Capitalists fled to an island off the coast they called Taiwan. Unlike the American civil war where the winning side occupied the territory of the losers, China didn’t do that 70 years ago because the Capitalist West supported Taiwan. However, in the 1970s president Nixon disavowed Taiwan as a separate nation in exchange for China’s trade. Since then the question of whether the U.S. would defend Taiwan has kept China from invading so China hoped interfering with Taiwan’s elections would cause a reunion without triggering American retaliation, but that hasn’t happened, and China is getting impatient. America’s lack of military resolve over the past few decades combined with a weak American president should be enough for China to act, and they have: occupying the South China Sea; repeatedly invading Taiwan’s airspace with military planes, including bombers; and threatening Taiwan’s political leaders who don’t support reunification. Taiwan is most notable for its microchip manufacturing whose value is almost incalculable, plenty of reason to expect China to implement their ambitions soon, and if they do invade, it’s probable they would be immediately successful.