1161. Russian Peace is NOT Peace - But War By Other Means with Provocation & Threat!?

Simon Smith is Chair of the Ukraine Forum Steering Committee at Chatham House. He served as British Ambassador to Ukraine (2012–2015) during the Euromaidan Revolution, Russia's annexation of Crimea, and the outbreak of the Donbas war. Before Kyiv, he was Director for Russia, South Caucasus and Central Asia at the UK Foreign & Commonwealth Office (2005–2007), giving him extensive experience in British policy toward Russia and the post-Soviet region. Smith is regarded as one of the UK's most experienced diplomats on Eastern Europe. ----------John Lough is an Associate Fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House (since 2009) and Head of Foreign Policy at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre, a London- and Washington-based think tank. He began his career at the Soviet Studies (later Conflict Studies) Research Centre, specialising in Soviet and Russian security policy. John has had a long career spanning government, diplomacy, business and academia. He previously served as the first NATO representative based in Moscow following the end of the Cold War, where he worked on NATO–Russia relations during a formative period. ----------LINKS:https://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/05/how-russia-ukraine-ceasefire-could-imperil-ukrainian-and-european-securityhttps://www.chathamhouse.org/about-us/our-people/orysia-lutsevychhttps://www.chathamhouse.org/about-us/our-people/keir-gileshttps://icds.ee/en/the-russian-way-of-ceasefires-and-the-traps-it-sets-for-europe/----------SUPPORT THE CHANNEL:https://www.buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtainhttps://www.patreon.com/siliconcurtainhttps://www.gofundme.com/f/scaling-up-campaign-to-fight-authoritarian-disinformation----------TRUSTED CHARITIES ON THE GROUND:Car4Ukrainehttps://car4ukraine.com/en-US/campaignsDzyga's Pawhttps://dzygaspaw.com/projectsSuperhumans - Hospital for war traumashttps://superhumans.com/en/UNBROKEN - Treatment. Prosthesis. Rehabilitation for Ukrainians in Ukrainehttps://unbroken.org.ua/Come Back Alivehttps://savelife.in.ua/en/Chefs For Ukraine - World Central Kitchenhttps://wck.org/relief/activation-chefs-for-ukraineUNITED24 - An initiative of President Zelenskyyhttps://u24.gov.ua/Serhiy Prytula Charity Foundationhttps://prytulafoundation.orgNGO “Herojam Slava”https://heroiamslava.org/----------PLATFORMS:Substack: https://substack.com/@siliconcurtainTwitter: https://twitter.com/CurtainSiliconLinkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finkjonathan/Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/4thRZj6NO7y93zG11JMtqm----------DESCRIPTION:Why a Ceasefire Isn’t Peace: Russia’s War Aims, Negotiation Traps, and Western Complacency | Simon Smith & John LoughThe host interviews Chatham House’s Simon Smith and John Lough about why a ceasefire in Ukraine would not equal peace, citing the Korean Armistice as a warning that unresolved issues can harden into decades of confrontation. They argue Putin’s objectives—subjugating Ukraine, blocking its integration with Western or European security structures, enforcing demilitarization and political change in Kyiv—have not changed, making any pause potentially a chance for Russia to regroup. The discussion covers Ukraine’s strikes inside Russia, economic and recruitment pressures on Moscow, and risks of escalation against Ukrainian infrastructure. They stress Western political complacency, incremental support, and the danger that electorates may find a Russian victory “palatable,” arguing enforcement matters more than signatures in any talks. John Lough outlines likely Russian minimum demands, including full control of Donbas and removing Zelensky.----------