12-9-24 Why Earnings Can't Outgrow The Economy

Lance's Husbands' Christmas shopping warning service; markets are now in second week of sloppy trading. Portfolios out-of-balance will trigger volatility as managers adjust weighting. There is a possible correction coming, BUT markets could continue to rally all the way into the New Year. Tesla is up 54% since the election; a plethora of ETF's: all money flows feed into underlying stocks; $1-T into ETF's this year. Where will the next Trillion come from? What's the Risk for market correction? Volatility Index is down to 13; no one is betting on a crash. Where are the money in-flows originating? When inflation is better than deflation, all over the world. Markets have factored-in a 25-bp rate cut, but NOT a Fed pause. The problem with forecasting: Predictions must be precise, actionable, and time-specific. Why we watch train wrecks: Why not mandate a 20% correction each year? (Markets are so elevated, a 20% correction would be a drop in the bucket.) What happens if we have a 50% correction?? It'd put us back to where we were in 2020. Why banks failed in 1929 vs today: Depositors would not lose their money (FDIC). 2025 earnings growth estimate are 19% (vs 9% historically). Lance looks at cycles vs trends (Lance's first bank job). Cycle context & psychology. Most cycles are too long to be practical. "We must invest for the time frame in which we have control." Trend-following is better than cyclical tracking. Lance's 60th birthday, cursive writing, and Phoenician writing. The impact of not saving each year: Time frames are critical. SEG-1: Sloppy Trading Ahead SEG-2: Where's the Money Coming From? SEG-3: Why We Watch Train Crashes SEG-4: Cycles vs Trends Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRF6slc1bew&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "2025 – Do Economic Indicators Support Bullish Outlooks?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/2025-do-economic-indicators-support-bullish-outlooks/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Setting Up to Rally," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuRU3UTCD1Q&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1&t=2s ------- Our previous show is here: "Is Another Liquidity Crisis Near?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQFQg-9b9EQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=1&t=2277s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketCorrection #MarketExpectations #MarketVolatility #VolatilityIndex #WindowDressing #MarketTrend #PortfolioCleanUp #MarketExuberance #OverBoughtMarket #SP500 #MarketPullBack #MarketConsolidation #MutualFundDistributions #EarningsVsEconomy #MarketInsights #EconomicGrowth #CorporateProfits #InvestingWisely #MarketExpectations #PortfolioRealityCheck #InvestmentStrategy #FinancialPlanning #MarketTrends2024 #WealthManagement #MarketLeverage #SpeculationRisks #InvestmentTrends #FinancialWarnings #StockVolatility #StockMarketSpeculation #MarketVolatility #HighRiskInvesting #SpeculativeTrading #FinancialTrends2025 #TrumpAdministration #RegulatoryChanges #InvestingAdvice #Money #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing