#13. Marking the Future

Send us Fan MailWelcome back to the Poly Marks Podcast — your weekly reminder that betting on the future is easier than predicting it.This week we hit three big themes:A wild media-merger market (HBO/Warner + Netflix vs Paramount vs NO DEAL) and why “IP” might be the real prize in the AI eraCanada vs the U.S. recession odds (and whether the numbers can be “juiced”)Early 2028 election positioning: who might announce a presidential run before 2027, and why a “sprinkle” can still be a good tradeWe also detour into China vs U.S. economics, data centers, energy constraints, and whether AI is still early innings… or closer to a dot-com style reckoning.Not financial advice. Entertainment only.Chapters00:00 Cold open — “Delete this, lawyer” 01:10 HBO/Warner merger market: Netflix vs Paramount vs NO DEAL 12:40 AI + IP licensing (why libraries matter) 20:30 Canada recession bet: how it resolves + why it might hit 31:10 U.S. recession odds + tariffs + supply chain uncertainty 40:20 AI bubble “burst” market: what would need to happen 52:10 Venezuela tanker seizure bet: why another one won’t happen this year 58:30 2028 election odds: Kamala “sprinkle,” Newsom skepticism, who announces early 1:06:30 Wrap + year-end recap teaser