#13 – The coming decade in tech, the 2020s, and its impact on the world we live in – Part 3

In this, the third and final episode on the 2020s decade, we look forward, with our scenario planning methodology, into the late 2020s and specifically discuss Next Platforms & Structural Tech, Venture Capital & Start-ups and end with an overall framing of the decade ahead of us. This concludes our 2020s “Time Travel Trilogy”, in which in episode 11, we deep-dived into what lies ahead on the Governmental/Geopolitical and Non-Governmental arenas, as well as shifts in User Paradigms around Work, Home and Mobility. In episode 12, we continued projecting forward in the decade, delving into the future of Energy & Climate Change, Healthcare, Education, Financial Services, Retail & Commerce, Leisure & Entertainment and Social & Communication. Please listen to these episodes, as well. Navigation: Introduction (01:24) Section 1 - Next Platforms & Structural Tech (02:30) Section 2 - Venture Capital & Start-ups (32:48) Section 3 - Overall framing of the 2020s (50:46) Conclusion (56:07) Our co-hosts: Bertrand Schmitt, Tech Entrepreneur, co-founder and Chairman at App Annie, @bschmitt Nuno Goncalves Pedro, Investor, co-Founder and Managing Partner of Strive Capital, @ngpedro Our show: Tech DECIPHERED brings you the Entrepreneur and Investor views on Big Tech, VC and Start-up news, opinion pieces and research. We decipher their meaning, and add inside knowledge and context. Being nerds, we also discuss the latest gadgets and pop culture news. Subscribe To Our Podcast Full transcription: may contain unintentionally confusing, inaccurate and/or amusing transcription errors Intro (01:24) Nuno: In this episode 13, on the decade of the 2020s, the decade ahead of us, we will be resuming our scenario planning exercise for a couple of other topics. We will be discussing next platforms, technology infrastructure, and the structural tech layers, VCs and startups and how that world will evolve, and we will then bring it all together in some overall framing of the 2020s and their scenarios. For further reference, please listen to our episode 11 and 12, where we talk a lot about a variety of things: the home, work and mobility use cases, we discuss various industries like healthcare, energy, climate change. So listen to our previous episodes that are concluded today in our trilogy of the 2020s. Let's start today with next platforms, the scenarios for what the world will look like in 2029, 2030, around next platforms Section 1 - Next platforms & Structural Tech (02:30) Next platforms - Deep tech Bertrand:  So let's talk about deep tech and deep tech is a fantastic topic to start,   episode 13 today. There are of course, a lot of topics in deep tech and we cannot cover all of them, but let's start with space. I think what has been amazing was just a few days ago, SpaceX, sent humans to the space station and it worked,  they are in great shape. I believe it was nine years, since the last time astronauts have been sent to the ISS from the US, not needing a hitch from the Russians.  I must say it has been amazing. The last 10 years, what SpaceX has achieved, moving from... I'm not sure they had a single rocket working 10 years ago, to sending now humans, and not just sending humans to the ISS, but sending humans through a very, very cost-effective rocket with a state-of-the-art shuttle. It's really amazing. So when you think about 10 years from now, what could be there? Could we ready be on Mars? Nuno what's  Nuno: I don't know. everyone keeps saying it's the next frontier. There are certainly a lot of things that we can do in space, around low orbits, around communication, around infrastructure that helps us, for example, visualize what's happening earth, and making more powerful, our decision making processes here on earth. So there's certainly a lot of potential that I see in space. I'm not sure we're gonna start colonizing things by the end of the decade, so I'm not sure we'll have people in the moon or we will get to Mars or will do a variety of things by the end of the decade. Fascinating times, the reduction of cost is extreme, which, you know, creates a bunch of possibilities in terms of the technology infrastructure that we start setting around us in space, but I'm less positive on the whole final frontier we will start colonizing other areas of our solar system.   Bertrand: Because if I look at what SpaceX helped create, I mean, there was a wave of new space, companies, but a few years ago it started to not be as hot anymore, probably in 2017 was the peak. I wonder if what SpaceX just achieved might help generate even more interest, in term of startups and investment in the space. I mean, this is a very, very big, milestone they achieved. So for me, it would be interesting, yes, 10 years sounds optimistic, but maybe the 2030's would be the decade we finally go to Mars. 2020's might the moon, or if we think like, Jeff Bezos, may be another approach is to actually bring asteroids closer to us. I don't know if it's truly a low earth orbit, maybe not too, not to low orbit, and to start building stuff inside these asteroids. Because obviously there is a huge amount of space available inside an asteroid, and you could, hollow the asteroid, take stuff from what's inside and ultimately build a new habitat,  for people there. So, I actually believe it might be  potentially a smarter option than trying to go to Mars, but it's tough not to recognize the attraction of another planet in our minds and imagination.  Personally very impressed and amazed by what Elon Musk has achieved, and others with SpaceX.  Nuno: And there are probably some quick wins, some low hanging fruits from space exploration that we have not fully maximized yet, and as the cost comes down we can do a lot more exploration, bring new materials back to earth, new that are incredibly valid and valuable even before colonization becomes an important item. So for me that's the exciting piece of what we're seeing in space. It's the usage of low orbit, the usage of satellites in a different position and different use cases that we've done in the past, the maximization of coverage of earth, and all those elements added to exploration materials and things we can bring back for me is very, very powerful. That we can do that sustainably with lower and lower risks to the humans involved is already a huge win. And then, you know, mining asteroids, using asteroids as habitats, inhabiting the moon, inhabiting other parts, getting to Mars, maybe that's sort of an afterthought that's on Horizon 3, so to speak, element to it. In some cases I think exciting times ahead, in space exploration, but we won't get Star Trek just yet.  Bertrand: Indeed  maybe one last point you talked about satellites.  Definitely, there is a fight around constellation of satellites. SpaceX has its own. Others are trying. Some are going bankrupt. Some went bankrupt one or two decades ago. So that's also another angle will we see more, way more satellites in low earth orbit or different orbits. That's definitely an interesting question, and with space getting cheaper, definitely it's a possibility. The question would be, what's the benefit? What's a use case?  Nuno: And moving  maybe the discussion to other things more here in our earthly surroundings still a little bit in the air, like drones. I know you and I have slightly different views on, you know, how much drones from a civil perspective will occupy a space, in particular in terms of logistics, and how we will exist with these, electronics around us.  I'm relatively bullish. I believe by the end of the decade, we will have deliveries made by drone. We will have the ability to deliver things around the world, even long distance by drones or similar types of constructs.  And that will change a lot of things,  cause we know today, there's a really significant part of traffic that is actually driven by logistics and by on the ground logistics. So the usage of the air as a new mechanism is something that I'm excited about.  And if we're all traveling less, there will be less planes in the air, so there'll be less things for us to worry about. But certainly, I'm a big believer in drones as a logistic mechanism. On the area of transportation of people by drones, a little bit more skeptical. I think we will find different ways of lifting up people and moving them around. Over this decade, I'm not sure they will become mainstream. There's also economic reasons, obviously, the airline industry is getting super affected by what's happening right now with COVID, and so there are a number of incentives for industry to recoup its costs and also continue to exist. So maybe a little bit more skeptical on transportation of people, very, very bullish on transportation of goods. Bertrand: You already have today, drones, transporting some specific products. If I take in the medical space, Zipline, for instance in Africa,  Nuno: investments at Grishin Robotics. Bertrand:  And is launching drones with blood plasma or medication so that it can be made available very, very quickly to some remote hospitals where it would have taken way too long to get the appropriate resource and where they have limited storage capacity. So that's for me an example of something that works. Definitely less bullish that it would go at scale. For me it will stay into some niche product where the high cost is worth the immediacy of the delivery, but we will see. Where I am probably more bullish is on robotics, automation. So, stuff that, mostly, is on wheels, or is not even on wheels because it's not moving. It's your robot on a chain. So that, I can't see that there would be a lot happening. You have cameras getting cheaper, we have AI system technologies getting cheaper, more efficient, and we'll talk more about this. So, I can see big change happening, all of this is around probably the big, umbrella of Industry 4.0. And,...