14: A “Super” El Niño is coming. What does it mean for New Mexico?

Guest: Aidan Manning This week Rin Tara and John Fleck are joined by Aidan Manning from New Mexico Wild’s Rivers and Waters Program to talk about El Niño and what it means for New Mexico’s weather and climate.Dr. Manning explains how a shift in temperatures in the equatorial Pacific can have big impacts on the patterns of wet and dry weather, tipping the odds Since Rin, John, and Aidan recorded this conversation, the forecasts have been updated. Odds of a moderate or stronger El Nino are up to a staggering 98% for the winter, with a 63% chance of a very strong event. But Dr. Manning points out the risk of misinterpreting what that means. El Niño tips the odds toward a wet winter across the southwest, but a stronger El Niño doesn’t necessarily translate to a wetter winter. And for the larger river basin communities New Mexico is a part of, El Niño generally doesn’t translate into odds of a wetter winter in the Upper Colorado River Basin, which is crucial for the West’s water supplies.To follow the development of El Niño:·      NOAA’s El Niño/La Niña background·      NOAA’s official ENSO tracking·      Relative Oceanic Niño Index·      Mulitivariate ENSO Index