1482 The Fourth Turning

There are an abundance of crackpot theories claiming the ability to predict the future, especially when it comes to societies coming and going, from the Bible to Nostradamus to Nietzsche. A popularly-cited book from turn of the century Western prognosticators titled “The Fourth Turning,” is a psychohistorical theory describing recurring cycles, called “turnings.” Historical events are associated with recurring archetypes lasting around 21 years, each different socially, politically, and economically. They are part of a larger cyclical of 85 years. It starts with strong institutions and communitarian values, but each succeeding generational archetype attack and weaken institutions in the name of autonomy and individualism, which eventually creates a tumultuous political environment and ultimate crisis, from which a “transformative figure” emerges to restart the cycle. One of the original book’s authors, Neil Howe, recently published a followup volume claiming that the fourth turning, the crisis, is happening now. He says it began with the Great Recession and will end in the 2030s, assigning each of the generational cohorts to each turning: Boomers, Gen X, Millennials and Gen Z. However, the only truth in the theory is that generations are different from one another. His bias towards elitism permeates the argument, and his condensing attitude and lack of self-awareness is indicative of a narcissist. Ironically, even if his theory is correct, he denies Trump as the transformative figure. It’s obvious that Trump is the most transformative president since FDR, maybe since Theodore Roosevelt. He affects people emotionally, and it’s not just politics but also business & entertainment. In fact, he has a psychiatric condition named after him, “Trump Derangement Syndrome,” colloquially termed TDS, that Howe apparently has.