#151 — Eddie Fishman: Choke Points and the Hidden Levers of Power

Eddie Fishman is a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, adjunct professor of International & Public Affairs, and author of Choke Points: How the Global Economy Became a Weapon of War. A former U.S. State Department strategist, he served on the Secretary of State’s Policy Planning Staff and Foreign Affairs Policy Board, and led Russia/Europe sanctions policy—bringing a rare, in-the-room perspective to how economic power really works.In this conversation, we trace how “choke points”—where one nation dominates and substitutes are scarce—have turned minerals, microchips, and money flows into the quiet weapons of great-power rivalry. Eddie unpacks the geo-economic “impossible trinity”—why you can’t maximize interdependence, economic security, and geopolitical calm all at once—and what that trade-off means for leaders making bets on AI, batteries, and supply chains.Whether you’re steering strategy, procurement, or policy, this episode will change how you spot fragile dependencies, anticipate where pressure will build next, and engage policymakers before the rules harden around you.In this episode we cover:Why a true “choke point” = dominance plus low substitutability The geo-economic impossible trinity and its implications for business strategyWhere the next choke points may emerge: AI compute, batteries/EVs, and the energy transitionThe firm’s role: don’t just adapt to policy—shape it (how to engage upstream, practically)Industrial policy realities: U.S. moves on rare earths and semis—benefits, risks, and tolerance for failureEpisode Timeline:00:00 – Cold open: rare earths and leverage02:00 – Guest introduction and Eddie’s background05:45 - Strategy as “winning tomorrow,” not just today07:02 - Defining choke points (dominance + substitution)11:20 - The “impossible trinity” explained with historical arcs27:05 - Should firms adapt or shape policy?30:05 - Emerging choke points: AI chips, batteries, EVs38:05 - U.S. industrial policy (MP Materials, Intel) and what comes nextAdditional Resources:Book: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/726149/chokepoints-by-edward-fishman/X (Twitter): https://x.com/edwardfishman?lang=enLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/edward-fishmanThank you to our executive producer Zach Ness, our producer Nazanin Homayoun Jam and our editor James Pearce. If you enjoyed this episode, please follow, download, and subscribe. I’m your host, Kaihan Krippendorff—thank you for listening.Follow us at outthinker.com/podcast