179. The future of the Auto Industry: Winners, challengers and zombies - May25

On one hand, tariffs are causing significant disruption in the global automotive industry. On the other, the electric vehicle (EV) market continues to surge, seemingly unaffected. According to the latest Q1 2025 data from Rho Motion, 4.1 million EVs were sold globally in Q1 2025—a 29% year-over-year increase compared to Q1 2024. Growth is particularly strong in China (+36%), followed by Europe (+22%) and North America (+16%).To help make sense of these opposing dynamics—and to assess which OEMs are likely to lead or fall behind—Laurent and Gerard have brought in a top-tier expert: Michael J. Dunne. Michael is the CEO of Dunne Insights LLC, a San Diego-based firm specializing in electric vehicles, autonomous driving, and battery supply chains. With over three decades of experience, Michael has held prominent roles including President of General Motors Indonesia and Managing Director of JD Power China. He is also the author of American Wheels, Chinese Roads (2011), and the host of the podcast Driving With Dunne.Key Insights from Our Conversation:China: BYD reigns supreme, followed by legacy brands, tech giants, and emerging players.Japan: Toyota, the shogun of the market, stands tall—while the rest struggle to keep up.Korea: A tale of strong potential under threat.Germany: VW appears stuck in reverse, Mercedes feels increasingly "Chinese," and BMW navigates a narrow path.USA: Stellantis, Ford, and GM—industries in limbo, often described as “zombies.”The Wild Card: Tesla. With Elon at the helm, anything is possible—genius or chaos.Across all regions, we forecast who the likely winners are, who may barely survive, and who seem destined for the dustbin of history.