#194 - What Will Be The Bottom For BTC?

Build sovereign wealth, join Australia’s Fastest Growing FREE crypto community 👉 https://www.skool.com/matthewfraser🔗 TAKE ACTION:Borrow against Bitcoin (no selling): https://learn.ledn.io/collective Australia's #1 Crypto Exchange: https://coinstash.com.au/auth/signup?a=cryptocollectiveSecure your Bitcoin: https://bit.ly/TheBitcoinWay-Schedule-a-CallSponsorships/Collabs: [email protected] the Hard Money Room: https://www.skool.com/the-hard-money-room/about?ref=ada9802add0e4e5386115475e7e3848c In this new episode, Matthew sits down with Joe Consorti, the head of growth at Thayer and one of the few macro analysts who accurately mapped the 2022 Bitcoin bottom, to unpack why Bitcoin’s current drop isn’t signalling what most retail investors think it is. What you’ll learn:◼️ Why Bitcoin bottoms take time and how the 12–16 month cycle window works◼️ The importance of the 200‑week moving average and why BTC often finds its floor within 5–10% of it◼️ How whales, long‑term holders and ETFs are signalling that the bottom is close◼️ Why smart money increases accumulation before the bottom, not at the exact low◼️ The strategy Joe recommends for navigating volatility with confidenceTimestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:01:02 - Is the Bitcoin Low In?00:01:13 - Factors Influencing Bitcoin Bottoms00:02:06 - Timing the Bitcoin Bottom00:02:37 - 200-Week Moving Average00:03:09 - Historical Context of Bitcoin Bottoms00:04:02 - Impact of FTX Collapse00:04:49 - Potential for Another Leg Down00:05:00 - Four-Year Cycle and Bitcoin Halving00:06:17 - Supply Shock and Market Psychology00:07:09 - Predictability of Bitcoin Cycles00:08:32 - Long-Term Holder Realized Price00:09:25 - Smart Money and Long-Term Holders00:10:53 - Historical Ranging Periods00:12:07 - Expected Bottom Range00:13:00 - Whale Accumulation00:14:07 - Whale and Long-Term Holder Behavior00:15:09 - Largest Ever Whale Accumulation00:16:03 - Long-Term Holder Net Position Change00:17:58 - Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows00:18:41 - ETF Buying Behavior00:20:17 - ETF Outflows and Inflows00:21:09 - Three Major On-Chain Signals00:22:01 - Smart Money Accumulation Strategy00:23:08 - Timing the Bottom00:24:00 - Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) Strategy00:25:16 - Investment Strategy for Large Sums00:27:08 - Decision Matrix for Allocation00:28:19 - Long-Term Perspective on Bitcoin Price00:28:46 - Potential Positive Black Swan Events00:29:29 - Geopolitical Game of Bitcoin Accumulation00:30:36 - US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve00:31:47 - Global Trust and Bitcoin00:32:33 - BRICS Nations and Bitcoin00:33:44 - Bitcoin Arms Race00:34:47 - US Military and Bitcoin00:35:08 - Introduction to Hard Money Room__________Avoid fakes- Follow the ‘real’ Matthew Fraser:https://www.instagram.com/immatthewfraser/ https://www.tiktok.com/@immatthewfraser https://www.facebook.com/immatthewfraser/ https://x.com/MatthewFraser https://bit.ly/MatthewFraserLinkedInFollow Joe Consorti:https://www.youtube.com/@JoeConsortihttps://www.instagram.com/joe.consorti/https://www.linkedin.com/in/joeconsorti/__________**DISCLAIMER**This is not financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. I'm not a licensed advisor. Bitcoin and SMSF strategies can carry significant risks; consult a qualified tax accountant and SMSF specialist before making any decisions. I may earn affiliate commissions from links I share, but this doesn't affect your cost.