20: Mexico’s Cartels, Violence, and the Rule of Law After the Fall of El Mencho

The Feb. 22, 2026, death of cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera, head of Mexico’s Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), has reignited debate about security, governance, and the strength of Mexico’s institutions. In the days following the operation, cartel-linked violence spread across multiple states — underscoring both the reach of criminal networks and the risks of confronting them. Tony Payan, director of the Baker Institute’s Claudio X. González Center for the United States and Mexico, joins Ambassador David M. Satterfield to examine what Oseguera’s death could mean for Mexico’s fight against organized crime and the evolving role of the United States in that effort. They discuss U.S. involvement in the operation, the political and security pressures facing President Claudia Sheinbaum as she intensifies the government’s campaign against cartels, and the potential implications for U.S.–Mexico security cooperation. At the heart of the conversation is a critical question: Will this operation strengthen the rule of law in Mexico or trigger another cycle of violence? This conversation was recorded on Feb. 26, 2026 Mentioned in this episode: Tony Payan Listen and subscribe to “Baker Briefing” on Apple, Spotify, or your preferred podcast platform.   You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.