2015: Value at Risk (VaR) for Real Estate Investors: Calculation Methods and Risk Comparison

In this episode, Jason Hartman discusses the ongoing shortage of home listings in the United States, which may last for up to 28 years due to low-interest mortgages. He explores potential solutions like portable mortgages and eliminating the due-on-sale clause but highlights the challenges associated with them. Despite the lower demand and affordability issues, the severe lack of inventory is restricting home sales, making a housing crash unlikely. Jason also emphasizes the resilience of the suburban market and the revival it is experiencing as more Americans, including millennials, choose to settle down in suburbs rather than cities. Jason also welcomes back Manny Kim who explains the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) and its significance for investors, particularly in real estate and income properties. VaR is a statistical measure commonly used by investment banks to assess the potential risk and probability of losses in a portfolio or group of assets over a specific time frame. Manny discusses three methods of measuring VaR: historical data analysis, parametric method, and Monte Carlo simulations. He focuses on the historical data approach to illustrate the calculation of VaR for stock markets and income properties. The analysis reveals that the stock market carries a higher risk compared to income properties, with greater potential for losses at given odds. By quantifying the potential losses, VaR provides investors with a precise measure of risk, allowing them to make informed investment decisions. Website: https://gizacapital.com/ #ValueAtRisk #InvestmentRisk #RealEstateInvesting #IncomeProperties #StockMarket #RiskManagement   Key Takeaways: Jason's editorial 1:20 Greetings from Cannes, France  2:25 A majority of counties have listings below 2017 levels 4:24 Breaking the lock on the property market 8:29 Disruptive tech that increases housing supply is needed 9:38 Hardly an change in housing supply since 2017 10:13 Existing home sales fell 23% in April 13:36 Top metros with the most foreclosure starts in Q1 2023 15:20 Millennials and America's surprise revival: The Suburbs Manny Kim interview 20:12 Value at Risk (VaR) and you as an income property investor 21:55 Three ways to measure VaR 23:24 Historical Data method for stocks and income property 28:12 Comparison: Stocks and Homes Website: https://gizacapital.com/   Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com