2025 predictions REVIEW

Welcome to the 2025 predictions REVIEW! Audio above and written post below.Happy New Year!This post will look at what I said would happen in 2025, as well as a scoring system for those predictions.Spoiler alert - Just like the NY Jets, I didn’t exactly excel in 2025.Before we crack on, just a reminder that the 6 ‘crazy?’ predictions for 2026 post and audio can be accessed below.Back to the 2025 review and the predictions from 2nd January 2025 are below.2025 predictions REVIEW!I will give one point to myself for every correct answer and half a point if the prediction has partially been successful.1 - Gold to top $3,000 and then sell off back down to $2,200The thought process behind this was that there would be a worldwide recession that would make 1929 look like a walk in the park. That did not materialise and so the latter part of this prediction now looks a bit silly.Gold certainly topped $3,000, dipped below it very briefly in April and it never looked back!Result = 0.5 points2 - Worldwide recession which might be worse than 1929April 2025 and ‘Liberation Day’ could have been the start of something gnarly, but some swift back peddling by the current US Administration meant that the markets saw a swift rebound and more than perfect V shaped recovery,Onwards and upwards was the theme from April 7th!Result = 0 points3 - Keir Starmer to be ousted as Prime MinisterMany people would have liked to have seen this happen, and I am sure that many people would still like to see this happen.Despite a plethora of mistakes and mind-boggling decisions, he is still Prime Minister.Result = 0 points4 - Oil to drop down to $50 a barrel (Brent Crude)The idea for this was tied into a worldwide recession. This did not materialise, but Brent Crude has had a very poor year none the less. I think that Oil is setting up for a potentially huge couple of years ahead!Result = 0 points5 - Bank of England base rate down to 4% and inflation to creep up againReducing rates whilst in the midst of an inflationary environment is NOT a good idea. That being said, I am not a central bank! The Bank of England base rate started 2025 at 4.50% and finished the year at 3.75%.The annual inflation rate for the UK was 3.5% in November 2025 and have put a couple of links below.CPIH ANNUAL RATE 00: ALL ITEMS 2015=100 - Office for National StatisticsConsumer price inflation, UK - Office for National StatisticsResult = 1 point6 - A new international monetary system will be officially announcedBRICS rumblings were here and there throughout 2025, but no new international monetary system was officially announced as far as I’m concerned.On BRICS, and they made massive strides in 2025 by completing their supply and payment chains and thus pushing metals pricing power eastwards. You can read more about that here.Result = 0 pointsOverall = 1.5 points out of 6 points availableBetter luck in 2026!This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit contrariancapitalist.substack.com/subscribe