2026 03/02 - 03/06. Wall Street rattled by double black swan as Middle East conflict and U.S. job losses spark surge in energy prices and stagflation fears

In a stunning double-black-swan event, Wall Street was rattled by escalating military tensions in the Middle East and a sharp contraction in the U.S. labor market, resulting in a significant spike in energy prices. Major stock indices suffered steep weekly declines as mounting fears of stagflation shifted investor sentiment from optimistic growth to a cautious, risk-averse posture. This shift follows a troubling loss of over 90,000 jobs, further compounded by rising inflation and ongoing supply chain disruptions. As the market braces for the impact, eyes will be on upcoming inflation reports and consumer sentiment surveys that will shape the economic outlook.-----* S&P //* 3/02 M. 6,881.62 /* 3/03 T. 6,816.63 /* 3/04 W. 6,869.50 /* 3/05 T. 6,830.71 /* 3/06 F. 6,740.05 /--* Nasdaq //* 3/02 M. 22,748.86 /* 3/03 T. 22,516.69 /* 3/04 W. 22,807.48 /* 3/05 T. 22,748.99 /* 3/06 F. 22,387.68 /--* DJI //* 3/02 M. 48,904.78 /* 3/03 T. 48,501.27 /* 3/04 W. 48,739.41 /* 3/05 T. 47,954.74 /* 3/06 F. 47,501.55 /-----* 2-yr T Bond //* 3/02 M. 3.487 /* 3/03 T. 3.500 /* 3/04 W. 3.543 /* 3/05 T. 3.599 /* 3/06 F. 3.556 /--* 10-yr T Bond //* 3/02 M. 4.052 /* 3/03 T. 4.057 /* 3/04 W. 4.082 /* 3/05 T. 4.146 /* 3/06 F. 4.132 /-----* S&P ROC //* 3/02 M. 0.040 /* 3/03 T. -0.944 /* 3/04 W. 0.776 /* 3/05 T. -0.565 /* 3/06 F. -1.327 /--* VIX //* 3/02 M. 21.44 /* 3/03 T. 23.57 /* 3/04 W. 21.15 /* 3/05 T. 23.75 /* 3/06 F. 29.49 /--* MOVE //* 3/02 M. 73.21 /* 3/03 T. 77.75 /* 3/04 W. 70.03 /* 3/05 T. 74.53 /* 3/06 F. 81.26 /--* Shiller PE //* 3/03 T. 39.66 /* 3/04 W. 39.94 /* 3/05 T. 39.71 /* 3/06 F. 39.18 /-----* BCOM //* 3/02 M. 123.8087 /* 3/03 T. 124.7281 /* 3/04 W. 124.5732 /* 3/05 T. 126.7903 /* 3/06 F. 131.4871 /--* BCOMENTR //* 3/02 M. 77.2307 /* 3/03 T. 80.9939 /* 3/04 W. 80.0075 /* 3/05 T. 84.4476 /* 3/06 F. 90.4505 /--* BCOMINTR //* 3/02 M. 430.96 /* 3/03 T. 428.11 /* 3/04 W. 436.30 /* 3/05 T. 428.49 /* 3/06 F. 436.69 /--* SPGSAG //* 3/02 M. 352.35 /* 3/03 T. 352.51 /* 3/04 W. 351.11 /* 3/05 T. 356.71 /* 3/06 F. 366.26 /--* SPGSPM //* 3/02 M. 7,142.87 /* 3/03 T. 6,868.84 /* 3/04 W. 6,879.12 /* 3/05 T. 6,803.18 /* 3/06 F. 6,927.61 /-----* WTI Crude Oil. //* 3/02 M. 71.23 /* 3/03 T. 74.56 /* 3/04 W. 74.66 /* 3/05 T. 81.01 /* 3/06 F. 90.90 /--* HH Natural Gas //* 3/02 M. 2.960 /* 3/03 T. 3.054 /* 3/04 W. 2.917 /* 3/05 T. 3.003 /* 3/06 F. 3.186 /-----* Key Economic Events //* 3/11 W. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February /* 3/12 T. Producer Price Index (PPI) & Jobless Claims /* 3/13 F. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prelim) /--* Key Earnings Releases //* 3/09 M. ZIM Integrated Shipping (ZIM) /* 3/10 T. Oracle Corp (ORCL) /* 3/11 W. Wednesday: Groupon (GRPN) /* 3/12 T. Adobe Inc (ADBE) /* 3/13 F. Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) /-----The complete audio transcript will be accessible at the following link: https://wallstreetweek.substack.com/ when it becomes available.