2026 Commercial Real Estate Outlook: Interest Rates, Refinancing Walls, and Where CRE Wins Next

Criterion breaks down key macro trends heading into 2026—why industrial is stabilizing, office is stuck in a new normal, and retail is quietly the tightest sector—then closes with a “Worst Deal of the Week” teardown of a low-yield McDonald’s ground lease. Time Stamps: 0:00 Quick banter + game setup 0:24 Episode intro + why Criterion is doing quarterly investor meetups 1:26 Dallas investor meetup announced (March 26) 1:47 “I Call BS” game begins (money/markets/real estate facts) 3:53 Build vs buy stabilized assets discussion 4:59 Wealth concentration question + savings timing scenario 7:21 NBA vs billionaire odds question + game results 8:10 Macro trends heading into 2026 overview (stabilizing markets, rates) 9:06 Industrial outlook: vacancy stabilization, build-to-suit shift, data centers 11:26 Office outlook: vacancy ceiling, conversions, refinancing wall, flight to quality 13:31 Retail outlook: lowest vacancy, limited new supply, rent growth, lease strategy 15:28 New segment: “Worst deal we saw this week” 15:53 McDonald’s ground lease teardown (3.5 cap, no depreciation, weak growth) 18:15 Wrap-up + next episode teaser Ready to invest with Criterion? 👇 🌐 Learn more: https://www.thecriterionfund.com 📩 Join our investor list: https://www.thecriterionfund.com/join-our-investor-list 🔗 Find us everywhere: https://linktr.ee/thecriterionfund commercialrealestate #commercialrealestateinvesting #realestateinvesting #cre #syndication #realestatepodcast #passiveincome #wealthbuilding #cashflow #investor bonusdepreciation #costsegregation #taxstrategy #realestatetaxes #opportunityzones #1031exchange #qbideduction #section179 #saltDeduction #capitalgains caprate #netoperatingincome #valueadd #retailrealestate #shoppingcenter #tripleNet #NNNlease #localbanks #privateequityrealestate #investingeducation