2026 Predictions: corporate governance ghosting, CEO retentions, mass labor movements

Damion 2026 PredictionsThe "Ghost Board" MovementFollowing the 2025 retreat from ESG, a major S&P 500 company (likely in the energy or defense sector) will successfully petition to keep its director bios private for "national security” or “personal safety reasons"Trend starts at a Big Data company using China as an excuse with a single, government-connected director whose identity is kept secret for “national security reasons”By mid-2026, "blind governance" becomes a trend where investors vote for directors identified only by a serial number and a list of "alpha-generating achievements"The “Ghost Board” movement ultimately backfires as shareholders start to vote against subpar achievementsBlackRock and State Street scrap public stewardship for private, encrypted channels with board chairs—Welcome to Dark GovernanceThe 100% Variable Pay CEOCEO Pay routinely targets $1B+ packages, using 100% “at-risk” pay as an excuseThe Rise of "Corporate Sovereignty" ZonesThink the SpaceX "Starbase" model: a major tech or manufacturing firm will strike a deal with a poor red state (like West Virginia or Mississippi, et al) to create a "Special Innovation District" or some other made up name likeAdvanced Innovation ZoneStrategic Innovation CorridorFreedom Technology DistrictAnti-DEI, Pro-ROI Innovation ParkInside these zones, the company provides the police, the utilities, and the "credits/scrip" used at the grocery storeThis revival of the 19th-century company town uses the excuse of "infrastructure efficiency" or “ESG-free zone”The Death of the “Public” Annual MeetingAfter the 2025 proxy season proved shareholders could still be annoying, companies codify mandatory virtual-onlyAI moderators pre-screen questions for “civility” and “relevance,” eliminating most investor dissentShareholders wishing to speak must demonstrate ownership of $1M+—because democracy is not for impoverished nunsElon Musk formally steps back from day-to-day operations at Tesla but calls it an “AI-enabled leadership leverage” and not a full resignation and thus keeps his pay package, with full board approval.Multiple large companies stop using the word “independent” in director bios, replacing it with “objective” or “experienced” or “industry-aligned” or “deeply informed.”Like Europe, board chairs increasingly become the primary public voice on operational and governance issues instead of CEOs, leading to a significant increase in chair pay.A sharp increase in director pay follows due to “heightened complexity and security issues.”The Jay Hoag effect: companies start to exclude attendance data from proxy statements.A company ties massive NEO bonuses to “AI adoption speed,” which becomes completely discretionary and unmeasurable. Starts in Big Data and then happens everywhereMatt 2026 PredictionsWill happen:Sam Altman is caught lying to investors (and no one cares)30% of the S&P 500 will seek to implement a “retail voting” program by the fallHighest retail vote companies: Tesla (~30%), Intel (~30%), AT&T (~30%), Exxon (~30%), Apple (~30%), Pfizer (~30%), Verizon (~25%) - real paragons of board independenceCompanies where executives are suggesting college degrees or elite college degrees are “stupid” do not stop hiring largely from pools of people who have college degrees and/or went to elite colleges25% of CEO pay packages in the US move to “3 year vesting, pretend moonshot, billion plus, no clawback, no strings”Jay Hoag will not be voted off the Netflix boardIn the absence of engagement, precatory proposals, or other shareholder rights, there is one thing for shareholders left: vote no on director campaigns from NON ACTIVISTS (by which I mean institutional investors / pension funds with less than 5% or 13G filers)Specifically - there will be a 150% increase in exempt solicitationsAt least 10% of US large cap companies will have AI “board advisors” - bots that advise boards on legal and governance issuesCould happen:Mass labor movementThe 2025 “badge of honor” that was layoffs, the absolute bonanza of CEO pay, the explosion of “AI billionaires” and “AI took your job” stories, and the attempt to crush labor rights will escalate into the first violent confrontation between employees and their corporate overlordsWidespread strikes will hit, but in the least likely of places: tech and finance, where employees are replaced with AI faster than in other sectorsNatural outgrowth of the “it’s someone else’s fault” movement - everything is someone else’s fault, not management’s fault, with the primary culprit of lazy employees - we fired you and it’s your fault, not oursThe anti-woke go woke and realize how much data they don’t have, but need, to be anti-wokeAt least 1 large company announces it will no longer produce any employee metrics at all, not the count of employees, the names of executives (except where demanded by regulation), or any information that people work thereWith Oracle pioneering the co-Vice Chair and co-CEO roles on the board, and Target pioneering the underperforming executive chair, we see the first round of “Co-Executive Chairs” where the new ex-CEO stays on the board just under the old ex-CEOSeems absurd, but entirely possible:The first billion dollar option pay package for a non-executive director (7 year vest, zero at risk for performance)JPMorgan’s new AI proxy voting robot starts an activist campaign seeking to vote out the Tesla boardA US board pays a “retention bonus” worth $20m in options due to the threat of Trump administration intervention and the CEO is close with the administrationExxon will add “shareholder demands” as a risk in their annual report