203. Peak Solar - nov25

An episode of the Redefining Energy podcast, hosted by Laurent Segalen and Gerard Reid, titled "203. Peak Solar - nov25" was published on November 10, 2025 and runs 29 minutes.

November 10, 2025 ·29m · Redefining Energy

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Summary

Solar energy has experienced explosive growth over the past five years — doubling in capacity outside of China and quadrupling within China. But with this rapid expansion come new concerns: Are we scaling too quickly? And is the proliferation of solar now starting to strain power grids, creating more problems than solutions?Enter the concept of the “3 Cs” — Congestion, Curtailment, and Cannibalization — a term coined by Richard Sverisson at Montel. It captures the growing pains of an energy system being transformed at unprecedented speed.To unpack this, Laurent and Gerard welcome one of the world’s leading voices in solar energy: Sam Wilkinson, Head of Renewables at S&P Global Commodity Insights. Sam leads a team of 20 global experts focused on analysing and forecasting trends across renewable energy markets, policy, and infrastructure. Their insights, developed in close collaboration with industry stakeholders, are critical for understanding where the solar market is heading.Notably, Sam and his team are forecasting a 100GW decline in new solar capacity in 2026 compared to 2025 — introducing the idea of "Peak Solar."In this conversation, we explore what “peak solar” really means: its causes, how it might unfold, and the ripple effects on the global supply chain. But it’s not all bad news. Market consolidation, geographic diversification, and ongoing innovation in solar technology are helping the industry navigate challenges. As costs continue to fall and accessibility improves, solar remains a cornerstone of the global energy transition.Expect a technical yet insightful discussion on the current headwinds — and future opportunities — in the solar energy sector.

Episode Description

Solar energy has experienced explosive growth over the past five years — doubling in capacity outside of China and quadrupling within China. But with this rapid expansion come new concerns: Are we scaling too quickly? And is the proliferation of solar now starting to strain power grids, creating more problems than solutions?

Enter the concept of the “3 Cs” — Congestion, Curtailment, and Cannibalization — a term coined by Richard Sverisson at Montel. It captures the growing pains of an energy system being transformed at unprecedented speed.

To unpack this, Laurent and Gerard welcome one of the world’s leading voices in solar energy: Sam Wilkinson, Head of Renewables at S&P Global Commodity Insights. Sam leads a team of 20 global experts focused on analysing and forecasting trends across renewable energy markets, policy, and infrastructure. Their insights, developed in close collaboration with industry stakeholders, are critical for understanding where the solar market is heading.

Notably, Sam and his team are forecasting a 100GW decline in new solar capacity in 2026 compared to 2025 — introducing the idea of "Peak Solar."

In this conversation, we explore what “peak solar” really means: its causes, how it might unfold, and the ripple effects on the global supply chain. But it’s not all bad news. Market consolidation, geographic diversification, and ongoing innovation in solar technology are helping the industry navigate challenges. As costs continue to fall and accessibility improves, solar remains a cornerstone of the global energy transition.

Expect a technical yet insightful discussion on the current headwinds — and future opportunities — in the solar energy sector.