206: The Realities on the Ground

As expected, the government roll out of the multi-trillion dollar stimulus program to save the economy has been sloppy and slow. People who need to tap into unemployment insurance can't get through on the phone. Businesses who need money can't get the money they applied for and, when they do, the terms are very unclear. Some businesses have given up. Rather than take a big loan from the government to their grave, they have decided to call it quits while behind. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial average showed a remarkable turn-around over the last couple weeks after dipping down below 19,000. That's great if you have money in the market but, quite frankly, I don't understand the rally. Most businesses are closed so how could their stock be worth more than it was two weeks ago? We still aren't clear of when this pandemic and all of its stay-at-home orders will end. Even when it does, that's really just the beginning. People aren't going on vacation or sports events or concerts until there is a vaccine. That's not going to happen for a while. When the economy "opens up", it will only be half-open and certainly not running on all gears. Thousands of small businesses will not survive this ordeal and that will leave many unemployed. I would not be shocked to see double digit unemployment going into the end of the year. From an economic standpoint, we are at the very beginning of the fallout. So why is that stock market going up again? I suspect most people who are buying into this market right now aren't small business owners or facing the prospect of losing a job. There is a fundamental disconnect between the markets and reality. For those of us who are small business owners or real asset investors, we have a little bit better perspective. If you have a small business and employees to pay, you may understand that there is a possibility that you may not recover from this event. If you own residential real estate right now, you get the idea of what your tenants are going through and how that is affecting your ability to collect rent. If you aren't well capitalized, you are freaking out. I hope you don't lose any property, but I can pretty much guarantee you that distressed assets will become common in the not-so-distant future. The earthquake just happened. The tsunami of financial fall-out has yet to arrive. To get a better perspective of what's going on the ground, this week's Wealth Formula Podcast features a conversation between another physician podcaster and me. Join us as we talk about not only the COVID-19 disease, but the real time economic impact both of us are seeing on our businesses and investments.