210. Our Predictions for 2026

An episode of the Redefining Energy podcast, hosted by Laurent Segalen and Gerard Reid, titled "210. Our Predictions for 2026" was published on January 5, 2026 and runs 33 minutes.

January 5, 2026 ·33m · Redefining Energy

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Summary

Happy New Year energy nerdsAs tradition demands (and lawyers insist), the first episode of the year is the annual ritual where Gerard, Laurent, and Michael boldly predict the future of the energy transition… and then publicly roast themselves for last year’s bad calls.Before unleashing our 2026 Predictions, we do a mandatory rewind to the crystal-ball disasters of 2025: The 2025 prophecy graveyard:US oil production down in 2025 (MB — bold, brave… wrong)Oil at $40/bbl in 2025 (GR — oof)Geopolitics + broken supply chains + energy chaos = a better, more innovative world (LS — still hoping)A bloodbath for hydrogen in transportation (MB — disturbingly accurate)Record installs: Solar 700GW, EVs 20m, Batteries 200GWh (spot on)The death of all things labelled ESG, Climate, and Carbon (LS — prematurely optimistic)Scorecard: Gerard absolutely nailed Silver: from $30/oz to $60/oz in 18 months. BP technically survived 2025… but welcomed a new CEO, so partial credit at best.Michael wins overall, which he will remind us of repeatedly. After heroic levels of co-host sabotage, Laurent loses again, as is now canon.Our 2026 Predictions:🔥 China battery systems at $40/kWh, full-system LFP (MB)🔥 Half of all announced datacenters will never be built — welcome to the credit + grid crisis (LS)🔥 Wind and solar installs DOWN in 2026 vs 2025 (GR — spicy)🔥 20GW of solar in Africa in 2026 (MB)🔥 The GhG Protocol revision fight gets ugly, personal, and possibly litigious (LS)🔥 LNG glut creates stranded assets everywhere: flat demand, too much supply, tears on spreadsheets (GR)And yes, plenty more hot takes, bruised egos, and inconvenient truths to kick off the year the right way.🎙️ Welcome to 2026. Let’s redefine energy.

Episode Description

Happy New Year energy nerds

As tradition demands (and lawyers insist), the first episode of the year is the annual ritual where Gerard, Laurent, and Michael boldly predict the future of the energy transition… and then publicly roast themselves for last year’s bad calls.

Before unleashing our 2026 Predictions, we do a mandatory rewind to the crystal-ball disasters of 2025: The 2025 prophecy graveyard:

US oil production down in 2025 (MB — bold, brave… wrong)
Oil at $40/bbl in 2025 (GR — oof)
Geopolitics + broken supply chains + energy chaos = a better, more innovative world (LS — still hoping)
A bloodbath for hydrogen in transportation (MB — disturbingly accurate)
Record installs: Solar 700GW, EVs 20m, Batteries 200GWh (spot on)
The death of all things labelled ESG, Climate, and Carbon (LS — prematurely optimistic)

Scorecard: Gerard absolutely nailed Silver: from $30/oz to $60/oz in 18 months. BP technically survived 2025… but welcomed a new CEO, so partial credit at best.

Michael wins overall, which he will remind us of repeatedly. After heroic levels of co-host sabotage, Laurent loses again, as is now canon.
Our 2026 Predictions:
🔥 China battery systems at $40/kWh, full-system LFP (MB)
🔥 Half of all announced datacenters will never be built — welcome to the credit + grid crisis (LS)
🔥 Wind and solar installs DOWN in 2026 vs 2025 (GR — spicy)
🔥 20GW of solar in Africa in 2026 (MB)
🔥 The GhG Protocol revision fight gets ugly, personal, and possibly litigious (LS)
🔥 LNG glut creates stranded assets everywhere: flat demand, too much supply, tears on spreadsheets (GR)

And yes, plenty more hot takes, bruised egos, and inconvenient truths to kick off the year the right way.

🎙️ Welcome to 2026. Let’s redefine energy.