#236: Hello junk

Hello junk

Simon Shares

• Fees feedback. Seems some active managers are getting serious about fees. But still not 100% in favour of client who pays the fees and some have done odd things. But nobody came back and said my ideas of last week were truly horrid, nor eve slightly horrid.
• Just last week I was commenting that my odds of a downgrade to junk were retreating. Still above 50%, but only just. Then Gordhan arrest and odds increase again, I think chance of a downgrade to junk is now around 61%.
• Important dates;
  • 26 October - Mid Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS)
  • 2 November - Gordhan to appear in court on fraud charges
  • 24 November MPC rate decision
  • 2 December - SP announce SA credit rating
  • 6 December - GDP for Q3 2016
• Calgro M3 (JSE code: CGR) disappointed, I am not selling but waiting for results to see details.
• Taste Holdings (JSE code: TAS) results have lots of moving parts, but they're burning cash at a rapid rate and need to get profitable otherwise they run out. Potentially a good business, but first we need to see the profits kicking I and food (even at core level) needs to start turning real profits wit the new brands.
• Up coming events;
  • JSE Power Hour: 13th at 5,30 - Investing in listed property
  • JSE Power Hour: 20th at 5.30pm - New offshore ETFs from CoreShares
• Trading Master Class, mastering binary options with a follow up webcast on Tuesday at 4pm.

Brexit

• Time line, late 2018 / early 2019
• Sterling? Weaker for longer?
• Trade, surely they will get good tarde deals with major partners?
• Movement of people, this is going to be a problem?
• City of London, does it move elsewhere? But where? Europe has language barriers so New York?
• Economy? Surely weak for a while? Longer term = probably do fine, no shooting the lights out.
• Bottom line is that free movement of people and goods is good for capitalism. The UK is moving away from free movement, that's not good.

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