#240 – Samuel Charap on how a Ukraine ceasefire could accidentally set Europe up for a bigger war

from 80,000 Hours Podcast · host The 80,000 Hours team

Many people believe a ceasefire in Ukraine will leave Europe safer. But today's guest lays out how a deal could potentially generate insidious new risks — leaving us in a situation that's equally dangerous, just in different ways.That’s the counterintuitive argument from Samuel Charap, Distinguished Chair in Russia and Eurasia Policy at RAND. He’s not worried about a Russian blitzkrieg on Estonia. He forecasts instead a fragile peace that breaks down and drags in European neighbours; instability in Belarus prompting Russian intervention; hybrid sabotage operations that escalate through tit-for-tat responses.Samuel’s case isn’t that peace is bad, but that the Ukraine conflict has remilitarised Europe, made Russia more resentful, and collapsed diplomatic relations between the two. That’s a postwar environment primed for the kind of miscalculation that starts unintended wars.What he prescribes isn’t a full peace treaty; it’s a negotiated settlement that stops the killing and begins a longer negotiation that gives neither side exactly what it wants, but just enough to deter renewed aggression. Both sides stop dying and the flames of war fizzle — hopefully.None of this is clean or satisfying: Russia invaded, committed war crimes, and is being offered a path back to partial normalcy. But Samuel argues that the alternatives — indefinite war or unstructured ceasefire — are much worse for Ukraine, Europe, and global stability.Links to learn more, video, and full transcript: https://80k.info/sc26This episode was recorded on February 27, 2026.Chapters:Cold open (00:00:00)Could peace in Ukraine lead to Europe’s next war? (00:00:47)Do Russia’s motives for war still matter? (00:11:41)What does a good ceasefire deal look like? (00:17:38)What’s still holding back a ceasefire (00:38:44)Why Russia might accept Ukraine’s EU membership (00:46:00)How to prevent a spiraling conflict with NATO (00:48:00)What’s next for nuclear arms control (00:49:57)Finland and Sweden strengthened NATO — but also raised the stakes for conflict (00:53:25)Putin isn’t Hitler: How to negotiate with autocrats (00:56:35)Why Russia still takes NATO seriously (01:02:01)Neither side wants to fight this war again (01:10:49)Video and audio editing: Dominic Armstrong, Milo McGuire, Luke Monsour, and Simon MonsourMusic: CORBITTranscripts and web: Nick Stockton, Elizabeth Cox, and Katy Moore

NOW PLAYING