267 - Modelling Fire Growth with Stephen Welch

Pretty CFD flames are something we got used to, but they usually are a product of our design assumptions - the design fire. While they give us a lovely illusion of being "real" fires, predicting real compartment fire growth is a completely different game. We’re joined by Dr. Stephen Welch (University of Edinburgh) to get honest about what “modeling fire spread” actually means, how quickly results can become believable but wrong, and why validation has to be the foundation of any serious CFD fire modeling workflow. We walk through the path his group has taken from traveling fires in large compartments to timber-lined compartment behavior, using FDS and detailed pyrolysis models. Along the way we talk about scaling up from cone and crib experiments, why wood sticks burn differently than flat timber, and why calibrated kinetics are often engineering tools rather than universal material truths. We also dig into the uncomfortable reality of scenario uncertainty: moisture, stick variability, crib deformation, and tiny geometric changes can meaningfully shift predictions. One of the most practical takeaways is how opening location and ventilation momentum reshape fire spread, sometimes in ways classic simplified models won’t anticipate. We explore entrainment height, hot layer effects, soot and radiative fraction, and what it might take to credibly predict burnout and post-burner behavior in timber-lined compartments. If you care about structural fire design, traveling fire exposure, and the future of validated predictive modeling, this one is for you. After this one, you will have a lot of reading... Start with these: Liu, C., Dai, X., Ming, X.M. & Welch, S. (2026) Exploring fire dynamics of travelling fires in large open compartments with CFD, Fire Safety Journal 104663 (special issue IAFSS2026) doi:10.1016/j.firesaf.2026.104663 Liu, C., Dai, X., Ming, X.M. & Welch, S. (2025) CFD predictions of fire spread over wood cribs in large open-plan compartments: new insights, Fire Safety Journal special issue 156: 104443 doi:10.1016/j.firesaf.2025.104443 Dai, X., Alam, N., Liu, C., Nadjai, A., Rush, D. & Welch, S. (2024) “Scaling-up” fire spread on wood cribs to predict a large-scale travelling fire test using CFD, Advances in Engineering Software 189: 103589 doi: 10.1016/j.advengsoft.2023.103589 Dai, X., Gamba, A., Liu, C., Anderson, J., Charlier, M., Rush, D. & Welch, S. (2022) An engineering CFD model for fire spread on wood cribs for travelling fires, Advances in Engineering Software 173:103213 doi: 10.1016/j.advengsoft.2022.103213 And the cover image comes from the image in paper [2], Fig. 17. Stephens papers are full of beautiful images. Another reason to check them out. ---- The Fire Science Show is produced by the Fire Science Media in collaboration with OFR Consultants. Thank you to the podcast sponsor for their continuous support towards our mission.