#27 Foreign Policy Polling Insights with Alex Tarascio

Send us a text In this episode of 'At the Water's Edge,' host Scott interviews Alex Tarascio, a pollster from Cygnal, a private GOP polling firm known for its accuracy. They discuss the intricacies of polling, the differences between private and public polling, and the impact of partisanship on polling results. Alex shares insights on current voter sentiment, the role of corporate clients, and the challenges of polling on national security and foreign policy issues. The conversation also touches on the disconnect between military perspectives and public opinion, the future of national security issues in polling, and the importance of political accountability in democracy promotion. As they look ahead to the midterms, they explore key trends and issues that may influence voter behavior. Contact the Show: [email protected] Cygnal Polling: https://www.cygn.al/ Magpie Spice Co: https://www.instagram.com/magpiespice/ takeaways Polling accuracy has improved significantly since 2016. Private polling firms have different incentives than public ones. Voter sentiment on national security is low, around 5%. Partisanship heavily influences polling results and methodologies. Benchmarking polls serve different purposes than public polls. Corporate clients can impact the type of polling conducted. Young women are becoming disengaged from politics and news. The issue of abortion is losing its significance in voter motivation. Public perception of tariffs is mixed, with many preferring free market solutions. Political accountability is essential for effective democracy promotion. Chapters 00:00Introduction to Polling and Alex Tarascio 04:45The Evolution of Polling Post-2016 07:47The Impact of Partisanship on Polling 10:41Confidentiality and Trust in Polling 13:39Public vs. Private Polling Approaches 16:35National Voter Trends and Current Polling Insights 19:33Sampling and Its Importance in Polling 22:37Corporate Clients and Political Affiliations 25:39Trump's Favorability and Public Perception 28:36Tariffs and Public Opinion 30:35Understanding Partisan Dynamics in Polling 32:42The Impact of Tariffs on Public Opinion 34:47National Security and Foreign Policy in Polling 38:07Public Sentiment on Foreign Policy Issues 41:02The Shift in American Foreign Policy Perspectives 44:01The Role of Political Diversity in Democracy Promotion 49:20Challenges in U.S. Foreign Assistance Programs 53:12Polling Insights for Upcoming Elections 01:01:29Engaging with Signal's Work and Personal Projects Support the show