#31. HODL Me Closer, Tiny Senator

Send us Fan MailIn Episode 31, the crew bounces between markets, politics, economics, and geopolitics, with a recurring theme: when should you hold a position versus panic-selling too early?The episode opens with discussion around the eye-popping valuation of SpaceX and whether retail investors are already too late to the party. That leads into a broader conversation about market bubbles, recession risks, and whether current optimism is masking deeper economic vulnerabilities. The hosts then celebrate a pair of Canadian prediction-market wins: Canada's entry into a technical recession and Alberta's referendum-related political drama. The discussion turns into a self-deprecating lesson about selling positions too early versus simply holding and letting the thesis play out. From there, attention shifts to the 2026 U.S. midterms. The team analyzes key Senate races, including Maine and Texas, debates whether Democrats are gaining momentum, and discusses how scandals appear to affect voters differently than they once did. Their "If You Had To" segment focuses on which party will control the Senate after the 2026 elections, with all three leaning Democratic. The conversation then pivots to early positioning for the 2028 presidential race. The hosts debate candidates ranging from Wes Moore and Kamala Harris to long-shot bets and speculative market plays, arguing that much of the value lies in identifying future contenders before the broader market catches on. The final segment dives into the evolving Russia–Ukraine war. The hosts discuss how drone warfare has transformed the battlefield, the depletion of traditional armored forces, the strategic importance of Crimea, and the possibility of a ceasefire before winter. They explore prediction markets tied to negotiations, territorial gains, and the future direction of the conflict.