319: Predicting reduced-penetrance TP53 variants from functional assays and random forest models

Fortuno C et al., Human Genetics and Genomics Advances - TP53 germline variant analysis using functional assays finds reduced-penetrance variants have intermediate activity, higher frequency, later onset, and 106 predicted candidates. Key terms: TP53, reduced penetrance, Li-Fraumeni syndrome, functional assays, variant interpretation. Study Highlights:Using ClinVar curation and comparison to benign and pathogenic reference sets, the authors analyzed TP53 germline variants with multiple functional assays, bioinformatic predictors, immune-fitness scores, and gnomAD frequencies. Reduced-penetrance variants tended to show intermediate activity across Kato, Giacomelli, Kotler, and Funk assays and intermediate BayesDel/AlphaMissense/aGVGD scores, with higher allele frequencies than pathogenic variants. A random forest model trained on these features prioritized 106 additional ClinVar missense variants as potential reduced-penetrance candidates. Clinically, carriers of reduced-penetrance variants exhibited later average age at first cancer and weaker enrichment for core Li-Fraumeni phenotypes, supporting consideration of attenuated surveillance criteria. Conclusion:Reported reduced-penetrance TP53 variants display intermediate functional and bioinformatic signatures, higher population frequency, and later cancer onset, and a combined-feature predictive model identifies additional candidate reduced-penetrance variants for follow-up. Music:Enjoy the music based on this article at the end of the episode. Article title:Characteristics predicting reduced penetrance variants in the high-risk cancer predisposition gene TP53 First author:Fortuno C Journal:Human Genetics and Genomics Advances DOI:10.1016/j.xhgg.2025.100484 Reference:Fortuno C, Richardson ME, Pesaran T, McGoldrick K, James PA, Spurdle AB. Characteristics predicting reduced penetrance variants in the high-risk cancer predisposition gene TP53. Human Genetics and Genomics Advances. 2025;6:100484. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.xhgg.2025.100484 License:This episode is based on an open-access article published under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0) - https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Support:Base by Base – Stripe donations: https://donate.stripe.com/7sY4gz71B2sN3RWac5gEg00 Official website https://basebybase.com On PaperCast Base by Base you’ll discover the latest in genomics, functional genomics, structural genomics, and proteomics. Episode link: https://basebybase.com/episodes/tp53-reduced-penetrance-prediction QC:This episode was checked against the original article PDF and publication metadata for the episode release published on 2026-03-18. QC Scope:- article metadata and core scientific claims from the narration- excludes analogies, intro/outro, and music- transcript coverage: Audited sections describing TP53 reduced-penetrance variants, four functional assays (Kato, Giacomelli, Kotler, Funk), bioinformatic predictors (BayesDel, AlphaMissense, aGVGD), immune fitness, population allele frequency, a random forest model identifying additional candidates, and associated clinical implications.- transcript topics: TP53 and Li-Fraumeni syndrome background; Functional assays (Kato, Giacomelli, Kotler, Funk); Bioinformatic predictors (BayesDel, AlphaMissense, aGVGD); Immune fitness predictions; Population allele frequency (gnomAD); Random forest model and variant prioritization QC Summary:- factual score: 10/10- metadata score: 10/10- supported core claims: 6- claims flagged for review: 0- metadata checks passed: 4- metadata issues found: 0 Metadata Audited:- article_doi- article_title- article_journal- license Factual Items Audited:- Reduced penet...