#342: While New Supply Is Dropping… It Isn’t Coming To Save Your Rent Projections (and Bail Out Your Bad Deals)

In this Multifamily Minute episode, Axel pushes back on one of the most commonly repeated narratives in multifamily investing right now: that falling housing starts will automatically trigger rent growth and bail out investors who bought or underwrote aggressively. It's a thesis Axel hears constantly — across Sun Belt, Southwest, Texas, and increasingly even in lower-supply Northeast markets — and he thinks it dangerously oversimplifies what's actually driving rent dynamics in 2026.This episode is essential listening for any investor currently underwriting new deals with rent growth assumptions, or holding existing deals while waiting for supply to thin out and rents to rebound — and who needs a clear-eyed reality check on whether that thesis actually holds up.Join us as we dive into:Why "supply is falling so rents will rebound" is the most widely parroted — and most dangerously incomplete — thesis in multifamily investing right now.Why the Northeast was hit hardest on housing starts (down 25%+ year over year for the April '25 to April '26 comparison period) — and why the Midwest was the only region to see a bump.The monetary policy variable: the US grew its money supply by roughly 30% in two years post-COVID, and that injection — not structural demand changes — drove the majority of 2020–2022 rent growth.The population variable: for the first time in US history, the US recorded a net population decline in 2025 — driven by a hard pause on immigration, declining birth rates, and net deportations.The AI variable: a fourth factor nobody can yet quantify — AI-related disruptions to the job market — that could further dampen wage growth and renter demand.Why solving for supply while holding monetary policy, population, and economic variables constant is an incomplete and potentially misleading framework for underwriting rent growth.The practical implication: challenge the assumption before you underwrite moderate-to-aggressive rent growth, and model a scenario in which rents remain flat even as supply falls.Why this matters for existing deal holders in Sun Belt, Southwest, and Texas markets who are waiting for legacy supply to be absorbed before making hold/refi/sell decisions.Are you looking to invest in real estate, but don't want to deal with the hassle of finding great deals, signing on debt, and managing tenants? Aligned Real Estate Partners provides investment opportunities to passive investors looking for the returns, stability, and tax benefits multifamily real estate offers, but without the work - join our investor club to be notified of future investment opportunities.Connect with Axel:Follow him on InstagramConnect with him on LinkedinSubscribe to our YouTube channelLearn more about Aligned Real Estate Partners