347 | How to Calculate Investment Returns

Most investors think a 50% loss needs a 50% gain to recover. They're wrong — and that math mistake can destroy retirement plans. Brad and Jonathan unpack the deceptively simple mathematics of percentage returns and why statistical blind spots lead to massive financial miscalculations. The conversation centers on how losses hit harder than equivalent gains, why the sequence of returns matters more than average returns, and what safe withdrawal rates really mean when markets swing violently. They break down Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) and show how controlling expenses offers more certainty than predicting market performance. The episode concludes with a segment on teaching entrepreneurship to kids as a foundation for financial literacy. Chapters: Understanding Returns [00:01:31] How percentage returns work and common misconceptions. Percentage Loss vs. Gain [00:06:08] The asymmetric math behind gains and losses; a percentage loss affects initial investments more drastically than an equivalent gain. CAGR Explained [00:10:21] Compound Annual Growth Rate and its significance in investment planning. Safe Withdrawal Rates [00:15:04] The 4% rule and safe withdrawal strategies for retirement planning. Entrepreneurship for Kids [00:33:40] Teaching children entrepreneurial skills and how it translates to financial literacy. Key Quotes: "A 100% return is an extra $1,000; a 200% return means an extra $2,000." [00:05:06] "To recover from a 50% loss in the first year, you need a 100% return in the following year." [00:09:19] "The timing of market fluctuations is crucial for your investment outcomes." [00:13:05] "Control over your expenses is key to financial independence." [00:22:30] "Understanding the unknowns of the future is vital for financial planning." [00:32:35] Related Resources: Simple Startup Course M is for Money Book Mentioned Episodes: Making Portfolio Adjustments with Big Earn [00:24:54] Flexible Spending Rules [00:26:41] Keys to a Successful Retirement with Fritz Gilbert [00:27:21] Kids and Entrepreneurship - Annalise [00:40:11] Kids and Entrepreneurship - Ariana [00:40:11] ▶ Listen Next: Ep. 349 — Investment Returns: Paper vs Real Returns Explained | Essential Listening