#363 - Understanding Political Polling: A Dialogue with Brett Loyd

In this episode, Xavier Bonilla has a dialogue with Brett Loyd on political polling. They discuss what polls can and cannot tell us, sample size, random sampling, flex quotas, weighting variables, and sample characteristics. They talk about question order and wording on polling surveys, phone and online polling, internal vs. external polling and national vs. state polls. They talk about how pollsters got the 2016 election wrong, characteristics of a Trump voter, and education level. They talk about the 2020 and 2022 elections, why there was no red wave in 2022, and reproductive rights. They discuss the 2024 election, battleground states, Harris’s challenges, contrast between Republican and Democratic tickets, and VP picks. They also talk about the 2024 Senate outlook, the House, how to read polls, and many more topics. Brett Loyd is President and CEO of The Bullfinch Group and is leading researcher and campaign strategist. He has degrees in statistics and political science from Iowa State University and the University of Northern Iowa. He has worked on presidential, senatorial, congressional, and gubernatorial campaigns; national political committees; and corporate and issue campaigns. Website: https://www.thebullfinchgroup.com/ Get full access to Converging Dialogues at convergingdialogues.substack.com/subscribe