373. Separating Risk From Noise in 2026: Digesting Major Policy Shifts, Distress Early Indicators, Major Office Transactions & Moves

In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we kick off 2026’s first full trading week with a look at the headlines shaping CRE, housing, and the broader economy. We discuss President Trump’s proposal to limit institutional purchases of single-family homes, the year-end drop in mortgage demand, Treasury Secretary Bessent’s comments on potential Fed rate cuts, and Mamdani’s bankruptcy sale policy in NYC. We then dive into advanced CRE fundamentals, exploring what stress looks like before a default and identifying early warning signs in loan-level data, while expressing optimism for a year of deal-making driven by improving rates and market conditions. Finally, we break down the first major transactions of 2026, including AT&T’s headquarters move to suburban Dallas, Google’s long-awaited Austin office opening, and the office-to-residential conversion at 5 Times Square. Tune in nowEpisode notes: Economic Update: Housing Market & Oil Impact (1:49)JOLTS, Jobless Claims & Uncertainty in CRE: Will 2026 Be the Year of Transactions? (14:48)What Does Stress Look Like Before a Default and How to Spot Early Warning Signs? (19:25)AT&T Moving HQ to Dallas Suburb (28:41)SL Green Selling Minority Interest in 100 Park Avenue (35:09)Chicago Investor Buying San Francisco Office Tower in Half-Off Sale (37:55)Google Finally Moving into Austin Office Tower (40:11)5 Times Square Office-to-Resi Conversion (43:44)NYC Mamdani Bankruptcy Building Sale (45:11)Programming Notes (50:00)Shoutouts (52:21)Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected]. Follow Trepp: X: www.x.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp