374: Trying to Understand a Schizophrenic Economy

I am annoyed with this economy. That doesn't seem like a very professional thing to say but I don't know how else to express my feelings any better. You see, nothing really makes sense. Inflation has been as high as it has been since the 1980s. At first, the Fed didn't think it was real and then reacted by increasing interest rates at the fastest rate in American history. Businesses are feeling it. Corporate bankruptcies are at 2009 levels likely in response to illiquid lending markets. The commercial real estate market is paralyzed with blood starting to seep through the streets. But…last month's jobs reports showed that we added 339,000 jobs significantly exceeding expectations. WTF? It makes no sense at all. Why is the jobs report important for us? Well, because that's one of the variables that the Fed is looking at as they decide what to do with rates going forward. Inflation is down to 4 percent which is starting to feel comfortable, but a jobs report like that is going to give the Fed pause on being dovish going forward. So, I have no idea what to expect next. And if I have no idea what to expect then other businesses and investors are likely equally confused. And the problem with that is that uncertainty is what the markets hate the most. So…that's where we are at and that's why I am so annoyed. This week on Wealth Formula Podcast I interview an economist who teaches entrepreneurs. He's written a book on how we can start looking at the economy in a practical way. His perspective is a little different than the academics who run the Fed and it will be worth your time to hear what he has to say. Listen NOW